NFL Championship Weekend Preview

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Eagles Special Teams: The Eagles kicking game has been very good in the playoffs. David Akers has been perfect and punter Sav Rocca has done a masterful job in games where that was a big factor. The Eagles have not gotten a lot out of the return game and could certainly use some extra points in this game.

Cardinals Special Teams: The punt game has been good, and Neil Rackers has been okay. He has missed both attempts over 50 in the playoffs though. They have gotten nothing in their return game, particularly on punt returns. Like Philadelphia, in a game that figures to see 20+ scored by both teams, they could use great field position in this game.

Eagles on Offense: The most important thing for the offense right now is the health of Brian Westbrook. If he is not at least on the field and drawing attention, this offense becomes a lot more vanilla. The offense has struggled so far in the playoffs, with no rushing game and Donovan McNabb throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They have gotten great play from their defense, turnovers and one big play on offense in each playoff win. They will need more consistent offense and longer drives to keep a potent Cardinal offense off the field.

Cardinals on Defense: Arizona has gotten five sacks and forced nine turnovers in their two playoff wins. They are getting great play up front and it is enabling their playmakers in the secondary to do just that. If they can pressure Donovan and take DeSean Jackson out of the game, the loss of Westbrook will be a huge deal. They have not had anybody else step up on offense this year. Look for Arizona to put five defensive backs on the field and dare Philadelphia to run the ball.

Cardinals on Offense: The Cardinals have not run the ball quite as well as you may think in the past couple of weeks, but they have at least shown a committment to the ground game. It will be significantly tougher to stick to that against the Philadelphia run defense, which is far superior to those of Atlanta and Carolina. If Kurt Warner has time and all three of his 1,000 yard receivers healthy, he should have success against even a good Philadelphia secondary. Eli missed some open receivers last week, if Warner connects on those opportunities the Cardinals could shock the world.

Eagles on Defense: This unit has carried Philadelphia this far and will have to put in their best effort to go one game further. They are not playing an inexperienced turnover prone QB this week, or even a shaky Super Bowl MVP missing his favorite target. More importantly they are playing a far superior wide receiver corps to the ones they’ve seen thus far in January. They have the cornerbacks to cover them, if they can get a pass rush. They have just one sack in the playoffs. The Eagles will take away the run game fairly easily, the key will be what they do against the best passing attack in the NFL.

Summary: Anybody want to take the under on number of times that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt reminded the Cardinals they were underdogs at the Wild-Card Eagles? The key to this game is the first quarter. If Philadelphia can establish a run game and overpower the Cardinals early it could be over. If Arizona can overcome the jitters and come out of the first quarter with a lead, the butterflies will go away and they’ll be able to just play their game. I think Kurt Warner will keep a level head in this game and actually play well against the Eagles defense. They haven’t played an offense that was really clicking in two months, when New York beat them 36-30. Since then they’ve beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington, New York without Plax twice, Arizona at home, a dismantling Dallas team and the Vikings. This week they face an offense with all of their weapons and a QB who’s been here almost as often as McNabb. The same McNabb who is 1-3 in this spot and who’s only win was over Michael Vick in the freezing cold. The dome will be loud and Arizona will win a track meet.

PREDICTION: Arizona 34, Philadelphia 24

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens on Special Teams: The Ravens have been pretty good on special teams, especially considering they have an OLB returning punts. I’ll recommend again that they put Ed Reed back for punts at least a couple of times in this game.

Steelers on Special Teams: The Steelers played their best game of the season last week and that returned a kick return for a TD. Something which they hadn’t done all season. They could use another one this week.

Ravens on Offense: I believe this is the worst offense in the history of Championship Games. I know the 2000 Ravens were epic bad, but they at least had a veteran QB. The numbers from last week are mind boggling and probably speak to the fact that this unit has no business playing in this game. A QB can only not lose you the game for so long. Flacco is completing far less than half of his passes and throwing for less than 150 yards per game. I know he hasn’t turned the ball over, but how long will that be true if he plays that poorly against the league’s number one defense. Their run game has been equally bad, averaging as a team just 2.7 yards per carry and most of that is on one 48 yard run by McGahee.

Steelers on Defense: They will put eight in the box and double-team Derrick Mason, who has half of the receptions for the team this postseason. They will probably blitz a little less than often and just pray that Flacco tries to beat them. The Steelers defense gave up more than 17 points just 5 times this season and only twice in the second half of the year.

Steelers on Offense: They need to run the ball as often as they did last week, when Willie Parker had 146 yards on 27 carries. They won’t get the yards as easy this week, but Chris Johnson is similar to Parker and he was having great success against a possibly slowing down Ravens veteran defense. They also need to try to stretch the field more than Miami or Tennessee did against Baltimore. Look for them to use the pass early to set up the run.

Ravens on Defense: Playing as well as any defense I”ve seen since the same team in 2000. They’ve done almost nothing wrong in the last two weeks, despite getting no help from their defense. Saying they will have a good outing is somewhat obvious, but will it be good enough if they have their backs against a short field a couple of times this week. Can they depend on missed field goals and fumbles in the red zone for a second straight week?

Summary: I just refuse to believe that the Ravens can go to the Super Bowl with the pathetic effort they put on offense last week. They played the game to not lose instead of to win on that side of the ball and I don’t think that will work against a much more prepared for this level of game Pittsburgh team. The Ravens are still a QB away from being a Super Bowl team, but at least they have that guy on the roster now. Joe Cool just isn’t ready to win this game yet.

PREDICTION: Steelers 21, Ravens 10

Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens Special Teams: A special teams play would be huge for either of these teams. Tom Zbikowski had a nice return last week and may be there best shot at a big return, unless the Ravens are able to put Ed Reed back for punt returns which would be a great move.

Titans Special Teams: The kick game is amongst the best in the league. Rob Bironas was perfect inside of 40 this year and hit 28 field goals overall. Craig Hentrich is a Pro Bowl Punter. Chris Carr is their best returner and he’s a pretty good one. They are not great at kick coverage.

Ravens on Offense: As I said last week, Joe Flacco is not going to beat a playoff defense. He was terrible against Miami and now has to face the markedly better Titan secondary. That means that somehow the Ravens will have to find some success against the Titans rush defense. They should use Leron McClain early and set up a possible late game home run by Willis McGahee.

Titans on Defense: With Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch both healthy the Titans defense should be able to interrupt the Raven O. McClain does his best running up the middle and he’s a big powerful runner, still it’s difficult to imagine him running through Haynesworth and that big Titans line. Tennessee does not create great pressure, though eliminating the run game is often enough to create the illusion of pressure on a QB. In the pass game Cortland Finnegan will man up with Derrick Mason and try to force Joe Flacco to find somebody else to throw the ball to.

Titans on Offense: It could read like a carbon copy of the Ravens offense. They are not going to ask Kerry Collins to carry the load here. The difference between he and Flacco is that Collins has a lot of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl Start. His best success in the pass game will come in the 10-15 yard range and especially to his tight ends. Their run game will be a polar opposite of Baltimore’s. They will use rookie Chris Johnson early and hope to catch Baltimore off guard with his explosiveness. If they can get a lead then they will use LenDale White to protect it.

Ravens on Defense: Look for Baltimore to try to exploit the absence of Pro Bowl Center Kevin Mawae by blitzing up the middle with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Both will also be key in the pass game. Lewis will often be assigned to cover Bo Scaife, the Titans leading receiver, and Reed will roam free and hope to get another playoff interception and hopefully touchdown. The Ravens are not going to give up big run plays easily either. They have been incredible against the run in recent weeks and are not likely to lose their focus in this one.

Summary: I could regret repeatedly going against the Ravens, but I’m going to do it again. These two teams match up so evenly on the field that you have to go to the sidelines to differentiate them. There stands Jeff Fisher with a home playoff game and I have to believe that’s going to be a difference maker here. This should be almost a mirror-image of their week 5 game. Not a lot of points or yards, but some big hits and lots of trash talking. Great January football.

Prediction: Titans 13, Ravens 10

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Special Teams: We didn’t see much out of Arizona’s Special Teams Unit last week, other than a very good performance from punter Ben Graham. The Cardinals struggled some in kick coverage.

Panthers Special Teams: John Kasay had another very good year, missing just 3 kicks. Punter Jason Baker was also consistently reliable. Not much happens in the return game when the Panthers play. They don’t have a great return game, but they are very good on coverage.

Cardinals on Offense: Arizona can only hope to run the ball as well as they did last week against Atlanta. The law of averages says it is unlikely. They face a much better, though not great, defense in Carolina this week. Look for Kurt Warner to put the ball up 38-45 times and find some success. Anquan Bolden’s status is still uncertain, but the Cardinals will still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston so the pass game will be fine.

Panthers on Defense: Carolina is not quite as good on defense as you might think from reputation. Julius Peppers had a resurgent season and came up with 14 sacks, but nobody else had more than six. They also don’t create a lot of turnovers. They will need to in this game. If they have success stopping the run, which they should, they have to make Warner regret airing the ball out constantly.

Panthers on Offense: There game plan will be similar to that of Atlanta last week. The difference is that Jake Delhomme is not a rookie and will not allow the Cardinals to get off the ball as quickly as they did against the Falcons.  DeAngelo Williams will have more success running the ball than Michael Turner did last week and Carolina will mix in rookie Jonathan Stewart. They had over 2,300 yards combined. Delhomme will take shots downfield for Steve Smith every chance he gets. Roddy White had 11 catches last week against Arizona, if Steve Smith does the same they are in trouble. The effect of Mushin Muhammad can not be underestimated in this game either.

Cardinals on Defense: Regardless of the snap count, the Cardinals need to hope to be as good on the line as they were last week. That opens up the opportunities for guys like Antrel Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie to make plays in the secondary. If Carolina gets desperate Delhomme tends to try to force the ball to Steve Smith, who often bails him out. The Arizona secondary needs to try to play the ball better than Smith in those situations.

Summary: Arizona has struggled going to the East Coast all year. They don’t just lose, they’re awful. Bolden being limited isn’t going to help and neither is the fact that they are playing such a well-balanced and experienced team. The two things that surprised me last week from Arizona, the run game and the defensive line, will not be as good this week and thus neither will the Cardinals.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles Special Teams: Kicker David Akers and punter Sav Rocca both had great weeks in Minnesota last week. It will tougher sailing this week in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. DeSean Jackson had a 60+ yard punt return last week and could be a difference maker in this game.

Giants Special Teams: They have the league’s oldest kicking duo in Jeff Feagles and John Karney, but both had very good years. One of the consequences of the Plax issue is that the Giants have quit using Domenik Hixon on kick returns which is a shame because he is there most explosive guy on that unit. They may want to turn to him in this must win game.

Eagles on Offense: They will need a better output from this unit this week. McNabb played okay last week, but his numbers are somewhat padded by the long screen pass near the end of the game to Westbrook. Speaking of Westbrook, he goes from the frying pan into the fire. He struggled last week against the Vikings and now must go against another top 10 rush defense. He has had success against the Giants in the past. In the passing game, McNabb needs to stretch the field more. His leading receiver last week was back-up tight end Brent Celek.

Giants on Defense: Part of the problem with the Giants lately is their sudden inability to pressure the QB. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are great pass rushers but have not had great success against Philadelphia this year. This is an underrated defensive unit, top 10 in every category, but the offense’s fall off recently has hurt the defense. They were used to playing a very short game as the Giants offense eats up a lot of clock. When the offense is off the defense falls off. One player in particular who needs to play better in January than he did in December is linebacker Antonio Pierce.

Giants on Offense: New York will obviously benefit from the return of Brandon Jacobs, the teams leading rusher. They will also give plenty of touches to Derrick Ward who also went for 1,000 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning will have to make some plays in this game as well. He has yet to find a number one that he trusts as much as Plax. Somebody has to step up in this game.

Eagles on Defense: The Eagles are no strangers to pressuring the QB. They do it well and in a variety of ways. It will be an interesting side note on this game to see whether Jim Johnson or Steve Spagnuolo is better at finding ways to catch a very familiar offense off guard. With no number one receiver to cover look for Asante Samuel to simply cut off a side of the field on Manning and hope that he forces one under pressure.

Summary: This should be a very competitive game as always. Neither team has a distinct advantage, because both know each other so well. I think the Eagles do more better right now than New York though. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, winning 4 of 5 and there is no intimidation going to the Meadowlands, because they do it every year. The Giants will be able to run the ball, though not as consistently as they’d like and big plays will be available downfield for McNabb and the Eagles.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers Special Teams: Much has been made about Mike Scifres performance against the Colts last week and for good reason. He put all six punts inside the 20. In a game like this in Pittsburgh, a good punt game is a must. On the downside, with Darren Sproles likely to carry the ball more, he probably won’t be used in the return game.

Steelers Special Teams: Jeff Reed continues to be a very good kicker, especially considering the environment he kicks in. The same can not be said for punter Mitch Berger, who has a very strong leg but put just 19 of his 66 kicks inside the twenty. The Steelers do not have  return man who makes plays, but they make up for it with a great coverage team.

Chargers on Offense: San Diego did not fare well on offense against the Steelers earlier this year. Points will not be easy to come by this time either. Philip Rivers continues to play well, in spite of the fact that his offensive line does not do a great job protecting him. That latter fact will be a problem against Dick Lebeau’s defense. San Diego will likely start Darren Sproles at RB and while he provides the potential from a big gain at any moment, it will be hard for him to carry the load against the big hitting Steelers defense. That means Michael Bennett will get plenty of looks.

Steelers on Defense: This is where they butter their bread. Nob0dy has looked good against this defense this year. They smother your running game and give you no time to throw the ball. They are the smartest defense in football as they seem to know what you’re going to do before you do it.

Steelers on Offense: Such glowing endorsements are not due this unit. I like Big Ben, but at the end of the day he had more turnovers than touchdowns and was sacked nearly three times per game. He has been very good at the end of games and that’s good enough for the Steelers, but it might not be good enough in a playoff game. The passing game is not helped by the fact that they have struggled to run the ball. Their leading rusher went for less than 800 yards and nobody averaged better than 4.2 per carry.

Chargers on Defense: This unit has played extremely well in recent weeks. They’re getting after the quarterback and making plays. They have improved quite a bit since the first meeting between these two teams, which could be scary for Roethlisberger.

Summary: As a caveat, I don’t think the Steelers are anywhere near as good as their record. They were 3-4 against playoff teams and two of those wins were over the Ravens, the second one very questionable. I think they were exposed by the Titans a couple of weeks ago and that will happen again this week.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 13

Looking Back at Wild-Card Weekend

Arizona Cardinals 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

The Arizona Cardinals won a playoff game on Saturday.

The game set up and played out as a tale of two quarterbacks. Kurt Warner was the aging veteran who went from MVP to maybe he should retire in just three short weeks. Matt Ryan was the rookie with ice in his veins who would be unfazed by the big stage and pick apart a weak Arizona defense. Those beliefs were challenged on the very first possession for the Cardinals when Kurt Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 46 yard touchdown over two Atlanta defenders. He would soon add a 71-yard touchdown to Anquan Bolden that finally had the Cardinals fans and all of their doubters believing that they could be seeing the first home playoff win in Arizona Football History.

The game did not go as planned for Matt Ryan either. Though the rookie of the year did set a record for most completions by a rookie in a playoff game, it was his mistakes which will resonate for the next 6-8 months. Ryan was sacked in the end zone for a safety and turned the ball over three times. His fumble was returned for a touchdown by Antrel Rolle early in the third quarter, with Atlanta up 17-14, and changed the complexion of the game.

It may have been a mistake that can’t be measured in numbers that cost the Falcons the most. The Arizona Cardinals were clearly able to pick up a tip as to when the ball would be snapped. The Cardinals appeared to be offsides all day, as they were that much quicker off the ball than the Falcons offense. DE Bertrand Berry said on the Jim Rome Radio Show that Matt Ryan never changed his snap count. That is a clear rookie mistake and one that stifled the Falcon offense. Atlanta had just 60 yards rushing, in large part because the Cardinals were playing on their side of the line of scrimmage all day.

Who would have thought coming into the weekend that Edgerrin James would outrush Michael Turner? Not me. James had 78 yards rushing in what is likely his last home game as a Cardinal. The league’s second leading rusher, Turner, managed just 42 yards on 18 carries.

The QB match-up is less of a surprise. Warner proved once again why he is one of the most under-appreciated talents in the history of the game, going 19-32 for 271 yards and two touchdowns. He threw one interception that bounced off a receivers hands. Ryan was far from bad, throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but his turnovers loom as a very dark cloud over his first playoff game.

With Warner and James being the stars of the offense for Arizona, one has to note that playoff experience may have been an underrated factor going into this game. It won’t be easy for Arizona to have the same success in Carolina, but nobody gave them a chance this week either so who knows?

Atlanta can take solace in knowing that they best should be yet to come. They have a good coach, their franchise QB and an entire offense that looks set for a few years. With experience and some moves on defense they should be very good for the next 5-8 years.

San Diego Chargers 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

One Title. That’s what the Colts have gotten out of this nine year stretch of double digit victories. They have produced several hall-0f-famers, set records, and given their head coach security that he could work forever. Yet, they have just one title. The window is closing. Nothing lasts forever so you better take advantage of your opportunities. Just ask the Atlanta Braves. There’s no telling when it’s going to end.

A backup running back ran 22 yards through the Colts defense and once again ended the season of Peyton Manning and the Colts premature. Three MVP’s, one trophy. Not that Peyton was the reason the Colts lost. He wasn’t. The number reason for that was Darren Sproles. He finished with 328 all-purpose yards and has risen the question, are this year’s Chargers better off without LT?

It raises a question much older than that from Colts fans. Is it fair to have an overtime system where the MVP of the league never gets the ball in his hands with the game on the line? My opinion, if not stated before, is that this overtime system is the best fit for the NFL. The Colts had their chance to stop the Chargers. Of course, the officiating did them no favors. I don’t know that any of the calls were so bad that I’ll scream conspiracy, but the pass interference call was very close. The face-mask call on the play right before the TD may have deflated the defense which would explain the ease of the 22 yard scamper.

A somewhat improbable season continues for the Chargers. Nobody expected them to start 4-8 and once they did they were thought dead for the playoffs. They won all four games they had to win to get in and on Saturday night beat a playoff team for the first time all year. They have Sproles and their defense to thank for that.

The Chargers D held Indianapolis to just 17 points and one of those touchdowns came on the kind of bush-league crap only the Colts pull where they caught the defense switching personnel and scored on a 72 yard pass play. The Chargers atoned for that mistake when they sacked Peyton Manning on 3rd and 2 with time winding down to allow them another shot at overtime.

The Chargers now head east to Pittsburgh. The Colts will go home and try to figure out how, with so much talent, this team is only 7-9 in the playoffs in the Peyton Manning Era and has just 3 wins outside of the 2006 season.

Baltimore Ravens 27

Miami Dolphins 9

Ravens defenders caught almost as many passes as their receivers on Sunday. Ed Reed had as many touchdowns as the Dolphins. A Recipe for Victory in Baltimore.

The Miami Dolphins turned the ball over just 13 times in 2008, but thanks to an awesome performance from the Ravens defense, 2009 did not go so well. Chad Pennington threw four interceptions and they lost a fumble. Baltimore’s rookie head coach and rookie QB did what the Falcons could not. They won on the road in the playoffs, it was their 10th win in 12 games and their first playoff win in five years.

Miami’s season ends and they certainly have nothing to be ashamed of. After a 1-15 season in 2007 the Dolphins went 11-5 this year and won the AFC East. This game forces many to wonder if the fact that their schedule included the AFC and NFC West played a part in that turnaround.

The Ravens played Super Bowl caliber defense and special teams, their offense needs to earn those efforts this week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Yes, Eagles Fans, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have won another playoff game. Still want them gone? Well, maybe, but not just yet. Not until they get their shot at the Super Bowl Champion Giants, a team they beat just a few weeks ago in a place where they won that game.

After being shut down for 3 1/2 quarters and held to 58 total yards, Brian Westbrook had his biggest play of the year, going 71 yards on a screen pass to score the clinching touchdown. The Eagles also got a big play from their key off-season acquisition when Asante Samuel did what he does, returning an interception 44 yards for a touchdown.

The much maligned Andy Reid is now 9-6 in the playoffs and for those keeping track that is better than Tony Dungy in the same span. Though he does lack that elusive ring. A goal which is still very much alive this season thanks to his teams victory on Sunday.

The Vikings worst fears were realized…they are still a Quarterback away. Though Tarvaris Jackson played well against Arizona and Detroit, his lack of growth was on full display against the Eagles aggressive defense. He finished just 15-35 for 164 yards. The Vikings got a good performance from Adrian Peterson and the defense played well for most of the game. All of that was negated by a terrible performance at the most important position.