Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens Special Teams: A special teams play would be huge for either of these teams. Tom Zbikowski had a nice return last week and may be there best shot at a big return, unless the Ravens are able to put Ed Reed back for punt returns which would be a great move.

Titans Special Teams: The kick game is amongst the best in the league. Rob Bironas was perfect inside of 40 this year and hit 28 field goals overall. Craig Hentrich is a Pro Bowl Punter. Chris Carr is their best returner and he’s a pretty good one. They are not great at kick coverage.

Ravens on Offense: As I said last week, Joe Flacco is not going to beat a playoff defense. He was terrible against Miami and now has to face the markedly better Titan secondary. That means that somehow the Ravens will have to find some success against the Titans rush defense. They should use Leron McClain early and set up a possible late game home run by Willis McGahee.

Titans on Defense: With Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch both healthy the Titans defense should be able to interrupt the Raven O. McClain does his best running up the middle and he’s a big powerful runner, still it’s difficult to imagine him running through Haynesworth and that big Titans line. Tennessee does not create great pressure, though eliminating the run game is often enough to create the illusion of pressure on a QB. In the pass game Cortland Finnegan will man up with Derrick Mason and try to force Joe Flacco to find somebody else to throw the ball to.

Titans on Offense: It could read like a carbon copy of the Ravens offense. They are not going to ask Kerry Collins to carry the load here. The difference between he and Flacco is that Collins has a lot of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl Start. His best success in the pass game will come in the 10-15 yard range and especially to his tight ends. Their run game will be a polar opposite of Baltimore’s. They will use rookie Chris Johnson early and hope to catch Baltimore off guard with his explosiveness. If they can get a lead then they will use LenDale White to protect it.

Ravens on Defense: Look for Baltimore to try to exploit the absence of Pro Bowl Center Kevin Mawae by blitzing up the middle with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Both will also be key in the pass game. Lewis will often be assigned to cover Bo Scaife, the Titans leading receiver, and Reed will roam free and hope to get another playoff interception and hopefully touchdown. The Ravens are not going to give up big run plays easily either. They have been incredible against the run in recent weeks and are not likely to lose their focus in this one.

Summary: I could regret repeatedly going against the Ravens, but I’m going to do it again. These two teams match up so evenly on the field that you have to go to the sidelines to differentiate them. There stands Jeff Fisher with a home playoff game and I have to believe that’s going to be a difference maker here. This should be almost a mirror-image of their week 5 game. Not a lot of points or yards, but some big hits and lots of trash talking. Great January football.

Prediction: Titans 13, Ravens 10

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Special Teams: We didn’t see much out of Arizona’s Special Teams Unit last week, other than a very good performance from punter Ben Graham. The Cardinals struggled some in kick coverage.

Panthers Special Teams: John Kasay had another very good year, missing just 3 kicks. Punter Jason Baker was also consistently reliable. Not much happens in the return game when the Panthers play. They don’t have a great return game, but they are very good on coverage.

Cardinals on Offense: Arizona can only hope to run the ball as well as they did last week against Atlanta. The law of averages says it is unlikely. They face a much better, though not great, defense in Carolina this week. Look for Kurt Warner to put the ball up 38-45 times and find some success. Anquan Bolden’s status is still uncertain, but the Cardinals will still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston so the pass game will be fine.

Panthers on Defense: Carolina is not quite as good on defense as you might think from reputation. Julius Peppers had a resurgent season and came up with 14 sacks, but nobody else had more than six. They also don’t create a lot of turnovers. They will need to in this game. If they have success stopping the run, which they should, they have to make Warner regret airing the ball out constantly.

Panthers on Offense: There game plan will be similar to that of Atlanta last week. The difference is that Jake Delhomme is not a rookie and will not allow the Cardinals to get off the ball as quickly as they did against the Falcons.  DeAngelo Williams will have more success running the ball than Michael Turner did last week and Carolina will mix in rookie Jonathan Stewart. They had over 2,300 yards combined. Delhomme will take shots downfield for Steve Smith every chance he gets. Roddy White had 11 catches last week against Arizona, if Steve Smith does the same they are in trouble. The effect of Mushin Muhammad can not be underestimated in this game either.

Cardinals on Defense: Regardless of the snap count, the Cardinals need to hope to be as good on the line as they were last week. That opens up the opportunities for guys like Antrel Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie to make plays in the secondary. If Carolina gets desperate Delhomme tends to try to force the ball to Steve Smith, who often bails him out. The Arizona secondary needs to try to play the ball better than Smith in those situations.

Summary: Arizona has struggled going to the East Coast all year. They don’t just lose, they’re awful. Bolden being limited isn’t going to help and neither is the fact that they are playing such a well-balanced and experienced team. The two things that surprised me last week from Arizona, the run game and the defensive line, will not be as good this week and thus neither will the Cardinals.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles Special Teams: Kicker David Akers and punter Sav Rocca both had great weeks in Minnesota last week. It will tougher sailing this week in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. DeSean Jackson had a 60+ yard punt return last week and could be a difference maker in this game.

Giants Special Teams: They have the league’s oldest kicking duo in Jeff Feagles and John Karney, but both had very good years. One of the consequences of the Plax issue is that the Giants have quit using Domenik Hixon on kick returns which is a shame because he is there most explosive guy on that unit. They may want to turn to him in this must win game.

Eagles on Offense: They will need a better output from this unit this week. McNabb played okay last week, but his numbers are somewhat padded by the long screen pass near the end of the game to Westbrook. Speaking of Westbrook, he goes from the frying pan into the fire. He struggled last week against the Vikings and now must go against another top 10 rush defense. He has had success against the Giants in the past. In the passing game, McNabb needs to stretch the field more. His leading receiver last week was back-up tight end Brent Celek.

Giants on Defense: Part of the problem with the Giants lately is their sudden inability to pressure the QB. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are great pass rushers but have not had great success against Philadelphia this year. This is an underrated defensive unit, top 10 in every category, but the offense’s fall off recently has hurt the defense. They were used to playing a very short game as the Giants offense eats up a lot of clock. When the offense is off the defense falls off. One player in particular who needs to play better in January than he did in December is linebacker Antonio Pierce.

Giants on Offense: New York will obviously benefit from the return of Brandon Jacobs, the teams leading rusher. They will also give plenty of touches to Derrick Ward who also went for 1,000 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning will have to make some plays in this game as well. He has yet to find a number one that he trusts as much as Plax. Somebody has to step up in this game.

Eagles on Defense: The Eagles are no strangers to pressuring the QB. They do it well and in a variety of ways. It will be an interesting side note on this game to see whether Jim Johnson or Steve Spagnuolo is better at finding ways to catch a very familiar offense off guard. With no number one receiver to cover look for Asante Samuel to simply cut off a side of the field on Manning and hope that he forces one under pressure.

Summary: This should be a very competitive game as always. Neither team has a distinct advantage, because both know each other so well. I think the Eagles do more better right now than New York though. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, winning 4 of 5 and there is no intimidation going to the Meadowlands, because they do it every year. The Giants will be able to run the ball, though not as consistently as they’d like and big plays will be available downfield for McNabb and the Eagles.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers Special Teams: Much has been made about Mike Scifres performance against the Colts last week and for good reason. He put all six punts inside the 20. In a game like this in Pittsburgh, a good punt game is a must. On the downside, with Darren Sproles likely to carry the ball more, he probably won’t be used in the return game.

Steelers Special Teams: Jeff Reed continues to be a very good kicker, especially considering the environment he kicks in. The same can not be said for punter Mitch Berger, who has a very strong leg but put just 19 of his 66 kicks inside the twenty. The Steelers do not have  return man who makes plays, but they make up for it with a great coverage team.

Chargers on Offense: San Diego did not fare well on offense against the Steelers earlier this year. Points will not be easy to come by this time either. Philip Rivers continues to play well, in spite of the fact that his offensive line does not do a great job protecting him. That latter fact will be a problem against Dick Lebeau’s defense. San Diego will likely start Darren Sproles at RB and while he provides the potential from a big gain at any moment, it will be hard for him to carry the load against the big hitting Steelers defense. That means Michael Bennett will get plenty of looks.

Steelers on Defense: This is where they butter their bread. Nob0dy has looked good against this defense this year. They smother your running game and give you no time to throw the ball. They are the smartest defense in football as they seem to know what you’re going to do before you do it.

Steelers on Offense: Such glowing endorsements are not due this unit. I like Big Ben, but at the end of the day he had more turnovers than touchdowns and was sacked nearly three times per game. He has been very good at the end of games and that’s good enough for the Steelers, but it might not be good enough in a playoff game. The passing game is not helped by the fact that they have struggled to run the ball. Their leading rusher went for less than 800 yards and nobody averaged better than 4.2 per carry.

Chargers on Defense: This unit has played extremely well in recent weeks. They’re getting after the quarterback and making plays. They have improved quite a bit since the first meeting between these two teams, which could be scary for Roethlisberger.

Summary: As a caveat, I don’t think the Steelers are anywhere near as good as their record. They were 3-4 against playoff teams and two of those wins were over the Ravens, the second one very questionable. I think they were exposed by the Titans a couple of weeks ago and that will happen again this week.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 13