The Coaching Carousel

There will be 11 teams next year with new head coaches. At least. That will be the most in NFL History. Two Super Bowl Winning Coaches were Fired. Two Coaches with Rings Retired and seven other coaching positions were vacated.

 Mike Nolan was fired on October 20th by the 49ers. He had a little over 3 seasons as the Head Coach there and won less than 1/3 of his games. DC and Hall-of-Fame Linebacker Mike Singletary was given the interim job. Singletary led the 49ers to a winning record in the second half of the season. Singletary was given a four year contract after the season.

Nolan has already gotten a new job, as the defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos. I think there is actually a decent chance that he gets another shot at being the top guy for somebody if he does a good job there. He was respected for the effort he put in in the bay and he has a high-profile position now.

I think Singletary gets one year to turn the 49ers all the way around. That may not be fair, but with several Hall-of-Fame caliber coaches with ties to the 49ers being available next year Singletary might have to do something special to keep his job.

St. Louis was another team that made a change mid-season. Scott Linehan took over a team that was really not that bad and turned them into something much worse, winning just 11 games in over two years. He was replaced by Jim Haslett who went just 2-10 as interim coach, but did have the support of the team. St. Louis decided, however, to go with former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo who had been a hot candidate for a job all season long.

Linehan has signed on to be the new Offensive Coordinator in Detroit. He acquires some talent, though he certainly had that in St. Louis, and a Pro Bowl QB.

Spagnuolo takes over a team with a lot of question marks. The defensive ones are obvious and they are the ones that he will focus on first. Spagnuolo is great at creating schemes to pressure the QB and was brought in to make Chris Long worthy of his top 5 draft pick. On offense, Bulger is aging, Holt is leaving and Jackson is unhealthy. I look for Spags to push for a QB with their first pick.

The least surprising coaching dismissal of the off-season was certainly Rod Marinelli. After leading the Lions to the first 0-16 season in NFL History there was little hope of keeping his job. Marinelli was replaced by Jim Schwartz, who spent the last seven years with Tennessee and was the Defensive Coordinator of the second best defense in the league this year.

Marinelli actually gained respect throughout the league for the way he kept the Lions fighting no matter how bad things got. And they got bad. Immediately after his dismissal he became a candidate for a number of jobs in the league and settled in as the defensive line coach in Chicago.

Schwartz has perhaps the easiest job in the league this year. Win a game and you’ve improved, win 4 or 5 and you’re up for Coach of the Year. People in Detroit are hoping that Schwartz has the stroke to bring Albert Haynesworth with him. While that is unlikely his time in Tennessee suggests he should make Detroit a much more stable place to play and perhaps along with OC Scott Linehan turn around the eternally struggling Lions.

Romeo Crennell won 24 games in four seasons in Cleveland. This year was the toughest for Romeo because there were actually expectations for the Browns this year. He was replaced by another Belichek disciple in former Jets coach Eric Mangini.

Crennel is unlikely to receive another opportunity as a Head Coach. Things never really got turned around in Clevleland and this season certainly made last year’s 10-6 record look like a fluke. There was some possibility he could end up the DC in Cleveland, though the more likely scenarios are that he ends up back in New England or takes a year off and gets a DC position next year.

A somewhat surprising hiring, given that most considered his stint in New York to be a disappointment and he is viewed as a younger, whiter Romeo Crennel my many. The real question is what did the Browns see to convince them he was the right man for their job? Another question is who does Mangini make the starting QB? The office will certainly want Quinn, who will likely get the job, but the comparisons of Quinn to Pennington are undeniable and Mangini did not like Chad.

Mangini, of course, leaves the Jets. I’m not sure if he left them better or worse than when he got there. The firing seemed premature and was a little bit of a knee jerk reaction to the New York media. The new big guy in New York is a Big Guy. Rex Ryan, the former Ravens DC and son of Buddy Ryan.

Two years after being dubbed the Mangenius, Eric was Man-Gone. Obviously Mangini was tied to the Brett Favre experiment and dubbed at least partially responsible for it’s failure. Mangini landed on his feet much quicker than most.

Ryan has been a hot prospect for a Head Coach job for a couple of years after working his way up through the Ravens Defensive Coaching System. He finally gets his shot in the Big Apple. He is a cordial and likable interview which will go a long way in New York. He will have to make a decision on Brett Favre sooner than later whether he wants to admit it or not. This team was not far off, though they are aging in some key areas. He inherits a very good offensive line, a good young defense and Thomas Jones at HB, which are all positives.

After five years in New York and two years in Kansas City, Herman Edwards finally ran out of excuses. His quarterback was always hurt, his team was always young and they never signed the right Free Agents. All of that may be true, but so is his 54-74 record as a head coach. And yet, it took seven years for somebody to fire him. It may take just as long to replace him as the Chiefs can not seem to get over the fact that Mike Shanahan has no interest in coaching there right now. They have now began targeting Bill Cowher, apparently confused as to their current standing within the league. More likely options are Cardinals OC Todd Haley, Dolphins DC Paul Pasquireli and Chan Gailey.

Big Herm may well get another chance at a head coaching gig. He is a respectable guy with a lot of experience so his name is bound to come up. Personally, I’d like to see him get Gene Upshaw’s job. I think he would be a great guy to work with young players and help them understand their responsibilities to the game.

I’d go with Todd Haley. The Chiefs have some pieces in place on both sides of the ball and a good young coach is the perfect fit for them right now.

The Oakland Raiders will hire another head coach this offseason. Their sixth in a decade.  Lane Kiffin was unsurprisingly fired after going 5-15 in twenty games and replaced by Tom Cable who won 4 of 12 the rest of the way. Al Davis is now trying to find somebody to take the job. The usual suspects don’t apply here because none of them will work for Davis. It will also be hard to get a hot coordinator to take on this as their first coaching job.

Kiffin looks to go the Pete Carroll route. Though not entirely successful in the NFL he was able to use that experience to shoot himself into a high profile and highly sought after college job, as the new Head Coach of the University of Tennessee.

My pick to be the new Raider coach is Jim Fassel. He wants a job just bad enough to take this one. Al Saunders is another guy who could take this job.

Future Hall of Famer Mike Holmgren announced his intentions to step down from the position before this season and have Special Teams Coordinator Jim Mora Jr. take his post. He could not have imagined his final season would go the way it did, and it was a shame. In ten seasons Holmgren won five division titles and an NFC Title with Seattle. Mora Jr. is the former head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons.

Holmgren led two teams, Seattle and Green Bay, to the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl XXXI with the Packers. He already has a street named after him in Green Bay and could well get the same treatment in Seattle if they ever run out of dead rock stars. Holmgren will likely take a year or two off, depending on how long it takes for the job in San Francisco to open up.

Mora Jr. gets another chance at Head Coach after spending three years in Atlanta and accumulating a winning record. If Mora has matured any and can keep from saying stupid things in interviews he could be a good head coach. He takes over a team with a closing window and aging players. The draft will be very important for Seattle this year.

On January 12th Tony Dungy retired after more than three decades in the NFL as a player, assistant and head coach. He spent 13 seasons as a Head Coach, seven in Indianapolis. Dungy won more than 75% of his games coached in Indianapolis and led the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He will be replaced by Colts QB Coach Jim Caldwell.

Tony Dungy may just be the guy who can actually walk away from the game. He is already an ordained minister and would like to focus time on pastoral activities. After the suicide of his son a couple of years ago, he has put a renewed emphasis on his family life as well. I could easily see Dungy being able to stay out of the limelight, but hope that he eventually finds a way to work with the league. The NFL can always use a guy like Tony Dungy.

Jim Caldwell has no NFL Coaching or Coordinating experience. He spent eight years as the Head Coach of Wake Forest, but went just 26-63. You have to wonder if he got this job more because of his relationships with Dungy and Manning and less because of actual credentials. That said, he inherits a team managed by Peyton Manning so that side of the ball should be fine. Losing DC Ron Meeks is a big deal. Indianapolis has all of it’s cap tied up in four or five players so the defense is made up largely of guys that nobody else wants. While they’re never a top 5 defense, Meeks always made them good enough.

Jon Gruden was the most successful coach in Tampa history, winning 57 games in seven years and Super Bowl XXXVII. A collapse in which Tampa Bay lost it’s last four games and missed the playoffs cost him his job however. Tampa Bay promoted Raheem Morris to the head coaching job. Some think this was a reactionary move to keep Morris from taking a job elsewhere.

Gruden will likely get a head coaching job somewhere soon. The question is whether that will be in the NFL or College. He won’t take the Oakland job this season and does not appear to be a candidate in KC. Next year will bring more possibilities, but he will be in contention with other Super Bowl winning coaches for all of those jobs. My prediction is that in 2010, Jon Gruden is the Head Coach of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Morris was a candidate for several jobs in the off-season before being promoted by the Bucs. He was their secondary coach this year and helped them to the number one pass-defense ranking. The Bucs see him as being in the Mike Tomlin vain, and he is already popular amongst the team.

Certainly, the most surprising coaching change comes from the Mile High City, where Mike Shanahan was let go after 14 years, 146 wins and two Super Bowl rings with the Broncos. While this change came much more amicably than the one he had in Oakland it was still jarring none the less. Josh McDaniels will look to fill his very big shoes. McDaniels had been a defensive and offensive assistant for the Patriots, including being their offensive coordinator this year.

Shanahan was the greatest coach in franchise history. If he had stayed just that he may well still be there today. Mike Shanahan was not a great GM. He was downright bad at picking defensive players. D.J. Williams and Elvis Dumervil are the only ones he’s drafted in the last five years that have made any real impact. Still, the X’s and O’s of the Mastermind will be dearly missed and hard to replace. I look for Shanahan to be the Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys in 2010, if not sooner.

He’s very similar to Shanahan in some ways. He’s an offensive guy who comes to Denver from a dynasty-like team. He’s got a lot of offensive parts already in place, though who will be the running back is up for debate. He runs a much different offense than Shanny, with less bells and whistles and more straight-forward approach. On defense he and Nolan will run a 3-4, a drastic change for Denver, but one that would seem to benefit their current personnel. He will be expected to win very soon.

Raider Hater Going Forward36

Here is the State of The Nation.

This being Super Bowl week, that is what we will focus on. Here is the schedule for the week.

Tuesday: A look at all of the coaching moves made thus far in the offseason.

Wednesday: A Look at my top 50-26 of my All-Time Super Bowl Moments.

Thursday: 25-1 of my All-Time Super Bowl Moments.

Friday: A preview of Super Bowl XLIII

Saturday: Thoughts on the Hall of FAme Class of 2009.

Going forward this is the plan for the off season.

Mondays: A Breakdown of the Key Off-Season Moves of the Week.

Tuesdays: Top 50 Players at Each Position Continues with The Hater Countdown Series.

Wednesdays: A Raider Hater Editorial.

Thursdays: Draft News.

Fridays: Random Thoughts.

This will carry us through the Draft in April and we’ll figure out where to go from there. So tune in tomorrow for my look at the 11 coaching vacancies, their replacements and the two jobs still available.

Raider Hater Update

Beginning on Monday of next week, the Raider Hater Website will return on a full-time basis. Computer problems have really limited my ability to post in recent weeks. It sucks that it happened at the time of year with so much to report but life is life. I will introduce a new format on Monday, with a different theme for each day. I’m excited about the new beginning and I hope the readers enjoy it.

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Eagles Special Teams: The Eagles kicking game has been very good in the playoffs. David Akers has been perfect and punter Sav Rocca has done a masterful job in games where that was a big factor. The Eagles have not gotten a lot out of the return game and could certainly use some extra points in this game.

Cardinals Special Teams: The punt game has been good, and Neil Rackers has been okay. He has missed both attempts over 50 in the playoffs though. They have gotten nothing in their return game, particularly on punt returns. Like Philadelphia, in a game that figures to see 20+ scored by both teams, they could use great field position in this game.

Eagles on Offense: The most important thing for the offense right now is the health of Brian Westbrook. If he is not at least on the field and drawing attention, this offense becomes a lot more vanilla. The offense has struggled so far in the playoffs, with no rushing game and Donovan McNabb throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. They have gotten great play from their defense, turnovers and one big play on offense in each playoff win. They will need more consistent offense and longer drives to keep a potent Cardinal offense off the field.

Cardinals on Defense: Arizona has gotten five sacks and forced nine turnovers in their two playoff wins. They are getting great play up front and it is enabling their playmakers in the secondary to do just that. If they can pressure Donovan and take DeSean Jackson out of the game, the loss of Westbrook will be a huge deal. They have not had anybody else step up on offense this year. Look for Arizona to put five defensive backs on the field and dare Philadelphia to run the ball.

Cardinals on Offense: The Cardinals have not run the ball quite as well as you may think in the past couple of weeks, but they have at least shown a committment to the ground game. It will be significantly tougher to stick to that against the Philadelphia run defense, which is far superior to those of Atlanta and Carolina. If Kurt Warner has time and all three of his 1,000 yard receivers healthy, he should have success against even a good Philadelphia secondary. Eli missed some open receivers last week, if Warner connects on those opportunities the Cardinals could shock the world.

Eagles on Defense: This unit has carried Philadelphia this far and will have to put in their best effort to go one game further. They are not playing an inexperienced turnover prone QB this week, or even a shaky Super Bowl MVP missing his favorite target. More importantly they are playing a far superior wide receiver corps to the ones they’ve seen thus far in January. They have the cornerbacks to cover them, if they can get a pass rush. They have just one sack in the playoffs. The Eagles will take away the run game fairly easily, the key will be what they do against the best passing attack in the NFL.

Summary: Anybody want to take the under on number of times that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt reminded the Cardinals they were underdogs at the Wild-Card Eagles? The key to this game is the first quarter. If Philadelphia can establish a run game and overpower the Cardinals early it could be over. If Arizona can overcome the jitters and come out of the first quarter with a lead, the butterflies will go away and they’ll be able to just play their game. I think Kurt Warner will keep a level head in this game and actually play well against the Eagles defense. They haven’t played an offense that was really clicking in two months, when New York beat them 36-30. Since then they’ve beaten Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington, New York without Plax twice, Arizona at home, a dismantling Dallas team and the Vikings. This week they face an offense with all of their weapons and a QB who’s been here almost as often as McNabb. The same McNabb who is 1-3 in this spot and who’s only win was over Michael Vick in the freezing cold. The dome will be loud and Arizona will win a track meet.

PREDICTION: Arizona 34, Philadelphia 24

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens on Special Teams: The Ravens have been pretty good on special teams, especially considering they have an OLB returning punts. I’ll recommend again that they put Ed Reed back for punts at least a couple of times in this game.

Steelers on Special Teams: The Steelers played their best game of the season last week and that returned a kick return for a TD. Something which they hadn’t done all season. They could use another one this week.

Ravens on Offense: I believe this is the worst offense in the history of Championship Games. I know the 2000 Ravens were epic bad, but they at least had a veteran QB. The numbers from last week are mind boggling and probably speak to the fact that this unit has no business playing in this game. A QB can only not lose you the game for so long. Flacco is completing far less than half of his passes and throwing for less than 150 yards per game. I know he hasn’t turned the ball over, but how long will that be true if he plays that poorly against the league’s number one defense. Their run game has been equally bad, averaging as a team just 2.7 yards per carry and most of that is on one 48 yard run by McGahee.

Steelers on Defense: They will put eight in the box and double-team Derrick Mason, who has half of the receptions for the team this postseason. They will probably blitz a little less than often and just pray that Flacco tries to beat them. The Steelers defense gave up more than 17 points just 5 times this season and only twice in the second half of the year.

Steelers on Offense: They need to run the ball as often as they did last week, when Willie Parker had 146 yards on 27 carries. They won’t get the yards as easy this week, but Chris Johnson is similar to Parker and he was having great success against a possibly slowing down Ravens veteran defense. They also need to try to stretch the field more than Miami or Tennessee did against Baltimore. Look for them to use the pass early to set up the run.

Ravens on Defense: Playing as well as any defense I”ve seen since the same team in 2000. They’ve done almost nothing wrong in the last two weeks, despite getting no help from their defense. Saying they will have a good outing is somewhat obvious, but will it be good enough if they have their backs against a short field a couple of times this week. Can they depend on missed field goals and fumbles in the red zone for a second straight week?

Summary: I just refuse to believe that the Ravens can go to the Super Bowl with the pathetic effort they put on offense last week. They played the game to not lose instead of to win on that side of the ball and I don’t think that will work against a much more prepared for this level of game Pittsburgh team. The Ravens are still a QB away from being a Super Bowl team, but at least they have that guy on the roster now. Joe Cool just isn’t ready to win this game yet.

PREDICTION: Steelers 21, Ravens 10

Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens Special Teams: A special teams play would be huge for either of these teams. Tom Zbikowski had a nice return last week and may be there best shot at a big return, unless the Ravens are able to put Ed Reed back for punt returns which would be a great move.

Titans Special Teams: The kick game is amongst the best in the league. Rob Bironas was perfect inside of 40 this year and hit 28 field goals overall. Craig Hentrich is a Pro Bowl Punter. Chris Carr is their best returner and he’s a pretty good one. They are not great at kick coverage.

Ravens on Offense: As I said last week, Joe Flacco is not going to beat a playoff defense. He was terrible against Miami and now has to face the markedly better Titan secondary. That means that somehow the Ravens will have to find some success against the Titans rush defense. They should use Leron McClain early and set up a possible late game home run by Willis McGahee.

Titans on Defense: With Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch both healthy the Titans defense should be able to interrupt the Raven O. McClain does his best running up the middle and he’s a big powerful runner, still it’s difficult to imagine him running through Haynesworth and that big Titans line. Tennessee does not create great pressure, though eliminating the run game is often enough to create the illusion of pressure on a QB. In the pass game Cortland Finnegan will man up with Derrick Mason and try to force Joe Flacco to find somebody else to throw the ball to.

Titans on Offense: It could read like a carbon copy of the Ravens offense. They are not going to ask Kerry Collins to carry the load here. The difference between he and Flacco is that Collins has a lot of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl Start. His best success in the pass game will come in the 10-15 yard range and especially to his tight ends. Their run game will be a polar opposite of Baltimore’s. They will use rookie Chris Johnson early and hope to catch Baltimore off guard with his explosiveness. If they can get a lead then they will use LenDale White to protect it.

Ravens on Defense: Look for Baltimore to try to exploit the absence of Pro Bowl Center Kevin Mawae by blitzing up the middle with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Both will also be key in the pass game. Lewis will often be assigned to cover Bo Scaife, the Titans leading receiver, and Reed will roam free and hope to get another playoff interception and hopefully touchdown. The Ravens are not going to give up big run plays easily either. They have been incredible against the run in recent weeks and are not likely to lose their focus in this one.

Summary: I could regret repeatedly going against the Ravens, but I’m going to do it again. These two teams match up so evenly on the field that you have to go to the sidelines to differentiate them. There stands Jeff Fisher with a home playoff game and I have to believe that’s going to be a difference maker here. This should be almost a mirror-image of their week 5 game. Not a lot of points or yards, but some big hits and lots of trash talking. Great January football.

Prediction: Titans 13, Ravens 10

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Special Teams: We didn’t see much out of Arizona’s Special Teams Unit last week, other than a very good performance from punter Ben Graham. The Cardinals struggled some in kick coverage.

Panthers Special Teams: John Kasay had another very good year, missing just 3 kicks. Punter Jason Baker was also consistently reliable. Not much happens in the return game when the Panthers play. They don’t have a great return game, but they are very good on coverage.

Cardinals on Offense: Arizona can only hope to run the ball as well as they did last week against Atlanta. The law of averages says it is unlikely. They face a much better, though not great, defense in Carolina this week. Look for Kurt Warner to put the ball up 38-45 times and find some success. Anquan Bolden’s status is still uncertain, but the Cardinals will still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston so the pass game will be fine.

Panthers on Defense: Carolina is not quite as good on defense as you might think from reputation. Julius Peppers had a resurgent season and came up with 14 sacks, but nobody else had more than six. They also don’t create a lot of turnovers. They will need to in this game. If they have success stopping the run, which they should, they have to make Warner regret airing the ball out constantly.

Panthers on Offense: There game plan will be similar to that of Atlanta last week. The difference is that Jake Delhomme is not a rookie and will not allow the Cardinals to get off the ball as quickly as they did against the Falcons.  DeAngelo Williams will have more success running the ball than Michael Turner did last week and Carolina will mix in rookie Jonathan Stewart. They had over 2,300 yards combined. Delhomme will take shots downfield for Steve Smith every chance he gets. Roddy White had 11 catches last week against Arizona, if Steve Smith does the same they are in trouble. The effect of Mushin Muhammad can not be underestimated in this game either.

Cardinals on Defense: Regardless of the snap count, the Cardinals need to hope to be as good on the line as they were last week. That opens up the opportunities for guys like Antrel Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie to make plays in the secondary. If Carolina gets desperate Delhomme tends to try to force the ball to Steve Smith, who often bails him out. The Arizona secondary needs to try to play the ball better than Smith in those situations.

Summary: Arizona has struggled going to the East Coast all year. They don’t just lose, they’re awful. Bolden being limited isn’t going to help and neither is the fact that they are playing such a well-balanced and experienced team. The two things that surprised me last week from Arizona, the run game and the defensive line, will not be as good this week and thus neither will the Cardinals.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles Special Teams: Kicker David Akers and punter Sav Rocca both had great weeks in Minnesota last week. It will tougher sailing this week in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. DeSean Jackson had a 60+ yard punt return last week and could be a difference maker in this game.

Giants Special Teams: They have the league’s oldest kicking duo in Jeff Feagles and John Karney, but both had very good years. One of the consequences of the Plax issue is that the Giants have quit using Domenik Hixon on kick returns which is a shame because he is there most explosive guy on that unit. They may want to turn to him in this must win game.

Eagles on Offense: They will need a better output from this unit this week. McNabb played okay last week, but his numbers are somewhat padded by the long screen pass near the end of the game to Westbrook. Speaking of Westbrook, he goes from the frying pan into the fire. He struggled last week against the Vikings and now must go against another top 10 rush defense. He has had success against the Giants in the past. In the passing game, McNabb needs to stretch the field more. His leading receiver last week was back-up tight end Brent Celek.

Giants on Defense: Part of the problem with the Giants lately is their sudden inability to pressure the QB. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are great pass rushers but have not had great success against Philadelphia this year. This is an underrated defensive unit, top 10 in every category, but the offense’s fall off recently has hurt the defense. They were used to playing a very short game as the Giants offense eats up a lot of clock. When the offense is off the defense falls off. One player in particular who needs to play better in January than he did in December is linebacker Antonio Pierce.

Giants on Offense: New York will obviously benefit from the return of Brandon Jacobs, the teams leading rusher. They will also give plenty of touches to Derrick Ward who also went for 1,000 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning will have to make some plays in this game as well. He has yet to find a number one that he trusts as much as Plax. Somebody has to step up in this game.

Eagles on Defense: The Eagles are no strangers to pressuring the QB. They do it well and in a variety of ways. It will be an interesting side note on this game to see whether Jim Johnson or Steve Spagnuolo is better at finding ways to catch a very familiar offense off guard. With no number one receiver to cover look for Asante Samuel to simply cut off a side of the field on Manning and hope that he forces one under pressure.

Summary: This should be a very competitive game as always. Neither team has a distinct advantage, because both know each other so well. I think the Eagles do more better right now than New York though. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, winning 4 of 5 and there is no intimidation going to the Meadowlands, because they do it every year. The Giants will be able to run the ball, though not as consistently as they’d like and big plays will be available downfield for McNabb and the Eagles.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers Special Teams: Much has been made about Mike Scifres performance against the Colts last week and for good reason. He put all six punts inside the 20. In a game like this in Pittsburgh, a good punt game is a must. On the downside, with Darren Sproles likely to carry the ball more, he probably won’t be used in the return game.

Steelers Special Teams: Jeff Reed continues to be a very good kicker, especially considering the environment he kicks in. The same can not be said for punter Mitch Berger, who has a very strong leg but put just 19 of his 66 kicks inside the twenty. The Steelers do not have  return man who makes plays, but they make up for it with a great coverage team.

Chargers on Offense: San Diego did not fare well on offense against the Steelers earlier this year. Points will not be easy to come by this time either. Philip Rivers continues to play well, in spite of the fact that his offensive line does not do a great job protecting him. That latter fact will be a problem against Dick Lebeau’s defense. San Diego will likely start Darren Sproles at RB and while he provides the potential from a big gain at any moment, it will be hard for him to carry the load against the big hitting Steelers defense. That means Michael Bennett will get plenty of looks.

Steelers on Defense: This is where they butter their bread. Nob0dy has looked good against this defense this year. They smother your running game and give you no time to throw the ball. They are the smartest defense in football as they seem to know what you’re going to do before you do it.

Steelers on Offense: Such glowing endorsements are not due this unit. I like Big Ben, but at the end of the day he had more turnovers than touchdowns and was sacked nearly three times per game. He has been very good at the end of games and that’s good enough for the Steelers, but it might not be good enough in a playoff game. The passing game is not helped by the fact that they have struggled to run the ball. Their leading rusher went for less than 800 yards and nobody averaged better than 4.2 per carry.

Chargers on Defense: This unit has played extremely well in recent weeks. They’re getting after the quarterback and making plays. They have improved quite a bit since the first meeting between these two teams, which could be scary for Roethlisberger.

Summary: As a caveat, I don’t think the Steelers are anywhere near as good as their record. They were 3-4 against playoff teams and two of those wins were over the Ravens, the second one very questionable. I think they were exposed by the Titans a couple of weeks ago and that will happen again this week.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 13

Looking Back at Wild-Card Weekend

Arizona Cardinals 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

The Arizona Cardinals won a playoff game on Saturday.

The game set up and played out as a tale of two quarterbacks. Kurt Warner was the aging veteran who went from MVP to maybe he should retire in just three short weeks. Matt Ryan was the rookie with ice in his veins who would be unfazed by the big stage and pick apart a weak Arizona defense. Those beliefs were challenged on the very first possession for the Cardinals when Kurt Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 46 yard touchdown over two Atlanta defenders. He would soon add a 71-yard touchdown to Anquan Bolden that finally had the Cardinals fans and all of their doubters believing that they could be seeing the first home playoff win in Arizona Football History.

The game did not go as planned for Matt Ryan either. Though the rookie of the year did set a record for most completions by a rookie in a playoff game, it was his mistakes which will resonate for the next 6-8 months. Ryan was sacked in the end zone for a safety and turned the ball over three times. His fumble was returned for a touchdown by Antrel Rolle early in the third quarter, with Atlanta up 17-14, and changed the complexion of the game.

It may have been a mistake that can’t be measured in numbers that cost the Falcons the most. The Arizona Cardinals were clearly able to pick up a tip as to when the ball would be snapped. The Cardinals appeared to be offsides all day, as they were that much quicker off the ball than the Falcons offense. DE Bertrand Berry said on the Jim Rome Radio Show that Matt Ryan never changed his snap count. That is a clear rookie mistake and one that stifled the Falcon offense. Atlanta had just 60 yards rushing, in large part because the Cardinals were playing on their side of the line of scrimmage all day.

Who would have thought coming into the weekend that Edgerrin James would outrush Michael Turner? Not me. James had 78 yards rushing in what is likely his last home game as a Cardinal. The league’s second leading rusher, Turner, managed just 42 yards on 18 carries.

The QB match-up is less of a surprise. Warner proved once again why he is one of the most under-appreciated talents in the history of the game, going 19-32 for 271 yards and two touchdowns. He threw one interception that bounced off a receivers hands. Ryan was far from bad, throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but his turnovers loom as a very dark cloud over his first playoff game.

With Warner and James being the stars of the offense for Arizona, one has to note that playoff experience may have been an underrated factor going into this game. It won’t be easy for Arizona to have the same success in Carolina, but nobody gave them a chance this week either so who knows?

Atlanta can take solace in knowing that they best should be yet to come. They have a good coach, their franchise QB and an entire offense that looks set for a few years. With experience and some moves on defense they should be very good for the next 5-8 years.

San Diego Chargers 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

One Title. That’s what the Colts have gotten out of this nine year stretch of double digit victories. They have produced several hall-0f-famers, set records, and given their head coach security that he could work forever. Yet, they have just one title. The window is closing. Nothing lasts forever so you better take advantage of your opportunities. Just ask the Atlanta Braves. There’s no telling when it’s going to end.

A backup running back ran 22 yards through the Colts defense and once again ended the season of Peyton Manning and the Colts premature. Three MVP’s, one trophy. Not that Peyton was the reason the Colts lost. He wasn’t. The number reason for that was Darren Sproles. He finished with 328 all-purpose yards and has risen the question, are this year’s Chargers better off without LT?

It raises a question much older than that from Colts fans. Is it fair to have an overtime system where the MVP of the league never gets the ball in his hands with the game on the line? My opinion, if not stated before, is that this overtime system is the best fit for the NFL. The Colts had their chance to stop the Chargers. Of course, the officiating did them no favors. I don’t know that any of the calls were so bad that I’ll scream conspiracy, but the pass interference call was very close. The face-mask call on the play right before the TD may have deflated the defense which would explain the ease of the 22 yard scamper.

A somewhat improbable season continues for the Chargers. Nobody expected them to start 4-8 and once they did they were thought dead for the playoffs. They won all four games they had to win to get in and on Saturday night beat a playoff team for the first time all year. They have Sproles and their defense to thank for that.

The Chargers D held Indianapolis to just 17 points and one of those touchdowns came on the kind of bush-league crap only the Colts pull where they caught the defense switching personnel and scored on a 72 yard pass play. The Chargers atoned for that mistake when they sacked Peyton Manning on 3rd and 2 with time winding down to allow them another shot at overtime.

The Chargers now head east to Pittsburgh. The Colts will go home and try to figure out how, with so much talent, this team is only 7-9 in the playoffs in the Peyton Manning Era and has just 3 wins outside of the 2006 season.

Baltimore Ravens 27

Miami Dolphins 9

Ravens defenders caught almost as many passes as their receivers on Sunday. Ed Reed had as many touchdowns as the Dolphins. A Recipe for Victory in Baltimore.

The Miami Dolphins turned the ball over just 13 times in 2008, but thanks to an awesome performance from the Ravens defense, 2009 did not go so well. Chad Pennington threw four interceptions and they lost a fumble. Baltimore’s rookie head coach and rookie QB did what the Falcons could not. They won on the road in the playoffs, it was their 10th win in 12 games and their first playoff win in five years.

Miami’s season ends and they certainly have nothing to be ashamed of. After a 1-15 season in 2007 the Dolphins went 11-5 this year and won the AFC East. This game forces many to wonder if the fact that their schedule included the AFC and NFC West played a part in that turnaround.

The Ravens played Super Bowl caliber defense and special teams, their offense needs to earn those efforts this week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Yes, Eagles Fans, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have won another playoff game. Still want them gone? Well, maybe, but not just yet. Not until they get their shot at the Super Bowl Champion Giants, a team they beat just a few weeks ago in a place where they won that game.

After being shut down for 3 1/2 quarters and held to 58 total yards, Brian Westbrook had his biggest play of the year, going 71 yards on a screen pass to score the clinching touchdown. The Eagles also got a big play from their key off-season acquisition when Asante Samuel did what he does, returning an interception 44 yards for a touchdown.

The much maligned Andy Reid is now 9-6 in the playoffs and for those keeping track that is better than Tony Dungy in the same span. Though he does lack that elusive ring. A goal which is still very much alive this season thanks to his teams victory on Sunday.

The Vikings worst fears were realized…they are still a Quarterback away. Though Tarvaris Jackson played well against Arizona and Detroit, his lack of growth was on full display against the Eagles aggressive defense. He finished just 15-35 for 164 yards. The Vikings got a good performance from Adrian Peterson and the defense played well for most of the game. All of that was negated by a terrible performance at the most important position.

Top 50 Quarterbacks of the Past 25 Years: The Best

John Elway- Denver Broncos

John Elway was the number one overall pick of the Baltimore Colts in the 1983 NFL Draft. Because of the uncertainty surrounding that franchise Elway announced prior to the draft that he would not play for the Colts and would instead play for the New York Yankees, who also drafted him, if he was not traded. Baltimore did trade him to the Denver Broncos for two players and a first round pick in 1984.

Elway struggled in his ten starts in 1983, throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and accumulating a 4-6 record. Things would improve drastically in 1984 when Elway led the Broncos to a 12-2 record and a playoff berth. Elway threw 18 touchdowns that season, the most by any QB under Dan Reeves up to that point. In his first playoff game Elway threw two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Broncos fell 24-17. In 1985, the Broncos went 11-5, but missed the playoffs. Elway threw for 3,800 yards. Elway accumulated these yards not by throwing screens and slants to Roger Craig and Jerry Rice, but by throwing the ball downfield to an underwhelming group of receivers.

Elway made his first Pro-Bowl in 1986 when he threw for 3,400 yards and 19 touchdowns. He also led the Broncos back to the playoffs after another 11-5 season. After defeating the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs, Denver had to travel to Cleveland for the AFC Championship Game. This would be the first NFL Game I ever watched. It would also be the game that would take John Elway from being a hot prospect to an elite QB. With 5:02 remaining and trailing by seven, the Broncos got the ball back on their own two yard line. What would follow is still the most famous “Drive” in NFL History. Elway accounted for all 98 of the yards, with six pass completions and 5 runs. Denver tied the game with :37 remaining and won in overtime, leading to the team’s first Super Bowl appearance in nine years. Denver lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXI 39-20, though Elway did throw for 304 yards and accounted for 2 touchdowns.

Elway was the NFL MVP of a strike-shortened 1987 NFL Season. He led the Broncos to an 8-3-1 record and to a second straight Super Bowl. The Broncos were handled easily 42-10 by the heavily favored Redskins. Elway threw three interceptions in the game, though that was as much a result of him taking chances once the team trailed 35-10 as it was anything else.

After a disappointing 1988 season, Elway would return to the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl following the 1989 season. Denver was once again embarassed on the big stage, falling to the San Francisco 49ers 55-10 in the worst drubbing in Super Bowl History. Elway did not play well at all, though he did score the Broncos only touchdown.

At this point in his career Elway was amongst the most respected QB’s within the league. Outside of his peers though, Elway was the punchline of jokes. Every comedian, late-night talk show host and sitcom had a joke about futility that surrounded John Elway. Little attention was paid to the fact that as a team the Broncos had no place in the Super Bowl. Find me another team that played in three Super Bowls in four years and will end up with just 2 Hall-of-Famers. Elway took a team that would be 6-10 every year without him to three Super Bowls. Elway was asked after the third loss if he ever wanted to go to the Super Bowl again? Elways response was that he wanted to go every year, even if they kept on losing.

From 1990 to 1994 under Dan Reeves and Wade Phillips the Broncos were a fairly mediocre team. Though they made the AFC Championship Game in 1991 and lost by only 3 points to the Buffalo Bills. Elway would make three Pro-Bowls in that five year period and win the NFL MVP Award for a second time in 1993. That year he threw for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.

In 1995 Elway’s former Quarterbacks Coach Mike Shanahan was hired as the new coach of the Denver Broncos. In that first year Elway threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. In 1996 he led the Broncos to the best record in the NFL and threw 26 more touchdowns. The Broncos were upset in the playoffs by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In 1997 Elway and the Broncos would go 12-4 and make the playoffs for a second straight year. After defeating the Jaguars, Chiefs and Steelers in the playoffs the stage was set for a match-up between Elway’s Broncos and Brett Favre’s Packers. In one of the greatest Super Bowl Games ever played Elway finally led the Broncos to a Super Bowl Victory, 31-24. Though Elway spent most of the game handing off to Terrell Davis, the two defining moments of that game involve him. Elways “Helicopter Run” on 3rd and 6 in the fourth quarter that set up a game-tying touchdown. The other was of course Broncos owner Pat Bowlen saying what all Broncos Fans were thinking, “This One’s for John.”

The Broncos would start the 1998 season 13-0. After finishing with a 14-2 record the Broncos would storm through the playoffs, culminating with a second straight Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons 34-19. This time Elway carried much of the load and won the game’s MVP Honor. Elway would retire following the season.

Why number 1?

• Elway won 148 regular season games and was 14-8 in the playoffs. Of the QB’s with at least 100 wins, he has the best winning percentage.
• Elway is the only QB to start five Super Bowls. He won two of them.
• He is the sixth leading rushing QB in NFL History and the only one to throw for more than 34,000 yards. He is also one of only two players to rush for a TD in four Super Bowls.
• He holds the NFL Record with 47 career fourth quarter comebacks.
• Elway is the only member of either the 50,000 yard or 300 touchdown pass club to win multiple Super Bowls.
• Elway is the only player to throw for at least 3,000 yards and rush for at least 200 in seven straight seasons.
• He was selected to nine Pro Bowls.

Most of all, there’s no yeah, but…for Elway. His accomplishments came despite the fact that he never played with a Hall-0f-Fame Wide Receiver or Running Back. When he finally did have a running back, he won two Super Bowls. He did most of this despite the fact that he had a coach who held him back and tried to make him fit what he thought an offense should look like, instead of letting him just do what he did best. Until he would let him loose in the fourth quarter.

He has the stats, he has two rings, he’s in the Hall of Fame and he is universally respected by his peers. Though it’s not important to the countdown, he is also a brilliant businessman.

Want me to say something bad? He’s a republican.

Baltimore Ravens 9-5 @ Dallas Cowboys 9-5

Announcers: Bob Papa, Deion Sanders and Marshall Faulk a.k.a. Train Wreck

Storylines: Two teams who control their own destiny. A loss for either team would mean they would need a win and/or major help in week 17 to earn a wild-card bid. This is also the final game at Texas Stadium.

The Key to a Ravens Victory: Baltimore can’t abandon the run game. It could be tough going early against a very motivated Dallas defense, but the Ravens need to continue pounding away at them and hopefully get Willis McGahee involved late in the game to provide a possible home run threat.

The Key to a Cowboys Victory: Dallas needs to blitz Joe Flacco. He played very poorly last week against Pittsburgh, in the face of constant pressure. Baltimore can’t score a lot of points with their pedestrian run game so the key is to not let them score any through the air. If they force Flacco into another awful game, 17 points would be enough to win.

Pick: Cowboys. The emotional high of the game, a prime-time game for the final time in Texas Stadium, mixed with the experience difference in the two QB’s gives Dallas the edge. Look for the Cowboys to settle for short passes and set up a couple of deep ones later. I just haven’t seen that Flacco is able to win a “playoff caliber” game yet.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) @ Tennessee Titans (12-2)

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Storylines: This game will go a long way towards deciding not only the favorite in the AFC, but also home-field advantage.

The Key to a Steelers Victory: Pittsburgh needs to take advantage of Kerry Collins mistakes. They will do a good job against the run, which means Collins will have to throw the ball 25+ times. Pittsburgh needs to turn some of them into interceptions and give a suspect offense a short field to work with.

The Key to a Titans Victory: With Albert Haynesworth out, can they continue to dominate at the line? The Steelers don’t have a great O-line or run game, which is why they always have to win in the last couple of minutes. They are not able to sustain a flow on offense. The Titans can’t let them create one here.

Pick: Steelers. I’m not a huge Pittsburgh believer yet, but with Tennessee missing it’s best defensive player in a game that seems destined to be an under 24 total, you have to go with the Steel Curtain 2008.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-11-1) @ Cleveland Browns (4-10)

Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon

Storylines: Just the pride and the chance to beat an in-state rival. Also a loss here, and Pittsburgh next week, could land the Browns in last place in a year when many thought they could make the playoffs.

The Key to a Bengals Victory: Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to be able to get the ball downfield to T.J., while avoiding a defense that is tied for first in the league in interceptions.

The Key to a Browns Victory: The Browns need to score touchdowns, something which they haven’t done in four weeks on offense. With nothing to lose they should play as aggressively as possible and take a lot of shots at the end zone.

Pick: Is there a third team to choose from? No? Then Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers (5-9) @ St. Louis Rams (2-12)

Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan (who’d they piss off)

Storylines: The 49ers face the Rams and the Redskins the next two weeks and are winners of 3 out of the last 5. Finishing 7-9 would be good momentum going into next year. The Rams just try not to get anybody injured. They also welcome back Isaac Bruce to St. Louis.

The Key to a 49ers Victory: San Francisco needs to be much better in the red zone this week. They were very good on offense last week, until they got into scoring distance, settling for 3 field goals. They need to be better than that against a team giving up more than 4 touchdowns per game.

The Key to a Rams Victory: St. Louis needs to figure out a way to create turnovers on defense. The 49ers will give up the ball sometimes and if the Rams can give their struggling offense easier drives, they at least have a chance.

Pick: 49ers. San Fran is playing decent football lately and decent should be more than enough to beat the Rams.

San Diego Chargers (6-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)

Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

Storylines: Once more the Chargers are a loss away from elimination. A win leaves the door open for a possible playoff position. Tampa Bay has loss two in a row in their division, but still have a great shot to make the playoffs if they can win here.

The Key to a Charger Victory: Philip Rivers needs to continue to get the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd. Tomlinson is not what he once was and teams try to take Gates out of the picture. That has often times, like last week in KC, left WR’s wide open downfield. Steve Smith and Roddy White both had good games against the Bucs defense the last two weeks.

The Key to a Bucs Victory: Tampa needs to disrupt the passing motion of Philip Rivers. Like many QB’s he is at his best once he gets into a rhythm. If they make him move or hurry his passes, he will make mistakes.

Pick: Buccaneers. I think either Garcia or Griese would be able to make throws against the San Diego defense. The Chargers have played poorly on the road this year and now must travel all the way to the East Coast.

Miami Dolphins (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

Announcers: Dick Enberg and Randy Cross

Storylines: After winning one game last year, a win in Arrowhead would put Miami one week away from a match-up with the Jets, with the AFC East Title likely being on the line.

The Key to a Dolphins Victory: Miami needs to have Ronnie Brown involved in the game plan, both running the ball and receiving. He has lost carries in recent weeks to Ricky Williams, but he is their best shot at an explosive play.

The Key to a Chiefs Victory: Kansas City had just six sacks in their first twelve games. But they had three last week against San Diego. If they can put the same kind of pressure on Chad Pennington they could get the chance to blow another late lead.

Pick: Dolphins. Chad Pennington will make the playoffs this year. Herman Edwards Will Not.

New Orleans Saints (7-7) @ Detroit Lions (0-14)

Announcers: Ron Pitts and Tony Boselli

Storylines: The Lions try to avoid becoming the first 0-15 team in NFL History. They get their last best shot at a win this year against the Captains of Mediocrity, the Saints.

The Key to a Saints Victory: Pierre Thomas needs to outnumber Reggie Bush’s carries by a 2-1 margin. He is a pure running back and is their most productive out of the backfield. Get Reggie the ball in the open field, but his chances to prove he can be a 3 down back are running out.

The Key to a Lions Victory: Take your shots at Calvin Johnson. He is the lone bright spot in a hapless season. If they can get him the ball deep early, they will have an opportunity to hand the ball off to the promising rookie, Kevin Smith.

Pick: Lions. If anybody’s going to lose to Detroit, it’s the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals (8-6) @ New England Patriots (9-5)

Announcers: Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston

Storylines: The Cardinals spot is set. The Patriots could well fall out of the playoff race with a loss.

The Key to a Cardinals Victory: Kurt Warner needs to protect the football. Arizona is 0-4 on the East Coast and a big reason for that is that Warner averages 2 interceptions per game. Opportunities will be there against a less than stellar Patriots DB group, but he needs to be patient and wait for the best shots. Until they’re there, underneath stuff to Boldin and Fitz can be just as effective.

The Key to a Patriots Victory: New England ran for 277 yards against Oakland last week and Arizona’s run defense isn’t much better. That kind of output on the ground sets up Matt Cassel to be very effective. They need to run Sammy Morris early, mix in Lamont Jordan and get Kevin Faulk touches with screens an draws.

Pick: Cardinals. Call me crazy, but I think Warner and the two Pro Bowl Receivers get it done in Foxboro.

Houston Texans (7-7) @ Oakland Raiders (3-11)

Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beurlein

Storylines: The Texans look to go .500 for the second consecutive year under Gary Kubiak, and possibly better.

The Key to a Texans Victory: Get the Ball to Andre Johnson. The Raiders have a talented secondary, but have been beaten for big plays all year. Johnson is one of the most talented receivers in the game and the Texans are a much better team when the offense runs through him.

The Key to a Raiders Victory: Maybe beating the Broncos really was the Raiders Super Bowl. They haven’t played a game since then. There best chance is by finding some way to create a spark and some points. Whether that be on special teams, defense or gadget plays.

Pick: Texans. Houston is playing terrific football and though a trip to the Abyss is not easy, it should be no problem for a Mike Shanahan protege.

New York Jets (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-11)

Announcers: GUS JOHNSON! and Steve Tasker

Storylines: The Jets need to keep winning in order to win the East. That means Brett Favre needs to once again get the better of his old coach, Mike Holmgren.

The Key to a Jets Victory: The Jets need to play well on the defensive line. That unit was excelling during the Jets winning streak, but has really fell off over the past three weeks.

The Key to a Seahawks Victory: Seneca Wallace must be careful with the football. Wallace has just one pick in six games, but he has three fumbles. Stripping the ball is something the Jets excel at, see last week against Buffalo. Wallace and Seattle can not give Favre and the Jets easy points.

Pick: Seahawks. Seattle is 0-3 against East Coast teams in Qwest Field. New York is 0-3 on the West Coast. Something has to give. I have been completely underwhelmed by the Jets over the past month and think Seattle could steal this one from them.

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-6)

Announcers: Dick Stockton and Brian Baldinger

Storylines: Atlanta needs a win to stay alive. A Vikings win gives them the NFC North Title. Don’t expect Minnesota to call on Gary Anderson to attempt a game-winning field goal.

The Key to a Falcons Victory: Atlanta needs to be able to take advantage of the missing Pat Williams. Minnesota will still be very capable against the run, but Atlanta needs to continue to pound with Michael Turner if they are going to have a chance to win.

The Key to a Vikings Victory: They need to exploit the mobility of Tarvaris Jackson. They need to find John Abraham before the snap and roll away from him with keepers and bootlegs.

Pick: Vikings. I think Minnesota has it figured out right now and will be able to get the job done at home against what should be a very game Atlanta Team. As long as Peterson outruns Turner, they should win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1) @ Washington Redskins (7-7)

Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Storylines: An elimination game in the NFC East.

The Key to an Eagles Victory: If Donovan McNabb can avoid the mistakes he made last week, the Eagles will have an excellent chance.

The Key to a Redskins Victory: The Redskins need to show something different. They are vanilla on offense and predictable. If they could come out with a no-huddle or a spread offense, they might catch the Eagles.

Pick: Redskins. I do realize it seems kind of out there given the different directions these two teams have gone in, but I think Campbell and the Skins have a good feel for what to expect from Philadelphia and will have answers for it.

Buffalo Bills (7-7) @ Denver Broncos (8-6)

Announcers: Ian Eagle and Solomon Wilcots

Storyline: If the Broncos win, they’re in.

The Key to a Bills Victory: Buffalo needs to feed the ball to Marshawn Lynch and hope their defense is successful against the Broncos. If Lynch has less than 20 carries in this game, it will be a Bronco Blowout.

The Key to a Broncos Victory: Keep Jay Cutler Standing. Jay should have success against the Bills defense, as long as he’s not sacked three times, as he was last week.

Pick: Broncos. If they don’t win this game, they have no right to be in the playoffs. No matter what the Chargers do.

Carolina Panthers (11-3) @ New York Giants (11-3)

Announcers: Al Michaels and John Madden

Storyline: Winner gets home-field advantage throught the NFC playoffs.

The Key to a Panthers Victory: Carolina needs to balance their offense, running the ball enough that the Giants can’t pin their ears back, but taking enough shots downfield to give Steve Smith an opportunity to dominate.

The Key to a Giants Victory: The Giants need to ride the arm of Eli Manning. There is always debate about how good Eli really is. This is the kind of game where he needs to prove he’s elite.

Pick: Panthers. I think they’re the best team in football right now and their style is built to travel.

Green Bay Packers (5-9) @ Chicago Bears (8-6)

Announcers: Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski

Storyline: The oldest rivalry in football. A Viking win on Sunday would render this game meaningless. If they lose though, the Bears would need to win to stay alive.

The Key to a Packers Victory: Green Bay needs to play a west coast style of offense and get the ball into their wide receivers hands as quick as possible.

The Key to a Bears Victory: Chicago needs to score early and force Green Bay to become desperate.

Pick: Bears. I never pick a sweep in this series.

Week 15 Preview

Don’t you love December football?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-5)

Announcers: Dick Stockton and Brian Baldinger

Storylines: Two teams in the ultra-competitive NFC South look to bounce back from divisional losses and solidify some playoff standing.

The Bucs Should Win If: Monday was a fluke instead of a sign of the times. Tampa has to play exponentially better against the run than they did on Monday. They can not let Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood repeat the Panthers success against them, especially in what will be a rowdy Georgia Dome.

The Falcons Should Win If: Roddy White is able to capitalize on a Tampa defense that may attempt to overcompensate against the run. The Buc defense will not be embarrassed twice in a row. So Atlanta will need some big plays to pull out the win.

Pick: Falcons. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense are improving by the week. Tampa Bay on the other hand seemed to be showing signs of slowing down last week.

Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-11-1)

Announcers: Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston

Storylines: The ‘Skins hope to take advantage of the first break in their schedule in quite some time to maintain some level of relevence. It is a must win game for them.

 The Redskins Should Win If: Two guys with ties to Miami get their game going. Former Hurricane Clinton Portis needs to be the center of attention on Sunday to take some of the pressure of a struggling Jason Campbell. Former Dolphin Jason Taylor needs to give Daniel Snyder some return on his investment and start playing up to his Hall-of-Fame credentials.

The Bengals Should Win If: T.J. Houshmanzadeh gets double digit catches. The Bengals can not beat the Redskins by playing conservatively. They will have to take shots downfield at their best playmaker.

Pick: Redskins. Nobody in the league needs a win any more than the Redskins this week. Not only to maintain playoff possibilities, but for the confidence of Jim Zorn and to make Clinton Portis happy for a week.

Tennessee Titans (12-1) @ Houston Texans (6-7)

Announcers: GUS JOHNSON!!! and Steve Tasker

Storylines: The Titans can lock up home-field advantage with a win over a team that they have traditionally dominated. It may not be as easy as it looks though.

The Titans Should Win If: Chris Johnson outrushes Steve Slaton. The Titans have struggled only when they are unable to be explosive on the ground. Chris Johnson should have plenty of opportunities this week, he can’t let this be a game where he doesn’t show up.

The Texans Should Win If: Matt Schaub is able to pick apart the 3rd ranked pass-defense in the league. It isn’t an easy task, but Schaub has played well over the past month and if Houston has any run game it will make his job a lot easier.

Pick: Texans. Yeah, going for the upset here. Houston is eliminated from the playoffs, which makes this their Super Bowl. They have played well which guarantees a great crowd and we know divisional games are where anything can happen.

Green Bay Packers (5-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

Announcers: Ron Pitts and Tony Boselli

Storylines: Arguably the two most disappointing teams in the league. Green Bay still has a glimmer of playoff hope, that disappears with a loss here. The Jaguars hope to finish strong and maintain some sense of dignity.

The Packers Should Win If: Aaron Rodgers throws three touchdowns. The Packers best hope appears to be that this somehow becomes a shoot-out. They have a terrible run defense and have struggled to move the ball themselves for much of the season.

The Jaguars Should Win If: They can avoid falling two scores behind. Jacksonville can’t overcome adversity with their offense. They need to be able to run the ball and not put the game on David Garrard’s shoulders. Especially with his best receiver, Matt Jones, finally being suspended.

Pick: Jaguars. Look for MJD to have a big game here and put the Pack out of their misery.

San Francisco 49ers (5-8) @ Miami Dolphins (8-5)

Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan

Storylines: The Dolphins have been hot and can get one step closer to one of the best turnarounds in league history by knocking off the 49ers at home. The 49ers have played well in the past couple of weeks and look to add another big road victory to Mike Singletary’s resume.

The 49ers Should Win If: They keep Shaun Hill’s Jersey Clean. Hill has been very good since replacing JTO as starting QB. If given time he can make some plays against the Dolphins secondary.

The Dolphins Should Win If: Chad Pennington outplays Hill. Chad has quietly had his best season this year and if he can continue to complete 66% of his passes and avoid turnovers we may be watching the Dolphins play in January.

Pick: 49ers. Miami has been walking a tight rope for the past few weeks, eeking out victories over teams they’re supposed to be much better than. San Francisco is playing just well enough at this point to make the Dolphins regret a poor performance.

Seattle Seahawks (2-11) @ St. Louis Rams (2-11)

Announcers: Matt Vasgersian and JC Pearson

Storlines: Ummm….

The Seahawks Should Win If: Seneca Wallace and the Seattle Offense gets into a rhythm. They were there for 3 quarters last week and once they fell apart in the fourth, they were done.

The Rams Should Win If: Marc Bulger takes advantage of the worst pass defense in the league and actually, you know, connects on some plays downfield.

Pick: Rams. They’re at home.

Buffalo Bills (6-7) @ New York Jets (8-5)

Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

Storylines: Both teams have hurt their chances with their recent slides, the Bills worse than the Jets. Both teams should play this one as an elimination game.

The Bills Should Win If: Somehow they’re able to get the ball deep to Lee Evans. The Jets have given up nearly 300 yards passing per game over the past month. The Bills will have to stretch the field, not just accept the underneath stuff and settle for a field goal on the scoreboard.

The Jets Should Win If: Brett Favre plays like he was prior to the Denver game. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in two weeks and the offense has become anemic. They may not need many big plays to win the game, but they will to get back into a flow headed towards the playoffs.

Pick: Jets. Aside from the loss to Denver, the Jets defense has played well in the past two months. I don’t think the Bills offense will be able to score enough points to beat a Brett Favre who is backed into a corner.

San Diego Chargers (5-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-10)

Announcers: Ian Eagle and Solomon Wilcots

Storylines: You know the refrain by now. A Chargers loss means they’re done, a win may keep their slim hopes alive. Just ask the Talking Heads, they’ll tell you all the reasons the Chargers are still the favorites to win the West.

The Chargers Should Win If: LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for 100 yards. I know they’ve won games without LT coming up big, but not many of them. He only had 78 yards in their win earlier this season over KC, but many argue that was a game they were lucky to win.

The Chiefs Should Win If: Tyler Thigpen is able to make throws to Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzales. The Chargers are susceptible in the pass game and KC has had success when these two guys are focus points of the offense.

Pick: Chargers. I really want to go the other way and a Chief win wouldn’t shock me, because I actually don’t think the Chargers are much better than them right now. San Diego played motivated last week and had 10 days to get ready for the Chiefs.

Detroit Lions (0-13) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick

Storylines: The Colts look to hold off their wild-card competition. The Lions are still looking for that elusive win.

The Lions Should Win If: {crickets}… alright, if the Lions QB can avoid turnovers and Kevin Smith is able to dominate the game, they have a puncher’s chance.

The Colts Should Win If: Hell is Hot. It will be even easier if their talented defensive ends are able to force Orlovsky or Stanton into 3 or 4 interceptions.

Pick: Colts. The Colt defense has been playing really well recently. The offense is still off a step, but that shouldn’t matter much in this game. They are also way too smart to overlook anybody.

Minnesota Vikings (8-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-5)

Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Storylines: The only meeting of the week between two division leaders. The Cardinals spot is secure, the same can not be said for the Vikings thanks to Chicago’s win on Thursday.

The Vikings Should Win If: They are able to hit Kurt Warner early. With little hope of getting a first-round bye, the Cardinals have little to play for. Fear of losing their franchise QB could turn them conservative in a hurry.

The Cardinals Should Win If: They are able to force Tarvaris Jackson to attempt more passes than Kurt Warner.

Pick: Vikings. Adrian Peterson should have a good game against the Cardinals defense and be able to protect the young QB. I know the Cards will play hard, I just think teams have a tendency to play too vanilla when they know they have more important games down the line.

New England Patriots (8-5) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10)

Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon

Storylines: The Patriots have been on the West Coast all weekend to avoid having to make the trip on consecutive weeks. They didn’t play all that well in Seattle last week, so we’ll see how this strategy works out. They would not make the playoffs as of now, a loss obviously can only hurt their chances.

The Patriots Should Win If: Their potpourri of linebackers plays well. They have young guys (Jerod Mayo and Pierre Woods) and not so young (Mike Vrabel and Junior Seau) starting. They looked confused last week and hope to have worked out all the kinks during the week.

The Raiders Should Win If: Zach Miller has a big day. He is the player most apt to take advantage of the previously mentioned linebacker problems. John Carlson had a nice week for Seattle in their near win, the Raiders should target him no less than 10 times.

Pick: Patriots. There are obvious traps here, but with Oakland running such a generic offense, the Patriots defense should actually find it fairly easy to adapt to.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Storylines: The two best defenses in football, for first place in the AFC North. A loss could take the Ravens out of the current playoff picture.

The Steelers Should Win If: They are able to get to Joe Flacco. This will be the biggest game of his career and he is playing the best pass-rushing linebackers in the league in Harrison and Woodley. He will need to accept the occasional sack and not make a poor decision.

The Ravens Should Win If: Ed Reed is the safety making plays instead of Troy Polomalu. The Ravens are certainly scoring more than they have in recent weeks, but that has as much to do with their defense as offense. They will have to find ways to give Flacco and maybe Matt Stover, as short of fields as possible.

Pick: Ravens. The biggest game in Baltimore in years and a team that defensively, feeds off that fire better than any.  I think they will force more mistakes and win a very good game.

Denver Broncos (8-5) @ Carolina Panthers (10-3)

Announcers: Dick Enberg and Randy Cross

Storylines: The Panthers can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help. They can at least create some real seperation with the Saints already losing and the Bucs and Falcons playing each other. The Broncos clinch the AFC West with a win and if the Ravens beat the Steelers, the Broncos join the conversation for a bye.

The Panthers Should Win If: They are able to do what everybody thinks they will do. Run for 200 yards on one of the worst defenses in the league.

The Broncos Should Win If: The Panthers don’t turn all of those yards into touchdowns. Jay Cutler has been playing very well and will put up points on any defense. The Panthers can’t just outgain the Broncos, they have to outscore them.

Pick: Broncos. They have been very good on the road this year and the Panthers are just the kind of team to have a letdown after a great week. We saw on Monday that their are shots to be had downfield against Carolina and Cutler and Marshall, Royal are more equipped to exploit it than even Garcia and Bryant were.

NewYork Giants (11-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

Announcers: Al Michaels and John Madden

Storylines: A bunch of off-field crap and what should be a great game with playoff implications for both teams.

The Cowboys Should Win If: They are able to get at Manning consistently. The Passing game was off last week and one of the keys for Dallas is to keep them out of rhythm. Especially since Brandon Jacobs isn’t playing, the Giants will be much easier to make one-dimensional.

The Giants Should Win If: Their receivers step up and play much better than last week. They can’t drop balls and run poor routes. They play a much softer secondary this week and they all, especially Hixon, need to take advantage of that.

Pick: Cowboys. I think Jacobs not playing is huge. They don’t have the power back in short yardage situations that they need which could result in a much less relaxed offensive unit.

Cleveland Browns (4-9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-6-1)

Announcers: Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski

The Browns Should Win If: They are able to find ways to get the ball in Josh Cribbs hands. He is the player most capable of an explosive play right now on the Browns roster.

The Eagles Should Win If: They stick to last week’s game plan and get the ball into Brian Westbrook’s hands 30 times.

Pick: Eagles. I don’t know if Andy Reid can keep running the ball, but it might not matter against the Browns.

Top 50 Quarterbacks of the Past 25 Years: Number 2

Brett Favre- Green Bay Packers and New York Jets

Brett Favre was drafted in the second round of the 1991 Draft by the Atlanta Falcons. Coach Jerry Glanville was not in favor of the pick and said he would never start Brett Favre, unless a plane crash took out the rest of his QB’s. Prior to the 1992 season Favre was traded to the Green Bay Packers for a first-round pick. He threw just 4 passes as a Falcon and half of them were intercepted.

Favre replaced an injured Don Majikowski during the third game of the 1992 season and used as a template for what we would get from him for the next 15 years. Although he fumbled four times and threw some terrible passes, he led the game winning drive at the end and looked spectacular in doing so. He would start the next week and every week for the next 16 years and counting. Favre would make the Pro Bowl in 1992, throwing 18 touchdowns in 13 starts. In ’93 and ’94 Favre would lead the Packers to the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since Vince Lombardi was the Head Coach. He made the Pro Bowl in ’93 despite throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Surprisingly though he missed it in ’94 when he threw 33 touchdowns to just 14 picks. So I guess it evened out.

In 1995 Favre led the Packers to their best season in three decades. He led the league with 4,413 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. He had a career high 99.5 QB Rating. Favre beat Steve Young and the 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs before losing to the Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game. Brett Favre was named MVP of the NFL that year. He was named MVP again in 1996. Favre threw for 3,800 yards and 39 touchdowns and led Green Bay to their first Super Bowl in 29 years. In Super Bowl XXXI, against the New England Patriots, Favre threw for 245 yards and two touchdowns in a victorious effort. Favre led the Packers back to the Super Bowl in 1997, again leading the league with 35 touchdowns. Favre threw for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns in Super Bowl XXXII, but fell to John Elway and the Denver Broncos, in arguably the best QB match-up in Super Bowl History.

Favre and the Packers would continue to be successful over the next few years. They did not have a losing season in Favre’s first 13 as their starter. In those seasons though Brett went just 3-5 in the playoffs and led the league in touchdown passes just once, in 2003. Brett would continue to have great statistics, mostly due to the fact that he never missed a game. The team however never accomplished as much as was thought they would.

In the 3 year period between 2003 and 2005 Brett Favre lost his father to cancer, his brother in law was killed in an ATV accident, his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer and his family’s home was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina. Still Favre played on. It did seem to weigh on him as he threw 29 interceptions in 2005 and in 2006 threw 18 touchdowns and 18 picks.

In 2007 Brett had a resurgent season. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in leading the Packers back to the NFC Championship Game. He threw an interception in overtime of that game that eventually led to a game-winning kick for the Giants. Many believed that was how his career would end. However, in the off-season after much drama, Favre was traded to the New York Jets. 12 games into his Jet career Brett has had a clear impact. He has better than doubled their win total from last year.

Brett Favre is number 2 on this list because it is absolutely impossible to ignore his personal achievements. Brett is the only 3 time MVP. He is a nine time Pro-Bowler and a 7 time All-Pro. Brett has the most wins by a QB, the most career passing yards and the most career touchdowns. He is the greatest statistical QB in the History of the Game. And unlike Marino, who held that honor before him, Brett has a ring.

Why not Number 1? All of those records are due to the one record of longest consecutive start streak. That’s not a bad thing. I’m just saying that maybe if some of the other guys with big numbers, like Marino and Elway, had been able to avoid injury over the years they would have the numbers. Marino would certainly have every record if he had played in the 27 more games that Favre had when he broke the records in 2007. Elway played in 35 less games than Favre, mostly because he played one less season. Favre’s total wins are certainly impressive, however his winning percentage are below that of Elway, Young and Aikman. Then there is his playoff career, especially post-Holmgren.

Favre is 12-10 in his career in the playoffs, but just 3-5 since Holmgren left. Favre had only one 300 yard passing game in the playoffs in the decade since Holmgren went to Seattle. He had a six interception performance against St. Louis, a 4 pick day against the Vikings and lost to Michael Vick in the Snow in Lambeau. 

These are the Favre negatives. There are also the interceptions and poor decision making. But, the positives far outweigh them. He is a proven winner for a decade and a half and holds every major passing mark. To not have him in the top two would be ridiculous. Many would even say number one. How can you beat his numbers?

By being the only guy in the 300 TD Club with multiple Super Bowl Rings. Being the only guy in the 50,000 yard club with multiple Super Bowl Rings.

Being the Only Guy to Start 5 Super Bowls At QB. Being the template for what an NFL Quarterback is Supposed To be. Being…