The Coaching Carousel

There will be 11 teams next year with new head coaches. At least. That will be the most in NFL History. Two Super Bowl Winning Coaches were Fired. Two Coaches with Rings Retired and seven other coaching positions were vacated.

 Mike Nolan was fired on October 20th by the 49ers. He had a little over 3 seasons as the Head Coach there and won less than 1/3 of his games. DC and Hall-of-Fame Linebacker Mike Singletary was given the interim job. Singletary led the 49ers to a winning record in the second half of the season. Singletary was given a four year contract after the season.

Nolan has already gotten a new job, as the defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos. I think there is actually a decent chance that he gets another shot at being the top guy for somebody if he does a good job there. He was respected for the effort he put in in the bay and he has a high-profile position now.

I think Singletary gets one year to turn the 49ers all the way around. That may not be fair, but with several Hall-of-Fame caliber coaches with ties to the 49ers being available next year Singletary might have to do something special to keep his job.

St. Louis was another team that made a change mid-season. Scott Linehan took over a team that was really not that bad and turned them into something much worse, winning just 11 games in over two years. He was replaced by Jim Haslett who went just 2-10 as interim coach, but did have the support of the team. St. Louis decided, however, to go with former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo who had been a hot candidate for a job all season long.

Linehan has signed on to be the new Offensive Coordinator in Detroit. He acquires some talent, though he certainly had that in St. Louis, and a Pro Bowl QB.

Spagnuolo takes over a team with a lot of question marks. The defensive ones are obvious and they are the ones that he will focus on first. Spagnuolo is great at creating schemes to pressure the QB and was brought in to make Chris Long worthy of his top 5 draft pick. On offense, Bulger is aging, Holt is leaving and Jackson is unhealthy. I look for Spags to push for a QB with their first pick.

The least surprising coaching dismissal of the off-season was certainly Rod Marinelli. After leading the Lions to the first 0-16 season in NFL History there was little hope of keeping his job. Marinelli was replaced by Jim Schwartz, who spent the last seven years with Tennessee and was the Defensive Coordinator of the second best defense in the league this year.

Marinelli actually gained respect throughout the league for the way he kept the Lions fighting no matter how bad things got. And they got bad. Immediately after his dismissal he became a candidate for a number of jobs in the league and settled in as the defensive line coach in Chicago.

Schwartz has perhaps the easiest job in the league this year. Win a game and you’ve improved, win 4 or 5 and you’re up for Coach of the Year. People in Detroit are hoping that Schwartz has the stroke to bring Albert Haynesworth with him. While that is unlikely his time in Tennessee suggests he should make Detroit a much more stable place to play and perhaps along with OC Scott Linehan turn around the eternally struggling Lions.

Romeo Crennell won 24 games in four seasons in Cleveland. This year was the toughest for Romeo because there were actually expectations for the Browns this year. He was replaced by another Belichek disciple in former Jets coach Eric Mangini.

Crennel is unlikely to receive another opportunity as a Head Coach. Things never really got turned around in Clevleland and this season certainly made last year’s 10-6 record look like a fluke. There was some possibility he could end up the DC in Cleveland, though the more likely scenarios are that he ends up back in New England or takes a year off and gets a DC position next year.

A somewhat surprising hiring, given that most considered his stint in New York to be a disappointment and he is viewed as a younger, whiter Romeo Crennel my many. The real question is what did the Browns see to convince them he was the right man for their job? Another question is who does Mangini make the starting QB? The office will certainly want Quinn, who will likely get the job, but the comparisons of Quinn to Pennington are undeniable and Mangini did not like Chad.

Mangini, of course, leaves the Jets. I’m not sure if he left them better or worse than when he got there. The firing seemed premature and was a little bit of a knee jerk reaction to the New York media. The new big guy in New York is a Big Guy. Rex Ryan, the former Ravens DC and son of Buddy Ryan.

Two years after being dubbed the Mangenius, Eric was Man-Gone. Obviously Mangini was tied to the Brett Favre experiment and dubbed at least partially responsible for it’s failure. Mangini landed on his feet much quicker than most.

Ryan has been a hot prospect for a Head Coach job for a couple of years after working his way up through the Ravens Defensive Coaching System. He finally gets his shot in the Big Apple. He is a cordial and likable interview which will go a long way in New York. He will have to make a decision on Brett Favre sooner than later whether he wants to admit it or not. This team was not far off, though they are aging in some key areas. He inherits a very good offensive line, a good young defense and Thomas Jones at HB, which are all positives.

After five years in New York and two years in Kansas City, Herman Edwards finally ran out of excuses. His quarterback was always hurt, his team was always young and they never signed the right Free Agents. All of that may be true, but so is his 54-74 record as a head coach. And yet, it took seven years for somebody to fire him. It may take just as long to replace him as the Chiefs can not seem to get over the fact that Mike Shanahan has no interest in coaching there right now. They have now began targeting Bill Cowher, apparently confused as to their current standing within the league. More likely options are Cardinals OC Todd Haley, Dolphins DC Paul Pasquireli and Chan Gailey.

Big Herm may well get another chance at a head coaching gig. He is a respectable guy with a lot of experience so his name is bound to come up. Personally, I’d like to see him get Gene Upshaw’s job. I think he would be a great guy to work with young players and help them understand their responsibilities to the game.

I’d go with Todd Haley. The Chiefs have some pieces in place on both sides of the ball and a good young coach is the perfect fit for them right now.

The Oakland Raiders will hire another head coach this offseason. Their sixth in a decade.  Lane Kiffin was unsurprisingly fired after going 5-15 in twenty games and replaced by Tom Cable who won 4 of 12 the rest of the way. Al Davis is now trying to find somebody to take the job. The usual suspects don’t apply here because none of them will work for Davis. It will also be hard to get a hot coordinator to take on this as their first coaching job.

Kiffin looks to go the Pete Carroll route. Though not entirely successful in the NFL he was able to use that experience to shoot himself into a high profile and highly sought after college job, as the new Head Coach of the University of Tennessee.

My pick to be the new Raider coach is Jim Fassel. He wants a job just bad enough to take this one. Al Saunders is another guy who could take this job.

Future Hall of Famer Mike Holmgren announced his intentions to step down from the position before this season and have Special Teams Coordinator Jim Mora Jr. take his post. He could not have imagined his final season would go the way it did, and it was a shame. In ten seasons Holmgren won five division titles and an NFC Title with Seattle. Mora Jr. is the former head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons.

Holmgren led two teams, Seattle and Green Bay, to the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl XXXI with the Packers. He already has a street named after him in Green Bay and could well get the same treatment in Seattle if they ever run out of dead rock stars. Holmgren will likely take a year or two off, depending on how long it takes for the job in San Francisco to open up.

Mora Jr. gets another chance at Head Coach after spending three years in Atlanta and accumulating a winning record. If Mora has matured any and can keep from saying stupid things in interviews he could be a good head coach. He takes over a team with a closing window and aging players. The draft will be very important for Seattle this year.

On January 12th Tony Dungy retired after more than three decades in the NFL as a player, assistant and head coach. He spent 13 seasons as a Head Coach, seven in Indianapolis. Dungy won more than 75% of his games coached in Indianapolis and led the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He will be replaced by Colts QB Coach Jim Caldwell.

Tony Dungy may just be the guy who can actually walk away from the game. He is already an ordained minister and would like to focus time on pastoral activities. After the suicide of his son a couple of years ago, he has put a renewed emphasis on his family life as well. I could easily see Dungy being able to stay out of the limelight, but hope that he eventually finds a way to work with the league. The NFL can always use a guy like Tony Dungy.

Jim Caldwell has no NFL Coaching or Coordinating experience. He spent eight years as the Head Coach of Wake Forest, but went just 26-63. You have to wonder if he got this job more because of his relationships with Dungy and Manning and less because of actual credentials. That said, he inherits a team managed by Peyton Manning so that side of the ball should be fine. Losing DC Ron Meeks is a big deal. Indianapolis has all of it’s cap tied up in four or five players so the defense is made up largely of guys that nobody else wants. While they’re never a top 5 defense, Meeks always made them good enough.

Jon Gruden was the most successful coach in Tampa history, winning 57 games in seven years and Super Bowl XXXVII. A collapse in which Tampa Bay lost it’s last four games and missed the playoffs cost him his job however. Tampa Bay promoted Raheem Morris to the head coaching job. Some think this was a reactionary move to keep Morris from taking a job elsewhere.

Gruden will likely get a head coaching job somewhere soon. The question is whether that will be in the NFL or College. He won’t take the Oakland job this season and does not appear to be a candidate in KC. Next year will bring more possibilities, but he will be in contention with other Super Bowl winning coaches for all of those jobs. My prediction is that in 2010, Jon Gruden is the Head Coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Morris was a candidate for several jobs in the off-season before being promoted by the Bucs. He was their secondary coach this year and helped them to the number one pass-defense ranking. The Bucs see him as being in the Mike Tomlin vain, and he is already popular amongst the team.

Certainly, the most surprising coaching change comes from the Mile High City, where Mike Shanahan was let go after 14 years, 146 wins and two Super Bowl rings with the Broncos. While this change came much more amicably than the one he had in Oakland it was still jarring none the less. Josh McDaniels will look to fill his very big shoes. McDaniels had been a defensive and offensive assistant for the Patriots, including being their offensive coordinator this year.

Shanahan was the greatest coach in franchise history. If he had stayed just that he may well still be there today. Mike Shanahan was not a great GM. He was downright bad at picking defensive players. D.J. Williams and Elvis Dumervil are the only ones he’s drafted in the last five years that have made any real impact. Still, the X’s and O’s of the Mastermind will be dearly missed and hard to replace. I look for Shanahan to be the Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys in 2010, if not sooner.

He’s very similar to Shanahan in some ways. He’s an offensive guy who comes to Denver from a dynasty-like team. He’s got a lot of offensive parts already in place, though who will be the running back is up for debate. He runs a much different offense than Shanny, with less bells and whistles and more straight-forward approach. On defense he and Nolan will run a 3-4, a drastic change for Denver, but one that would seem to benefit their current personnel. He will be expected to win very soon.

Raider Hater Going Forward36

Here is the State of The Nation.

This being Super Bowl week, that is what we will focus on. Here is the schedule for the week.

Tuesday: A look at all of the coaching moves made thus far in the offseason.

Wednesday: A Look at my top 50-26 of my All-Time Super Bowl Moments.

Thursday: 25-1 of my All-Time Super Bowl Moments.

Friday: A preview of Super Bowl XLIII

Saturday: Thoughts on the Hall of FAme Class of 2009.

Going forward this is the plan for the off season.

Mondays: A Breakdown of the Key Off-Season Moves of the Week.

Tuesdays: Top 50 Players at Each Position Continues with The Hater Countdown Series.

Wednesdays: A Raider Hater Editorial.

Thursdays: Draft News.

Fridays: Random Thoughts.

This will carry us through the Draft in April and we’ll figure out where to go from there. So tune in tomorrow for my look at the 11 coaching vacancies, their replacements and the two jobs still available.

Raider Hater Update

Beginning on Monday of next week, the Raider Hater Website will return on a full-time basis. Computer problems have really limited my ability to post in recent weeks. It sucks that it happened at the time of year with so much to report but life is life. I will introduce a new format on Monday, with a different theme for each day. I’m excited about the new beginning and I hope the readers enjoy it.

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Eagles Special Teams: The Eagles kicking game has been very good in the playoffs. David Akers has been perfect and punter Sav Rocca has done a masterful job in games where that was a big factor. The Eagles have not gotten a lot out of the return game and could certainly use some extra points in this game.

Cardinals Special Teams: The punt game has been good, and Neil Rackers has been okay. He has missed both attempts over 50 in the playoffs though. They have gotten nothing in their return game, particularly on punt returns. Like Philadelphia, in a game that figures to see 20+ scored by both teams, they could use great field position in this game.

Eagles on Offense: The most important thing for the offense right now is the health of Brian Westbrook. If he is not at least on the field and drawing attention, this offense becomes a lot more vanilla. The offense has struggled so far in the playoffs, with no rushing game and Donovan McNabb throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They have gotten great play from their defense, turnovers and one big play on offense in each playoff win. They will need more consistent offense and longer drives to keep a potent Cardinal offense off the field.

Cardinals on Defense: Arizona has gotten five sacks and forced nine turnovers in their two playoff wins. They are getting great play up front and it is enabling their playmakers in the secondary to do just that. If they can pressure Donovan and take DeSean Jackson out of the game, the loss of Westbrook will be a huge deal. They have not had anybody else step up on offense this year. Look for Arizona to put five defensive backs on the field and dare Philadelphia to run the ball.

Cardinals on Offense: The Cardinals have not run the ball quite as well as you may think in the past couple of weeks, but they have at least shown a committment to the ground game. It will be significantly tougher to stick to that against the Philadelphia run defense, which is far superior to those of Atlanta and Carolina. If Kurt Warner has time and all three of his 1,000 yard receivers healthy, he should have success against even a good Philadelphia secondary. Eli missed some open receivers last week, if Warner connects on those opportunities the Cardinals could shock the world.

Eagles on Defense: This unit has carried Philadelphia this far and will have to put in their best effort to go one game further. They are not playing an inexperienced turnover prone QB this week, or even a shaky Super Bowl MVP missing his favorite target. More importantly they are playing a far superior wide receiver corps to the ones they’ve seen thus far in January. They have the cornerbacks to cover them, if they can get a pass rush. They have just one sack in the playoffs. The Eagles will take away the run game fairly easily, the key will be what they do against the best passing attack in the NFL.

Summary: Anybody want to take the under on number of times that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt reminded the Cardinals they were underdogs at the Wild-Card Eagles? The key to this game is the first quarter. If Philadelphia can establish a run game and overpower the Cardinals early it could be over. If Arizona can overcome the jitters and come out of the first quarter with a lead, the butterflies will go away and they’ll be able to just play their game. I think Kurt Warner will keep a level head in this game and actually play well against the Eagles defense. They haven’t played an offense that was really clicking in two months, when New York beat them 36-30. Since then they’ve beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington, New York without Plax twice, Arizona at home, a dismantling Dallas team and the Vikings. This week they face an offense with all of their weapons and a QB who’s been here almost as often as McNabb. The same McNabb who is 1-3 in this spot and who’s only win was over Michael Vick in the freezing cold. The dome will be loud and Arizona will win a track meet.

PREDICTION: Arizona 34, Philadelphia 24

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens on Special Teams: The Ravens have been pretty good on special teams, especially considering they have an OLB returning punts. I’ll recommend again that they put Ed Reed back for punts at least a couple of times in this game.

Steelers on Special Teams: The Steelers played their best game of the season last week and that returned a kick return for a TD. Something which they hadn’t done all season. They could use another one this week.

Ravens on Offense: I believe this is the worst offense in the history of Championship Games. I know the 2000 Ravens were epic bad, but they at least had a veteran QB. The numbers from last week are mind boggling and probably speak to the fact that this unit has no business playing in this game. A QB can only not lose you the game for so long. Flacco is completing far less than half of his passes and throwing for less than 150 yards per game. I know he hasn’t turned the ball over, but how long will that be true if he plays that poorly against the league’s number one defense. Their run game has been equally bad, averaging as a team just 2.7 yards per carry and most of that is on one 48 yard run by McGahee.

Steelers on Defense: They will put eight in the box and double-team Derrick Mason, who has half of the receptions for the team this postseason. They will probably blitz a little less than often and just pray that Flacco tries to beat them. The Steelers defense gave up more than 17 points just 5 times this season and only twice in the second half of the year.

Steelers on Offense: They need to run the ball as often as they did last week, when Willie Parker had 146 yards on 27 carries. They won’t get the yards as easy this week, but Chris Johnson is similar to Parker and he was having great success against a possibly slowing down Ravens veteran defense. They also need to try to stretch the field more than Miami or Tennessee did against Baltimore. Look for them to use the pass early to set up the run.

Ravens on Defense: Playing as well as any defense I”ve seen since the same team in 2000. They’ve done almost nothing wrong in the last two weeks, despite getting no help from their defense. Saying they will have a good outing is somewhat obvious, but will it be good enough if they have their backs against a short field a couple of times this week. Can they depend on missed field goals and fumbles in the red zone for a second straight week?

Summary: I just refuse to believe that the Ravens can go to the Super Bowl with the pathetic effort they put on offense last week. They played the game to not lose instead of to win on that side of the ball and I don’t think that will work against a much more prepared for this level of game Pittsburgh team. The Ravens are still a QB away from being a Super Bowl team, but at least they have that guy on the roster now. Joe Cool just isn’t ready to win this game yet.

PREDICTION: Steelers 21, Ravens 10

Shanahan Owes Raiders Money Too?

By Garrett Barnes

Mike Shanahan a former Broncos and Raiders coach has had rumors surrounding him and the Raiders for years that the Raiders owe him money. And that’s true.  To be precise, they owe him $157,625, plus roughly 15 years of interest.  (In some jurisdictons, the pre-judgment interest rate would push the total amount due over $400,000.)

I know it just kind of makes you happy seeing this. Al Davis must just be suffering now that he is still paying one of his most sworn enemies. But what isn’t known (or at least hasn’t been reported) is that the Shanahan owes the Raiders money, too.

He actually owes the team $125,000 dollars. Though the amount isn’t technically due to be paid until 2025, it’s believed that his debt to the team is one of the reasons for his decision to never file a legal action aimed at compelling the franchise to pay what is owed to him.

So here is what confuses me. Why wouldn’t Shanahan just call it even and erase the $125,000 dollars that they owe him. There might be some legal problem with doing that but from what I am reading it would be perfectly okay to forgive the loan and reform the debt that the Raiders owe Shanahan. 

Though it’s unclear whether Shanahan has refrained from pushing the matter because of that specific angle, the fact remains that, for whatever reason, he hasn’t filed suit to recover the money owed to him which you would usually expect in a situation from this. 

It’s possible according to ProFootballTalk that he has opted instead to simply use the situation as a tool for generating good P.R. for himself, and further bad P.R. for a franchise that has seen plenty of it over the years, and in plenty of cases justifiably.

Either way, the Raiders are yet again stupid and apparently forgotten that it is sorta kinda totally illegal to not pay back a debt like this to Mike Shanahan. 

Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens Special Teams: A special teams play would be huge for either of these teams. Tom Zbikowski had a nice return last week and may be there best shot at a big return, unless the Ravens are able to put Ed Reed back for punt returns which would be a great move.

Titans Special Teams: The kick game is amongst the best in the league. Rob Bironas was perfect inside of 40 this year and hit 28 field goals overall. Craig Hentrich is a Pro Bowl Punter. Chris Carr is their best returner and he’s a pretty good one. They are not great at kick coverage.

Ravens on Offense: As I said last week, Joe Flacco is not going to beat a playoff defense. He was terrible against Miami and now has to face the markedly better Titan secondary. That means that somehow the Ravens will have to find some success against the Titans rush defense. They should use Leron McClain early and set up a possible late game home run by Willis McGahee.

Titans on Defense: With Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch both healthy the Titans defense should be able to interrupt the Raven O. McClain does his best running up the middle and he’s a big powerful runner, still it’s difficult to imagine him running through Haynesworth and that big Titans line. Tennessee does not create great pressure, though eliminating the run game is often enough to create the illusion of pressure on a QB. In the pass game Cortland Finnegan will man up with Derrick Mason and try to force Joe Flacco to find somebody else to throw the ball to.

Titans on Offense: It could read like a carbon copy of the Ravens offense. They are not going to ask Kerry Collins to carry the load here. The difference between he and Flacco is that Collins has a lot of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl Start. His best success in the pass game will come in the 10-15 yard range and especially to his tight ends. Their run game will be a polar opposite of Baltimore’s. They will use rookie Chris Johnson early and hope to catch Baltimore off guard with his explosiveness. If they can get a lead then they will use LenDale White to protect it.

Ravens on Defense: Look for Baltimore to try to exploit the absence of Pro Bowl Center Kevin Mawae by blitzing up the middle with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Both will also be key in the pass game. Lewis will often be assigned to cover Bo Scaife, the Titans leading receiver, and Reed will roam free and hope to get another playoff interception and hopefully touchdown. The Ravens are not going to give up big run plays easily either. They have been incredible against the run in recent weeks and are not likely to lose their focus in this one.

Summary: I could regret repeatedly going against the Ravens, but I’m going to do it again. These two teams match up so evenly on the field that you have to go to the sidelines to differentiate them. There stands Jeff Fisher with a home playoff game and I have to believe that’s going to be a difference maker here. This should be almost a mirror-image of their week 5 game. Not a lot of points or yards, but some big hits and lots of trash talking. Great January football.

Prediction: Titans 13, Ravens 10

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Special Teams: We didn’t see much out of Arizona’s Special Teams Unit last week, other than a very good performance from punter Ben Graham. The Cardinals struggled some in kick coverage.

Panthers Special Teams: John Kasay had another very good year, missing just 3 kicks. Punter Jason Baker was also consistently reliable. Not much happens in the return game when the Panthers play. They don’t have a great return game, but they are very good on coverage.

Cardinals on Offense: Arizona can only hope to run the ball as well as they did last week against Atlanta. The law of averages says it is unlikely. They face a much better, though not great, defense in Carolina this week. Look for Kurt Warner to put the ball up 38-45 times and find some success. Anquan Bolden’s status is still uncertain, but the Cardinals will still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston so the pass game will be fine.

Panthers on Defense: Carolina is not quite as good on defense as you might think from reputation. Julius Peppers had a resurgent season and came up with 14 sacks, but nobody else had more than six. They also don’t create a lot of turnovers. They will need to in this game. If they have success stopping the run, which they should, they have to make Warner regret airing the ball out constantly.

Panthers on Offense: There game plan will be similar to that of Atlanta last week. The difference is that Jake Delhomme is not a rookie and will not allow the Cardinals to get off the ball as quickly as they did against the Falcons.  DeAngelo Williams will have more success running the ball than Michael Turner did last week and Carolina will mix in rookie Jonathan Stewart. They had over 2,300 yards combined. Delhomme will take shots downfield for Steve Smith every chance he gets. Roddy White had 11 catches last week against Arizona, if Steve Smith does the same they are in trouble. The effect of Mushin Muhammad can not be underestimated in this game either.

Cardinals on Defense: Regardless of the snap count, the Cardinals need to hope to be as good on the line as they were last week. That opens up the opportunities for guys like Antrel Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie to make plays in the secondary. If Carolina gets desperate Delhomme tends to try to force the ball to Steve Smith, who often bails him out. The Arizona secondary needs to try to play the ball better than Smith in those situations.

Summary: Arizona has struggled going to the East Coast all year. They don’t just lose, they’re awful. Bolden being limited isn’t going to help and neither is the fact that they are playing such a well-balanced and experienced team. The two things that surprised me last week from Arizona, the run game and the defensive line, will not be as good this week and thus neither will the Cardinals.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles Special Teams: Kicker David Akers and punter Sav Rocca both had great weeks in Minnesota last week. It will tougher sailing this week in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. DeSean Jackson had a 60+ yard punt return last week and could be a difference maker in this game.

Giants Special Teams: They have the league’s oldest kicking duo in Jeff Feagles and John Karney, but both had very good years. One of the consequences of the Plax issue is that the Giants have quit using Domenik Hixon on kick returns which is a shame because he is there most explosive guy on that unit. They may want to turn to him in this must win game.

Eagles on Offense: They will need a better output from this unit this week. McNabb played okay last week, but his numbers are somewhat padded by the long screen pass near the end of the game to Westbrook. Speaking of Westbrook, he goes from the frying pan into the fire. He struggled last week against the Vikings and now must go against another top 10 rush defense. He has had success against the Giants in the past. In the passing game, McNabb needs to stretch the field more. His leading receiver last week was back-up tight end Brent Celek.

Giants on Defense: Part of the problem with the Giants lately is their sudden inability to pressure the QB. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are great pass rushers but have not had great success against Philadelphia this year. This is an underrated defensive unit, top 10 in every category, but the offense’s fall off recently has hurt the defense. They were used to playing a very short game as the Giants offense eats up a lot of clock. When the offense is off the defense falls off. One player in particular who needs to play better in January than he did in December is linebacker Antonio Pierce.

Giants on Offense: New York will obviously benefit from the return of Brandon Jacobs, the teams leading rusher. They will also give plenty of touches to Derrick Ward who also went for 1,000 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning will have to make some plays in this game as well. He has yet to find a number one that he trusts as much as Plax. Somebody has to step up in this game.

Eagles on Defense: The Eagles are no strangers to pressuring the QB. They do it well and in a variety of ways. It will be an interesting side note on this game to see whether Jim Johnson or Steve Spagnuolo is better at finding ways to catch a very familiar offense off guard. With no number one receiver to cover look for Asante Samuel to simply cut off a side of the field on Manning and hope that he forces one under pressure.

Summary: This should be a very competitive game as always. Neither team has a distinct advantage, because both know each other so well. I think the Eagles do more better right now than New York though. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, winning 4 of 5 and there is no intimidation going to the Meadowlands, because they do it every year. The Giants will be able to run the ball, though not as consistently as they’d like and big plays will be available downfield for McNabb and the Eagles.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers Special Teams: Much has been made about Mike Scifres performance against the Colts last week and for good reason. He put all six punts inside the 20. In a game like this in Pittsburgh, a good punt game is a must. On the downside, with Darren Sproles likely to carry the ball more, he probably won’t be used in the return game.

Steelers Special Teams: Jeff Reed continues to be a very good kicker, especially considering the environment he kicks in. The same can not be said for punter Mitch Berger, who has a very strong leg but put just 19 of his 66 kicks inside the twenty. The Steelers do not have  return man who makes plays, but they make up for it with a great coverage team.

Chargers on Offense: San Diego did not fare well on offense against the Steelers earlier this year. Points will not be easy to come by this time either. Philip Rivers continues to play well, in spite of the fact that his offensive line does not do a great job protecting him. That latter fact will be a problem against Dick Lebeau’s defense. San Diego will likely start Darren Sproles at RB and while he provides the potential from a big gain at any moment, it will be hard for him to carry the load against the big hitting Steelers defense. That means Michael Bennett will get plenty of looks.

Steelers on Defense: This is where they butter their bread. Nob0dy has looked good against this defense this year. They smother your running game and give you no time to throw the ball. They are the smartest defense in football as they seem to know what you’re going to do before you do it.

Steelers on Offense: Such glowing endorsements are not due this unit. I like Big Ben, but at the end of the day he had more turnovers than touchdowns and was sacked nearly three times per game. He has been very good at the end of games and that’s good enough for the Steelers, but it might not be good enough in a playoff game. The passing game is not helped by the fact that they have struggled to run the ball. Their leading rusher went for less than 800 yards and nobody averaged better than 4.2 per carry.

Chargers on Defense: This unit has played extremely well in recent weeks. They’re getting after the quarterback and making plays. They have improved quite a bit since the first meeting between these two teams, which could be scary for Roethlisberger.

Summary: As a caveat, I don’t think the Steelers are anywhere near as good as their record. They were 3-4 against playoff teams and two of those wins were over the Ravens, the second one very questionable. I think they were exposed by the Titans a couple of weeks ago and that will happen again this week.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 13

Looking Back at Wild-Card Weekend

Arizona Cardinals 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

The Arizona Cardinals won a playoff game on Saturday.

The game set up and played out as a tale of two quarterbacks. Kurt Warner was the aging veteran who went from MVP to maybe he should retire in just three short weeks. Matt Ryan was the rookie with ice in his veins who would be unfazed by the big stage and pick apart a weak Arizona defense. Those beliefs were challenged on the very first possession for the Cardinals when Kurt Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 46 yard touchdown over two Atlanta defenders. He would soon add a 71-yard touchdown to Anquan Bolden that finally had the Cardinals fans and all of their doubters believing that they could be seeing the first home playoff win in Arizona Football History.

The game did not go as planned for Matt Ryan either. Though the rookie of the year did set a record for most completions by a rookie in a playoff game, it was his mistakes which will resonate for the next 6-8 months. Ryan was sacked in the end zone for a safety and turned the ball over three times. His fumble was returned for a touchdown by Antrel Rolle early in the third quarter, with Atlanta up 17-14, and changed the complexion of the game.

It may have been a mistake that can’t be measured in numbers that cost the Falcons the most. The Arizona Cardinals were clearly able to pick up a tip as to when the ball would be snapped. The Cardinals appeared to be offsides all day, as they were that much quicker off the ball than the Falcons offense. DE Bertrand Berry said on the Jim Rome Radio Show that Matt Ryan never changed his snap count. That is a clear rookie mistake and one that stifled the Falcon offense. Atlanta had just 60 yards rushing, in large part because the Cardinals were playing on their side of the line of scrimmage all day.

Who would have thought coming into the weekend that Edgerrin James would outrush Michael Turner? Not me. James had 78 yards rushing in what is likely his last home game as a Cardinal. The league’s second leading rusher, Turner, managed just 42 yards on 18 carries.

The QB match-up is less of a surprise. Warner proved once again why he is one of the most under-appreciated talents in the history of the game, going 19-32 for 271 yards and two touchdowns. He threw one interception that bounced off a receivers hands. Ryan was far from bad, throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but his turnovers loom as a very dark cloud over his first playoff game.

With Warner and James being the stars of the offense for Arizona, one has to note that playoff experience may have been an underrated factor going into this game. It won’t be easy for Arizona to have the same success in Carolina, but nobody gave them a chance this week either so who knows?

Atlanta can take solace in knowing that they best should be yet to come. They have a good coach, their franchise QB and an entire offense that looks set for a few years. With experience and some moves on defense they should be very good for the next 5-8 years.

San Diego Chargers 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

One Title. That’s what the Colts have gotten out of this nine year stretch of double digit victories. They have produced several hall-0f-famers, set records, and given their head coach security that he could work forever. Yet, they have just one title. The window is closing. Nothing lasts forever so you better take advantage of your opportunities. Just ask the Atlanta Braves. There’s no telling when it’s going to end.

A backup running back ran 22 yards through the Colts defense and once again ended the season of Peyton Manning and the Colts premature. Three MVP’s, one trophy. Not that Peyton was the reason the Colts lost. He wasn’t. The number reason for that was Darren Sproles. He finished with 328 all-purpose yards and has risen the question, are this year’s Chargers better off without LT?

It raises a question much older than that from Colts fans. Is it fair to have an overtime system where the MVP of the league never gets the ball in his hands with the game on the line? My opinion, if not stated before, is that this overtime system is the best fit for the NFL. The Colts had their chance to stop the Chargers. Of course, the officiating did them no favors. I don’t know that any of the calls were so bad that I’ll scream conspiracy, but the pass interference call was very close. The face-mask call on the play right before the TD may have deflated the defense which would explain the ease of the 22 yard scamper.

A somewhat improbable season continues for the Chargers. Nobody expected them to start 4-8 and once they did they were thought dead for the playoffs. They won all four games they had to win to get in and on Saturday night beat a playoff team for the first time all year. They have Sproles and their defense to thank for that.

The Chargers D held Indianapolis to just 17 points and one of those touchdowns came on the kind of bush-league crap only the Colts pull where they caught the defense switching personnel and scored on a 72 yard pass play. The Chargers atoned for that mistake when they sacked Peyton Manning on 3rd and 2 with time winding down to allow them another shot at overtime.

The Chargers now head east to Pittsburgh. The Colts will go home and try to figure out how, with so much talent, this team is only 7-9 in the playoffs in the Peyton Manning Era and has just 3 wins outside of the 2006 season.

Baltimore Ravens 27

Miami Dolphins 9

Ravens defenders caught almost as many passes as their receivers on Sunday. Ed Reed had as many touchdowns as the Dolphins. A Recipe for Victory in Baltimore.

The Miami Dolphins turned the ball over just 13 times in 2008, but thanks to an awesome performance from the Ravens defense, 2009 did not go so well. Chad Pennington threw four interceptions and they lost a fumble. Baltimore’s rookie head coach and rookie QB did what the Falcons could not. They won on the road in the playoffs, it was their 10th win in 12 games and their first playoff win in five years.

Miami’s season ends and they certainly have nothing to be ashamed of. After a 1-15 season in 2007 the Dolphins went 11-5 this year and won the AFC East. This game forces many to wonder if the fact that their schedule included the AFC and NFC West played a part in that turnaround.

The Ravens played Super Bowl caliber defense and special teams, their offense needs to earn those efforts this week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Yes, Eagles Fans, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have won another playoff game. Still want them gone? Well, maybe, but not just yet. Not until they get their shot at the Super Bowl Champion Giants, a team they beat just a few weeks ago in a place where they won that game.

After being shut down for 3 1/2 quarters and held to 58 total yards, Brian Westbrook had his biggest play of the year, going 71 yards on a screen pass to score the clinching touchdown. The Eagles also got a big play from their key off-season acquisition when Asante Samuel did what he does, returning an interception 44 yards for a touchdown.

The much maligned Andy Reid is now 9-6 in the playoffs and for those keeping track that is better than Tony Dungy in the same span. Though he does lack that elusive ring. A goal which is still very much alive this season thanks to his teams victory on Sunday.

The Vikings worst fears were realized…they are still a Quarterback away. Though Tarvaris Jackson played well against Arizona and Detroit, his lack of growth was on full display against the Eagles aggressive defense. He finished just 15-35 for 164 yards. The Vikings got a good performance from Adrian Peterson and the defense played well for most of the game. All of that was negated by a terrible performance at the most important position.

Wild-Card Weekend Preview

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Announcers: Tom Hammond and Cris Collinsworth

Falcons Run Offense: 2nd in league     Cardinals Run Defense: 16th in league

Falcons Pass Offense: 14th in league     Cardinals Pass Defense: 22nd in league

Cardinals Run Offense: 32nd in league     Falcons Run Defense: 25th in league

Cardinals Pass Offense: 2nd in league     Falcons Pass Defense: 21st in league

Falcons Special Teams: Jason Elam missed just one field goal inside of 50 yards this season and was exactly the answer in the special teams that Atlanta was looking for. Jerious Norwood is their leading return man and a very good one at that.

Cardinals Special Teams: Arizona also has a very good kicker in the person of Neil Rackers. He missed just two kicks all year and one was a 68 yard attempt. Steve Breaston and JJ Arrington are a pair of good returners.

Falcons on Offense: Atlanta will hand the ball off to Michael Turner as many times as possible. Turner ran for 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns this year. He is capable of controlling the game the way only the QB can on most teams. He will be spelled by Jerious Norwood who added 500 yards on the ground and is great in the screen game. Either one can score on a home run at any point. Their success sets up play-action and Ryan’s ability to go deep to Roddy White, who had 1300 receiving yards on the season, and Michael Jenkins. For years those two men had to hear they were keeping Michael Vick from becoming an elite QB. This weekend he will watch them in the playoffs from a minimum security prison. He will also watch his replacement and the man that made Atlanta fans put him behind them in AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan. I think the MVP talk for Ryan was ridiculous, he threw just 16 TD’s this year, but he played extremely well for a rookie and appears to be immune to pressure so far. Of course he’s never played on the road in a playoff game before.

Cardinals on Defense: Arizona has been okay against the run this season, but probably not good enough to scare Atlanta out of their game plan. They also do not put great pressure on the QB. Their leading sacker had just 5 on the season. The one thing that Arizona is very good at on defense is creating turnovers. They will hope that the pressure gets to the rookie and causes him to make throws he shouldn’t attempt, opening the door for playmakers Adrian Wilson and Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Cardinals on Offense: Don’t expect them to find a run game this week. They ran for just 70 yards per game, the worst in the league. They will likely not use Edgerrin James at all and Tim Hightower averages less than 3 yards per carry. That puts the game on the shoulder of Kurt Warner. He seemed to wear down as the season went on and fell out of the MVP candidacy at some point in December. Atlanta was 21st in the league against the pass. The door should be open for big plays to Bolden, Fitzgerald and Breaston, all of whom had over 1,000 receiving yards this season.

Falcons on Defense: The Falcons can not cover those receivers. Their best shot against the pass game is to hit Kurt Warner, that falls on John Abraham who had 16.5 sacks this season. The Falcons are bad against the run, but Arizona is not good enough at running the ball to exploit that weakness.

Summary: If you have glaring weaknesses going into the playoffs, you better believe they are going to be exploited. Such is the case with Arizona and their one-dimensional offense. As good as the Cardinals pass game has been this year, I don’t think you can win a playoff game without some sort of balance. The Cards did not help their chances by limping into this game, losing 4 of their last 6. Atlanta on the other hand has gotten better as the year went on. They beat three playoff teams in the second half of the season, two on the road. Kurt Warner has great playoff experience, but could the rest of the franchise be happy just to be there? Unless Matt Ice caves under the significant pressure that comes with this game the Falcons should win it.

Pick: Falcons 30          Cardinals 27

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers

Announcers: Al Michaels and John Madden

 Colts Run Offense: 31st in League     Chargers Run Defense: 11th in League

Colts Pass Offense: 5th in League     Chargers Pass Defense: 31st in League

Chargers Run Offense: 20th in League     Colts Run Defense: 24th in League

Chargers Pass Offense: 7th in League     Colts Pass Defense: 6th in League

Colts Special Teams: Adam Vinatieri had a good season, though he had several key misses early. They do not have a return threat.

Chargers Special Teams: Nate Kaeding had an okay season, though he missed 5 of his 8 attempts between 40-49 yards. Darren Sproles is an explosive kick returner who had two kicks returned for TD’s against the Colts last season.

Colts on Offense: Peyton Manning just won his third MVP Award, after carrying a team with no run game to 12 wins. He threw for 4,000 yards despite the fact that his long time favorite target Marvin Harrison had a dramatic fall off in productivity. Manning will look to exploit the middle of the Chargers defense with Dallas Clark and set up deep routes for Reggie Wayne. The Colts also need some kind of productivity out of Joseph Addai and the run game. That will be made even tougher by the fact that 3 of the Colts 5 starters on the offensive line are out.

Chargers on Defense: The San Diego defense has played better as of late but is still full of holes. The secondary has really underperformed and the linebackers suffered from the loss of Shawne Merriman more than I think they expected. Even the d-line, with a couple of pro-bowlers struggled off and on. They will look to take advantaged of the makeshift O-Line and not allow Manning to make big plays.

Chargers on Offense: I think the Chargers are going to be successful when they have the ball, especially if LT is healthy. If they are as good at play-calling as they were last week against Denver. They had a perfect balance and kept the Broncos on their heels all day. If they have some success with LT and use Darren Sproles in the screen game, that sets up Rivers to take shots deep, which is what he does best. The wide receivers have a huge size advantage over the Indy secondary and should be able to take advantage of that. All of this plus Antonio Gates is a match-up nightmare for the Colts, because of their undersized linebackers.

Colts on Defense: The Colts have a pair of great pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, they combined for 22 sacks this season and will face a San Diego O-Line that gave up 28. They are not as strong in the middle and that could open things up for LT. They will likely move Bob Sanders up to help against the run which puts a lot of pressure on the Colts Corners. The Chargers have traditionally been a match-up problem for the Colts defense, but they did hold them to 20 points at home earlier this season.

Summary: Indianapolis beat San Diego in week 12 at Qualcomm. It was one of their nine consecutive victories coming into the playoffs. Of those nine wins though, only three came against teams with winning records and one of those was the Titans back-ups. The Chargers have won four in a row coming in, though they beat Oakland, barely beat KC (f-ing Chiefs), beat a fading Tampa Bay and crushed a Broncos team that gave up before they got there. All of that said, I do think the Chargers are playing very good football right now and are always a tough match-up for the Colts. I don’t think this game will be much different. It should be a good one.

Pick: Chargers 27         Colts 21

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Ravens Run Offense: 4th in League     Dolphins Run Defense: 10th in League

Ravens Pass Offense: 28th in League     Dolphins Pass Defense: 25th in League

Dolphins Run Offense: 11th in League     Ravens Run Defense: 3rd in League

Dolphins Pass Offense: 10th in League     Ravens Pass Defense: 2nd in League

Ravens Special Teams: Matt Stover was not nearly as automatic as he once was, missing half of his kicks over 40 yards. They do not have a great return game, Yamon Figurs is the best, but they have a good coverage team.

Dolphins Special Teams: Rookie Dan Carpenter did a nice job kicking the ball, missing four of twenty-nine on the season. Like the Ravens they don’t have a great return game, unlike Baltimore they don’t have a great coverage team, they gave up two touchdowns and one 95 yard return this season.

Ravens on Offense: One of the more overrated things of the season has been the Ravens offense. Joe Flacco has been okay, but not much better than any other Ravens QB of the past decade. He threw for less than 3,000 yards and only had two more touchdowns than picks. This was just one of those seasons where the defense was good enough that the QB is seen as better than he was. It happened with Steve McNair a couple of years ago. It will be exploited in this game. They also did not have a 1,000 yard rusher. They’ll use McClain, McGahee and Rice, but it could be tough going against the Dolphins D. When Flacco is forced to throw his favorite target is veteran Derrick Mason who had over 1,000 receiving yards.

Dolphins on Defense: The Dolphins defense had 40 sacks and 35 turnovers this season. Joey Porter had 18 of those sacks and is very familiar with the Ravens from his days in Pittsburgh. I expect Miami to use the old 8 in the box treatment against Baltimore and force Flacco to beat a secondary that came up with 18 interceptions this season.

Dolphins on Offense: Somebody on NFL.com this week wrote an article about how similar Joe Flacco and Chad Pennington were this season. That would be true except Pennington threw for 700 more yards, five more touchdowns and five less interceptions. He had a fantastic season and was exactly what the Dolphins needed. He was always better than advertised in New York and is showing it once again in Miami. His receivers, Ted Ginn and Davone Bess and Tight End Anthony Fasano are young and getting better. The backs are Pro-Bowler Ronnie Brown and Pro-Bonger Ricky Williams. They combined for 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. I don’t expect the Dolphins to use the Wild-Cat often this game as the Ravens defense is too talented and disciplined to be sucked in by it.

Ravens on Defense: Fantastic. Top five in every category and able to just dominate the game. They have once again hidden an average offense and they put points on the board. They forced 39 turnovers and turned five of them into touchdowns. They are not great at pressuring the QB, but are so good at disguising coverages that it sometimes doesn’t matter. Ed Reed will be a factor here, as he always is, and if he or anybody on this defense can score then that will give Baltimore a great shot to win.

Summary: Probably not a lot of points here, but it should be a lot of fun to watch. I spoke about weaknesses being exposed in the playoffs and I think that happens to Joe Flacco here. Joe may grow into being a very good QB, but he’s not there yet and he does not enough pieces around him yet either. Baltimore beat Miami earlier this season, but the Dolphins have won nine out of ten since then, though in fairness none of them were against playoff teams. In Baltimore’s favor though, defense travels and I think this defense is good enough to beat anybody. I just don’t think you can win in the playoffs in spite of your QB anymore.

Pick: Dolphins 17           Ravens 9

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings

Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Eagles Run Offense: 22nd in League     Vikings Run Defense: 1st in League

Eagles Pass Offense: 6th in League     Vikings Pass Defense: 18th in League

Vikings Run Offense: 5th in League     Eagles Run Defense: 4th in League

Vikings Pass Offense: 25th in League      Eagles Pass Defense: 3rd in League

Eagles Special Teams: David Akers did not have a good season, missing 7 of his 27 attempts over 30 yards. The Eagles do have their best return game in years with Quintin Demps and DeSean Jackson both scoring on returns this year. They have a decent coverage team.

Vikings Special Teams: Ryan Longwell was very good from short and long, but struggled mid-range. Unlike recent years, Minnesota did not have a very good return game and were terrible in coverage, giving up four returns for touchdowns this season.

Eagles on Offense: The Eagles are best when they have balance on their offense. Brian Westbrook is the focal point of the offense, with 1,300 total yards and 14 touchdowns. If Pat Williams is out then you could see Correll Buckhalter running between the tackles as well. Donovan McNabb will have to play well in order for the Eagles to beat the best defense against the run in the league. McNabb threw 23 touchdowns this year and was, for the most part, much better than he was given credit for. The wide receivers still aren’t great, but DeSean Jackson will be.

Vikings on Defense: Much of what the Vikings can do on defense will depend on who is on the field. Both Williams’ are injured and both could miss the game. That makes them much more susceptible to the run and could enable Philadelphia to double team sack leader Jared Allen. The Vikings are not nearly as good against the pass and their linebackers especially struggle in coverage.

Vikings on Offense: The focus will of course be NFL Leading Rusher Adrian Peterson. The Eagles are not easy to run on, but the Vikings will continue to feed him the ball all day. One problem they face, however, is that Philadelphia has forced 21 fumbles and Peterson has put the ball on the ground nine times this season, including five fumbles in the past four games. Tarvaris Jackson played very well down the stretch and was a big part of Minnesota getting into the playoffs. Brad Childress hopes he is hitting his stride at just the right time.

Eagles on Defense: Philadelphia is just as good on defense, if not better, than Minnesota. They bring pressure from everywhere and are as good a blitz team as their is in the league. They will look to take advantage of an inexperienced QB. They will have to beware of Jackson making plays with his legs and can not get frustrated if they give up a couple of big runs early to Peterson.

Summary: Sometimes you just like a match-up. What are the Vikings good at, running and stopping the run. Philadelphia doesn’t like to run the ball anyway. They have no problem throwing the ball 50 times and trying to beat you that way. They are also very good against the run. Jackson has played well, but I’m not sure he’s ready to beat a Jim Johnson defense in the playoffs yet.

Pick: Eagles 31                 Vikings 13

 

    

Raider Hater Update

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, I took the last week off for the holidays. Well that and the recent developments in Broncos Country have had me at a loss for words. I will return tomorrow to preview the weekend’s playoff games (sans Broncos) and to discuss the future of The Broncos (sans Shanahan). Happy New Year everybody and I hope you had a great Christmas, Hannukah, Ramadan or Festivus.

Former Raider Arrested…

By Garrett Barnes

Former NFL receiver and Raider idiot (like there are any smart Raiders) Andre Rison has been arrested for public intoxication in San Antonio.

Rison and a friend were reportedly causing a disturbance at the Crown Plaza Riverwalk where he was as drunk as any member of the Black Hole. 

Rison, one of many Michigan State receivers who became upstanding members of society, paid an $85 fine for the misdemeanor offense.

His 12-year career included stints with the Colts, Falcons, Browns, Jaguars, Packers, Chiefs, and Raiders. This will go into the books as just another stupid thing that a Raiders player has done. It may not be one of the worst things but it is still just something cool to know.