Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Eagles Special Teams: The Eagles kicking game has been very good in the playoffs. David Akers has been perfect and punter Sav Rocca has done a masterful job in games where that was a big factor. The Eagles have not gotten a lot out of the return game and could certainly use some extra points in this game.
Cardinals Special Teams: The punt game has been good, and Neil Rackers has been okay. He has missed both attempts over 50 in the playoffs though. They have gotten nothing in their return game, particularly on punt returns. Like Philadelphia, in a game that figures to see 20+ scored by both teams, they could use great field position in this game.
Eagles on Offense: The most important thing for the offense right now is the health of Brian Westbrook. If he is not at least on the field and drawing attention, this offense becomes a lot more vanilla. The offense has struggled so far in the playoffs, with no rushing game and Donovan McNabb throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They have gotten great play from their defense, turnovers and one big play on offense in each playoff win. They will need more consistent offense and longer drives to keep a potent Cardinal offense off the field.
Cardinals on Defense: Arizona has gotten five sacks and forced nine turnovers in their two playoff wins. They are getting great play up front and it is enabling their playmakers in the secondary to do just that. If they can pressure Donovan and take DeSean Jackson out of the game, the loss of Westbrook will be a huge deal. They have not had anybody else step up on offense this year. Look for Arizona to put five defensive backs on the field and dare Philadelphia to run the ball.
Cardinals on Offense: The Cardinals have not run the ball quite as well as you may think in the past couple of weeks, but they have at least shown a committment to the ground game. It will be significantly tougher to stick to that against the Philadelphia run defense, which is far superior to those of Atlanta and Carolina. If Kurt Warner has time and all three of his 1,000 yard receivers healthy, he should have success against even a good Philadelphia secondary. Eli missed some open receivers last week, if Warner connects on those opportunities the Cardinals could shock the world.
Eagles on Defense: This unit has carried Philadelphia this far and will have to put in their best effort to go one game further. They are not playing an inexperienced turnover prone QB this week, or even a shaky Super Bowl MVP missing his favorite target. More importantly they are playing a far superior wide receiver corps to the ones they’ve seen thus far in January. They have the cornerbacks to cover them, if they can get a pass rush. They have just one sack in the playoffs. The Eagles will take away the run game fairly easily, the key will be what they do against the best passing attack in the NFL.
Summary: Anybody want to take the under on number of times that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt reminded the Cardinals they were underdogs at the Wild-Card Eagles? The key to this game is the first quarter. If Philadelphia can establish a run game and overpower the Cardinals early it could be over. If Arizona can overcome the jitters and come out of the first quarter with a lead, the butterflies will go away and they’ll be able to just play their game. I think Kurt Warner will keep a level head in this game and actually play well against the Eagles defense. They haven’t played an offense that was really clicking in two months, when New York beat them 36-30. Since then they’ve beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington, New York without Plax twice, Arizona at home, a dismantling Dallas team and the Vikings. This week they face an offense with all of their weapons and a QB who’s been here almost as often as McNabb. The same McNabb who is 1-3 in this spot and who’s only win was over Michael Vick in the freezing cold. The dome will be loud and Arizona will win a track meet.
PREDICTION: Arizona 34, Philadelphia 24
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens on Special Teams: The Ravens have been pretty good on special teams, especially considering they have an OLB returning punts. I’ll recommend again that they put Ed Reed back for punts at least a couple of times in this game.
Steelers on Special Teams: The Steelers played their best game of the season last week and that returned a kick return for a TD. Something which they hadn’t done all season. They could use another one this week.
Ravens on Offense: I believe this is the worst offense in the history of Championship Games. I know the 2000 Ravens were epic bad, but they at least had a veteran QB. The numbers from last week are mind boggling and probably speak to the fact that this unit has no business playing in this game. A QB can only not lose you the game for so long. Flacco is completing far less than half of his passes and throwing for less than 150 yards per game. I know he hasn’t turned the ball over, but how long will that be true if he plays that poorly against the league’s number one defense. Their run game has been equally bad, averaging as a team just 2.7 yards per carry and most of that is on one 48 yard run by McGahee.
Steelers on Defense: They will put eight in the box and double-team Derrick Mason, who has half of the receptions for the team this postseason. They will probably blitz a little less than often and just pray that Flacco tries to beat them. The Steelers defense gave up more than 17 points just 5 times this season and only twice in the second half of the year.
Steelers on Offense: They need to run the ball as often as they did last week, when Willie Parker had 146 yards on 27 carries. They won’t get the yards as easy this week, but Chris Johnson is similar to Parker and he was having great success against a possibly slowing down Ravens veteran defense. They also need to try to stretch the field more than Miami or Tennessee did against Baltimore. Look for them to use the pass early to set up the run.
Ravens on Defense: Playing as well as any defense I”ve seen since the same team in 2000. They’ve done almost nothing wrong in the last two weeks, despite getting no help from their defense. Saying they will have a good outing is somewhat obvious, but will it be good enough if they have their backs against a short field a couple of times this week. Can they depend on missed field goals and fumbles in the red zone for a second straight week?
Summary: I just refuse to believe that the Ravens can go to the Super Bowl with the pathetic effort they put on offense last week. They played the game to not lose instead of to win on that side of the ball and I don’t think that will work against a much more prepared for this level of game Pittsburgh team. The Ravens are still a QB away from being a Super Bowl team, but at least they have that guy on the roster now. Joe Cool just isn’t ready to win this game yet.
PREDICTION: Steelers 21, Ravens 10
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