Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens Special Teams: A special teams play would be huge for either of these teams. Tom Zbikowski had a nice return last week and may be there best shot at a big return, unless the Ravens are able to put Ed Reed back for punt returns which would be a great move.

Titans Special Teams: The kick game is amongst the best in the league. Rob Bironas was perfect inside of 40 this year and hit 28 field goals overall. Craig Hentrich is a Pro Bowl Punter. Chris Carr is their best returner and he’s a pretty good one. They are not great at kick coverage.

Ravens on Offense: As I said last week, Joe Flacco is not going to beat a playoff defense. He was terrible against Miami and now has to face the markedly better Titan secondary. That means that somehow the Ravens will have to find some success against the Titans rush defense. They should use Leron McClain early and set up a possible late game home run by Willis McGahee.

Titans on Defense: With Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch both healthy the Titans defense should be able to interrupt the Raven O. McClain does his best running up the middle and he’s a big powerful runner, still it’s difficult to imagine him running through Haynesworth and that big Titans line. Tennessee does not create great pressure, though eliminating the run game is often enough to create the illusion of pressure on a QB. In the pass game Cortland Finnegan will man up with Derrick Mason and try to force Joe Flacco to find somebody else to throw the ball to.

Titans on Offense: It could read like a carbon copy of the Ravens offense. They are not going to ask Kerry Collins to carry the load here. The difference between he and Flacco is that Collins has a lot of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl Start. His best success in the pass game will come in the 10-15 yard range and especially to his tight ends. Their run game will be a polar opposite of Baltimore’s. They will use rookie Chris Johnson early and hope to catch Baltimore off guard with his explosiveness. If they can get a lead then they will use LenDale White to protect it.

Ravens on Defense: Look for Baltimore to try to exploit the absence of Pro Bowl Center Kevin Mawae by blitzing up the middle with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Both will also be key in the pass game. Lewis will often be assigned to cover Bo Scaife, the Titans leading receiver, and Reed will roam free and hope to get another playoff interception and hopefully touchdown. The Ravens are not going to give up big run plays easily either. They have been incredible against the run in recent weeks and are not likely to lose their focus in this one.

Summary: I could regret repeatedly going against the Ravens, but I’m going to do it again. These two teams match up so evenly on the field that you have to go to the sidelines to differentiate them. There stands Jeff Fisher with a home playoff game and I have to believe that’s going to be a difference maker here. This should be almost a mirror-image of their week 5 game. Not a lot of points or yards, but some big hits and lots of trash talking. Great January football.

Prediction: Titans 13, Ravens 10

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Cardinals Special Teams: We didn’t see much out of Arizona’s Special Teams Unit last week, other than a very good performance from punter Ben Graham. The Cardinals struggled some in kick coverage.

Panthers Special Teams: John Kasay had another very good year, missing just 3 kicks. Punter Jason Baker was also consistently reliable. Not much happens in the return game when the Panthers play. They don’t have a great return game, but they are very good on coverage.

Cardinals on Offense: Arizona can only hope to run the ball as well as they did last week against Atlanta. The law of averages says it is unlikely. They face a much better, though not great, defense in Carolina this week. Look for Kurt Warner to put the ball up 38-45 times and find some success. Anquan Bolden’s status is still uncertain, but the Cardinals will still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston so the pass game will be fine.

Panthers on Defense: Carolina is not quite as good on defense as you might think from reputation. Julius Peppers had a resurgent season and came up with 14 sacks, but nobody else had more than six. They also don’t create a lot of turnovers. They will need to in this game. If they have success stopping the run, which they should, they have to make Warner regret airing the ball out constantly.

Panthers on Offense: There game plan will be similar to that of Atlanta last week. The difference is that Jake Delhomme is not a rookie and will not allow the Cardinals to get off the ball as quickly as they did against the Falcons.  DeAngelo Williams will have more success running the ball than Michael Turner did last week and Carolina will mix in rookie Jonathan Stewart. They had over 2,300 yards combined. Delhomme will take shots downfield for Steve Smith every chance he gets. Roddy White had 11 catches last week against Arizona, if Steve Smith does the same they are in trouble. The effect of Mushin Muhammad can not be underestimated in this game either.

Cardinals on Defense: Regardless of the snap count, the Cardinals need to hope to be as good on the line as they were last week. That opens up the opportunities for guys like Antrel Rolle and Rodgers-Cromartie to make plays in the secondary. If Carolina gets desperate Delhomme tends to try to force the ball to Steve Smith, who often bails him out. The Arizona secondary needs to try to play the ball better than Smith in those situations.

Summary: Arizona has struggled going to the East Coast all year. They don’t just lose, they’re awful. Bolden being limited isn’t going to help and neither is the fact that they are playing such a well-balanced and experienced team. The two things that surprised me last week from Arizona, the run game and the defensive line, will not be as good this week and thus neither will the Cardinals.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Eagles Special Teams: Kicker David Akers and punter Sav Rocca both had great weeks in Minnesota last week. It will tougher sailing this week in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. DeSean Jackson had a 60+ yard punt return last week and could be a difference maker in this game.

Giants Special Teams: They have the league’s oldest kicking duo in Jeff Feagles and John Karney, but both had very good years. One of the consequences of the Plax issue is that the Giants have quit using Domenik Hixon on kick returns which is a shame because he is there most explosive guy on that unit. They may want to turn to him in this must win game.

Eagles on Offense: They will need a better output from this unit this week. McNabb played okay last week, but his numbers are somewhat padded by the long screen pass near the end of the game to Westbrook. Speaking of Westbrook, he goes from the frying pan into the fire. He struggled last week against the Vikings and now must go against another top 10 rush defense. He has had success against the Giants in the past. In the passing game, McNabb needs to stretch the field more. His leading receiver last week was back-up tight end Brent Celek.

Giants on Defense: Part of the problem with the Giants lately is their sudden inability to pressure the QB. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are great pass rushers but have not had great success against Philadelphia this year. This is an underrated defensive unit, top 10 in every category, but the offense’s fall off recently has hurt the defense. They were used to playing a very short game as the Giants offense eats up a lot of clock. When the offense is off the defense falls off. One player in particular who needs to play better in January than he did in December is linebacker Antonio Pierce.

Giants on Offense: New York will obviously benefit from the return of Brandon Jacobs, the teams leading rusher. They will also give plenty of touches to Derrick Ward who also went for 1,000 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Eli Manning will have to make some plays in this game as well. He has yet to find a number one that he trusts as much as Plax. Somebody has to step up in this game.

Eagles on Defense: The Eagles are no strangers to pressuring the QB. They do it well and in a variety of ways. It will be an interesting side note on this game to see whether Jim Johnson or Steve Spagnuolo is better at finding ways to catch a very familiar offense off guard. With no number one receiver to cover look for Asante Samuel to simply cut off a side of the field on Manning and hope that he forces one under pressure.

Summary: This should be a very competitive game as always. Neither team has a distinct advantage, because both know each other so well. I think the Eagles do more better right now than New York though. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, winning 4 of 5 and there is no intimidation going to the Meadowlands, because they do it every year. The Giants will be able to run the ball, though not as consistently as they’d like and big plays will be available downfield for McNabb and the Eagles.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers Special Teams: Much has been made about Mike Scifres performance against the Colts last week and for good reason. He put all six punts inside the 20. In a game like this in Pittsburgh, a good punt game is a must. On the downside, with Darren Sproles likely to carry the ball more, he probably won’t be used in the return game.

Steelers Special Teams: Jeff Reed continues to be a very good kicker, especially considering the environment he kicks in. The same can not be said for punter Mitch Berger, who has a very strong leg but put just 19 of his 66 kicks inside the twenty. The Steelers do not have  return man who makes plays, but they make up for it with a great coverage team.

Chargers on Offense: San Diego did not fare well on offense against the Steelers earlier this year. Points will not be easy to come by this time either. Philip Rivers continues to play well, in spite of the fact that his offensive line does not do a great job protecting him. That latter fact will be a problem against Dick Lebeau’s defense. San Diego will likely start Darren Sproles at RB and while he provides the potential from a big gain at any moment, it will be hard for him to carry the load against the big hitting Steelers defense. That means Michael Bennett will get plenty of looks.

Steelers on Defense: This is where they butter their bread. Nob0dy has looked good against this defense this year. They smother your running game and give you no time to throw the ball. They are the smartest defense in football as they seem to know what you’re going to do before you do it.

Steelers on Offense: Such glowing endorsements are not due this unit. I like Big Ben, but at the end of the day he had more turnovers than touchdowns and was sacked nearly three times per game. He has been very good at the end of games and that’s good enough for the Steelers, but it might not be good enough in a playoff game. The passing game is not helped by the fact that they have struggled to run the ball. Their leading rusher went for less than 800 yards and nobody averaged better than 4.2 per carry.

Chargers on Defense: This unit has played extremely well in recent weeks. They’re getting after the quarterback and making plays. They have improved quite a bit since the first meeting between these two teams, which could be scary for Roethlisberger.

Summary: As a caveat, I don’t think the Steelers are anywhere near as good as their record. They were 3-4 against playoff teams and two of those wins were over the Ravens, the second one very questionable. I think they were exposed by the Titans a couple of weeks ago and that will happen again this week.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 13

Looking Back at Wild-Card Weekend

Arizona Cardinals 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

The Arizona Cardinals won a playoff game on Saturday.

The game set up and played out as a tale of two quarterbacks. Kurt Warner was the aging veteran who went from MVP to maybe he should retire in just three short weeks. Matt Ryan was the rookie with ice in his veins who would be unfazed by the big stage and pick apart a weak Arizona defense. Those beliefs were challenged on the very first possession for the Cardinals when Kurt Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 46 yard touchdown over two Atlanta defenders. He would soon add a 71-yard touchdown to Anquan Bolden that finally had the Cardinals fans and all of their doubters believing that they could be seeing the first home playoff win in Arizona Football History.

The game did not go as planned for Matt Ryan either. Though the rookie of the year did set a record for most completions by a rookie in a playoff game, it was his mistakes which will resonate for the next 6-8 months. Ryan was sacked in the end zone for a safety and turned the ball over three times. His fumble was returned for a touchdown by Antrel Rolle early in the third quarter, with Atlanta up 17-14, and changed the complexion of the game.

It may have been a mistake that can’t be measured in numbers that cost the Falcons the most. The Arizona Cardinals were clearly able to pick up a tip as to when the ball would be snapped. The Cardinals appeared to be offsides all day, as they were that much quicker off the ball than the Falcons offense. DE Bertrand Berry said on the Jim Rome Radio Show that Matt Ryan never changed his snap count. That is a clear rookie mistake and one that stifled the Falcon offense. Atlanta had just 60 yards rushing, in large part because the Cardinals were playing on their side of the line of scrimmage all day.

Who would have thought coming into the weekend that Edgerrin James would outrush Michael Turner? Not me. James had 78 yards rushing in what is likely his last home game as a Cardinal. The league’s second leading rusher, Turner, managed just 42 yards on 18 carries.

The QB match-up is less of a surprise. Warner proved once again why he is one of the most under-appreciated talents in the history of the game, going 19-32 for 271 yards and two touchdowns. He threw one interception that bounced off a receivers hands. Ryan was far from bad, throwing for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but his turnovers loom as a very dark cloud over his first playoff game.

With Warner and James being the stars of the offense for Arizona, one has to note that playoff experience may have been an underrated factor going into this game. It won’t be easy for Arizona to have the same success in Carolina, but nobody gave them a chance this week either so who knows?

Atlanta can take solace in knowing that they best should be yet to come. They have a good coach, their franchise QB and an entire offense that looks set for a few years. With experience and some moves on defense they should be very good for the next 5-8 years.

San Diego Chargers 23

Indianapolis Colts 17

One Title. That’s what the Colts have gotten out of this nine year stretch of double digit victories. They have produced several hall-0f-famers, set records, and given their head coach security that he could work forever. Yet, they have just one title. The window is closing. Nothing lasts forever so you better take advantage of your opportunities. Just ask the Atlanta Braves. There’s no telling when it’s going to end.

A backup running back ran 22 yards through the Colts defense and once again ended the season of Peyton Manning and the Colts premature. Three MVP’s, one trophy. Not that Peyton was the reason the Colts lost. He wasn’t. The number reason for that was Darren Sproles. He finished with 328 all-purpose yards and has risen the question, are this year’s Chargers better off without LT?

It raises a question much older than that from Colts fans. Is it fair to have an overtime system where the MVP of the league never gets the ball in his hands with the game on the line? My opinion, if not stated before, is that this overtime system is the best fit for the NFL. The Colts had their chance to stop the Chargers. Of course, the officiating did them no favors. I don’t know that any of the calls were so bad that I’ll scream conspiracy, but the pass interference call was very close. The face-mask call on the play right before the TD may have deflated the defense which would explain the ease of the 22 yard scamper.

A somewhat improbable season continues for the Chargers. Nobody expected them to start 4-8 and once they did they were thought dead for the playoffs. They won all four games they had to win to get in and on Saturday night beat a playoff team for the first time all year. They have Sproles and their defense to thank for that.

The Chargers D held Indianapolis to just 17 points and one of those touchdowns came on the kind of bush-league crap only the Colts pull where they caught the defense switching personnel and scored on a 72 yard pass play. The Chargers atoned for that mistake when they sacked Peyton Manning on 3rd and 2 with time winding down to allow them another shot at overtime.

The Chargers now head east to Pittsburgh. The Colts will go home and try to figure out how, with so much talent, this team is only 7-9 in the playoffs in the Peyton Manning Era and has just 3 wins outside of the 2006 season.

Baltimore Ravens 27

Miami Dolphins 9

Ravens defenders caught almost as many passes as their receivers on Sunday. Ed Reed had as many touchdowns as the Dolphins. A Recipe for Victory in Baltimore.

The Miami Dolphins turned the ball over just 13 times in 2008, but thanks to an awesome performance from the Ravens defense, 2009 did not go so well. Chad Pennington threw four interceptions and they lost a fumble. Baltimore’s rookie head coach and rookie QB did what the Falcons could not. They won on the road in the playoffs, it was their 10th win in 12 games and their first playoff win in five years.

Miami’s season ends and they certainly have nothing to be ashamed of. After a 1-15 season in 2007 the Dolphins went 11-5 this year and won the AFC East. This game forces many to wonder if the fact that their schedule included the AFC and NFC West played a part in that turnaround.

The Ravens played Super Bowl caliber defense and special teams, their offense needs to earn those efforts this week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Yes, Eagles Fans, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have won another playoff game. Still want them gone? Well, maybe, but not just yet. Not until they get their shot at the Super Bowl Champion Giants, a team they beat just a few weeks ago in a place where they won that game.

After being shut down for 3 1/2 quarters and held to 58 total yards, Brian Westbrook had his biggest play of the year, going 71 yards on a screen pass to score the clinching touchdown. The Eagles also got a big play from their key off-season acquisition when Asante Samuel did what he does, returning an interception 44 yards for a touchdown.

The much maligned Andy Reid is now 9-6 in the playoffs and for those keeping track that is better than Tony Dungy in the same span. Though he does lack that elusive ring. A goal which is still very much alive this season thanks to his teams victory on Sunday.

The Vikings worst fears were realized…they are still a Quarterback away. Though Tarvaris Jackson played well against Arizona and Detroit, his lack of growth was on full display against the Eagles aggressive defense. He finished just 15-35 for 164 yards. The Vikings got a good performance from Adrian Peterson and the defense played well for most of the game. All of that was negated by a terrible performance at the most important position.

Looking Back at Week 14

San Diego Chargers 34                                

Oakland Raiders 7

Chargers: The Chargers keep hopes of a playoff berth alive with this win. All it took was a win over the Raiders for every talking head to jump back on the bandwagon again. The Raiders were able to make plays downfield and take advantage of Raiders mistakes. Their linebackers played very well. The Chargers have won 11 in a row in December. The last team to beat them? The Broncos.

Raiders: The Raiders fall to 2-7 under interim head coach Tom Cable, all but assuring he will not be back with the team next year. The Raiders were able to score wins over the Jets and Broncos, both of which might be ploayoff teams, but were never able to build any consistency.

Chicago Bears 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Bears: The Bears got good QB play from Kyle Orton and big plays from Greg Olsen and Devin Hester. That combined with the fact that Matt Forte had his sixth straight 100+ yard game from scrimmage offer a glimpse of what the Bears wish their offense could be every week. The D and Special Teams are not as dominant as they once were, but they still make big plays and create points. The Bears remain just one out of first and still have a great shot at the division title.

Jaguars: Jacksonville suffers it’s fourth consecutive loss and things are getting worse. I think Jack Del Rio is safe because of all of the offensive line injuries, but their will have to be some changes made in the off-season to get this once promising franchise back on the right page.

Minnesota Vikings 20

Detroit Lions 16

Vikings: The Vikings were certainly lucky to maintain the Williams Wall this week as they came very close to doing the impossible, losing to the Lions. On offense, the team actually got better when Gus Frerotte went down and Travaris Jackson came in. The much-maligned Jackson went 8-10 and threw a touchdown. He was also very good at handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson, who finished with 105 rushing yards.

Lions: Time is running out for Detroit. They’re down to three games to avoid history and none of them look winnable. On one hand I love Marinelli going for it on fourth down for the entire first half as they had nothing to lose. On the other hand, why run it right at the Williams’ both times? Daunte Culpepper got hurt at the end of the game and now the Lions may have to try to get that win with Dan Orlovsky at QB.

Houston Texans 24

Green Bay Packers 21

Texans: At some point, if the Texans are ever going to be competitive they are going to have to get more consistent. They won their third in a row but still look to finish the season under .500. They look going into next season as they have terrific playmakers on both sides of the ball. But, we thought that this year didn’t we?

Packers: Green Bay can not figure out a way to win close games. They are 0-5 in games decided by four points or less. Thus is probably the biggest difference between last year’s Packers and this year’s version. Unlucky? Inexperienced? Hard to say, but whatever it is the Packers will have to figure out a way to fix it in the off-season as it looks over this year.

Indianapolis Colts 35

Cincinnati Bengals 3

Colts: There is no hotter team in the league right now than the Colts. They have won six straight and are playing well on both sides of the ball. They still haven’t even hit their stride. What’s going to happen if they ever get it going full tilt? They could be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

Bengals: Cincinnati is a really bad team. They are 0-7 on the road and are unsure whether to play Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jordan Palmer at QB. That is not a decision you want to make. Is Carson Palmer getting healthy really all it’s going to take?

New Orleans Saints 29

Atlanta Falcons 25

Saints: New Orleans maintains a little hope, moving to 7-6. Drew Brees completed his first fourth quarter comeback as a Saint, of course it was only from one point down. New Orleans actually plays okay defense and they have a ton of offensive weapons. Which makes you wonder, is Sean Payton any good? Well, he can be. Though if the Saints had failed on their fourth-down attempt in the red-zone late in the game I think most would answer in the negative.

Falcons: I don’t think you would take much negative out of this game when it comes to the Falcons. Unfortunately, it might have really hurt their playoff chances. Because it was a divisional loss they went fromthe sixth-seed to out of the playoffs. The future is still bright however, as the defense is improving and on offense they can both run and throw.

Philadelphia Eagles 20

New York Giants 14

Eagles: What do the Eagles look like when Brian Westbrook gets almost 40 touches? Like a team that can beat the Conference’s best in their own house. Too bad it took so long for Andy Reid to figure it all out. The Eagles are still mathematically alive in the playoffs, but as has been their trend the past couple of years they digged a deep hole that will be hard to get out of.

Giants: New York lost in the Meadowlands for the first time this season and looked terrible in doing so. For the entire week leading up to the game, every talking head told us that the Giants were too mature and well-led to be distracted by the Plax Situation. So of course right afterwards the same “experts” told us that was why they lost. I don’t know if that’s the case or not, but they better shake off whatever it was because their year is not going to get any easier.

Tennessee Titans 28

Cleveland Browns 9

Titans: Tennessee clinched the AFC South for the first time in six years and did it in typical Titan-fashion. Businesslike. Chris Johnson ran for 136 yards and LenDale White ran for 99. The Titans defense was also terrific giving up just 185 yards of offense. They’re not sexy and nobody will pick them, but they are the clear favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Browns: Cleveland has lost five of their last six games and have not scored a TD in six weeks. Rumors swirled right after the game that Romeo Crennel would be fired at the end of the year and the Browns would attempt to get Marty Schottenheimer back. Also, look for Bernie Kosar to be the new backup, Earnest Byner to replace Jamal Lewis and Webster Slaughter to catch way more balls next year than Braylon Edwards.

Miami Dolphins 16

Buffalo Bills 3

Dolphins: The Dolphins have won six out of seven and this one was just as ugly as most of them. But a win is a win and eight wins is seven more than they had last year. Chad Pennington may be the biggest reason for the turnaround as his efficiency fits a “Parcells” offense perfectly. He has thrown for more yards this season than Brett Favre. Miami is a serious playoff contender with a great defense and an offense that doesn’t beat itself.

Bills: J.P. Losman did not provide the spark that the Bills were hoping for. I don’t know what happened to this team’s offense, but Trent Edwards went from MVP Candidate to being very unsure whether he’ll be the starting QB next season.

San Francisco 49ers 24

New York Jets 14

49ers: This game should be enough to earn Mike Singletary a permanent position. They not only beat a pretty good Jets team, they dominated them. If they have their coach and Shaun Hill is as good as he’s looked in limited action we can all go into next year pretending they’re going to be better again.

Jets: IF the Jets make the playoffs, they better hope they don’t have to head west to say Denver. They’ve been horrible out west, losing to San Diego, Oakland and now the Niners. Don’t count the Jets out though. They do still have a hall of fame QB, a sometimes solid defense and a good run game. What they are missing is something intangible. It’s up to Coach Mangini to figure that out.

New England Patriots 24

Seattle Seahawks 21

Patriots: The game was a microcosm for the New England Season. They weren’t great, but in the end they figured it out and came out on top. They also lost a couple more key players in Vince Wilfork and Tedy Bruschi. The Patriots may have to win their last three in order to make the playoffs. They are all winnable games, but with their injuries it’s easy to imagine them slipping as they almost did here.

Seahawks: Seattle has lost six straight and five in a row at home. Not how they wanted to send Mike Holmgren out of Seattle. They have already lost more games than they ever did in the Holmgren Era and will struggle to win another this year.

Arizona Cardinals 34

St. Louis Rams 10

Cardinals: Arizona wins a division title for the first time in 33 years and will make their first playoff appearance in a decade. They will host their first playoff game in 61 years.  They certainly have the offense to contend once they get there and if their defense can contribute 14 points as it did here they could be very dangerous.

Rams: St. Louis will not have Jim Haslett back next year. Torry Holt has already said he’s not interested in playing there next year.  Marc Bulger figures to be expendable. Who else will be gone? Ladies and Gentlemen, Meet the Mid-West Raiders. Super Bowl to joke in less than a decade.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Dallas Cowboys 13

Steelers: How good is the Steelers defense? They haven’t given up 300 yards of offense all year, the 88 yards Tashard Choice had on Sunday was the most they’ve given up on the ground all year, they’ve given up 50 points in their last four games and they are beating good teams with no offense at all. They had 3 sacks and forced 4 turnovers. I don’t know if they can win in the playoffs without an offense, but they’ll get there.

Cowboys: They had it. Romo had a big win in December. They had a game won in freezing temperatures. They were going to live up to the hype. Then reality punched them in the face and returned a third Tony Romo pick for a game-winning touchdown. Jerry Jones may or may not question Marion Barber’s toughness, but I question the toughness of the whole team.

Denver Broncos 24

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Broncos: I saw in the most recent Power Rankings that the Broncos were ranked behind Dallas, the Jets, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. This is a team that is going to shock people in the playoffs. When Cutler is on I really don’t believe there is a defense in the league that can stop him. He made passes on Sunday that were incredible and only he could make. Yeah, he threw a pick-six, but that’s what you get with a gunslinger. We’ll get a stronger sense of just how good the Broncos can be this Sunday against Carolina, but their upside is extraordinary. They will of course have to go forward with their sixth different starting Half-Back this week.

Chiefs: The Chiefs didn’t play bad, they’re just not talented enough to win. Herman Edwars is likely safe for the next two years at least, but when are they going to get better.

Baltimore Ravens 24

Washington Redskins 10

Ravens: They looked a lot like the Ravens of old. Stifling defense, an okay run game and not much out of the QB. I thought Flacco played poorly, but the defense and Ed Reed in particular certainly were able to hide him. The Ravens have the Steelers and Cowboys in the next two weeks and have to win at least one to stay in the hunt.

Redskins: Anybody still want to argue with me about the Redskins being a bit of a farce? They are unable to make plays downfield and Jason Campbell is very inconsistent. Teams began putting eight in the box on them about a month into the season and we’ve seen the impact of that on Portis and the team as a whole.

Carolina Panthers 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Panthers: Probably the most impressive win of the week. Did anybody think Carolina would put up over 200 yards rushing on the Bucs? As long as they can move the ball like that on the ground they are going to dominate. Some flaws were also exposed. Jake Delhomme has taken a big step back in the past month and is making horrible decisions. His only success in the passing game comes from chucking up prayer balls to Steve Smith. They are also vulnerable on pass defense as evidenced by Antonio Bryant’s success.

Buccaneers: I think some of the age was showing on Tampa in this game, especially on defense. They are often called a young team and maybe that’s true as a whole, but they are aged at some key spots. QB, RB, WR, DL, LB, CB…they’re all pretty old. They looked much slower than Carolina in this game.

Week 14 Preview

I will not be adding fantasy notes anymore as your season is in the last weeks and your team is pretty much set. I will be slightly changing the format of the previews as well.

Oakland Raiders (3-9) @ San Diego Chargers (4-8)

Announcers: Bob Papa and Cris Collinsworth

Storylines: A rivalry game on Prime Time. The Chargers are running out of last chances and a loss here would go a long way to taking them officially out of the playoff picture. The Raiders look to avenge a 28-18 loss to the Chargers earlier this year, in which they blew a 15 point lead.

How the Raiders Will Win: The Raiders need to run the ball at least 35 times on Thursday in order to win. They should take a page from the Giants on how to use a three-tiered run attack. Fargas gets the bulk, Michael Bush in short yardage, McFadden on pass plays and late in the game when the defense is prone to give up big plays.

How the Chargers Will Win: The Chargers need to ride the arm of Philip Rivers and get the ball into the hands of Gates and LT. The wide receivers have had nice seasons, but Nnamdi and Chris Johnson have played well as a unit. Rivers will have opportunities to use his two most reliable targets and could get some big plays out of them.

Pick: Raiders. The Chargers barely got by the Raiders earlier this season, a deceiving 10 point spread, and have only gotten worse as the season went on. They give up too many sacks and the big plays will be hard to come by against the Raiders. San Diego wins this game if they find some heart, but I haven’t seen that yet this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) @ Chicago Bears (6-6)

Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

Storylines: Not much from a Jacksonville standpoint as they begin a month of playing for no apparent reason. Guys are clearly playing for their jobs and possibly Coach Del Rio’s. The Bears are only a game out of first and the suspensions coming down for Kevin and Pat Williams have to make them more confident than they were a few days ago.

How the Jaguars Will Win: Jacksonville needs to get the ball into Fred Taylor’s hands early in this one. In the previous couple of games the Jags have fallen behind early and abandoned the run game much earlier than they would like. Even if they do get done by a score or even two in this game they need to allow Taylor to punish the Bears early and hopefully open some holes for MJD.

How the Bears Will Win: The Bears will win if Kyle Orton can shake off his poor play from last week and keep his thoughts moving forward. They should also be able to have success throwing the ball to Matt Forte out of the backfield. Receiving backs have been something that has hurt the Jaguars this season.

Pick: Bears. Orton has always played well at Soldier Field and the Jaguars don’t seem to have their head in the game any longer. Jacksonville will also line up without Rashean Mathis, which could open up big plays for Devin Hester.

Minnesota Vikings (7-5) @ Detroit Lions (0-12)

Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan

Storylines: The Vikings have a one game lead in the North and will have both of the Williams’ this week in a must win game, as the Vikings have no cushion. It’s a must win game in another way for the Lions who attempt to avoid becoming the first winless team in nearly three decades. Daunte Culpepper starts against his former team for only the second time.

How the Vikings Will Win: Minnesota will feed Adrian Peterson the ball All Day. It is as no-brain a game plan as their is in the league this week. Chester Taylor could contribute 50-75 rushing yards as well. The Lions give up almost 180 rushing yards per game.

How the Lions Will Win: It would have been easier if their was not an injunction handed down to stay the suspension of the Williams Wall. The Lions need to pull out every trick in the world to get this division win at home and give their fans something to cheer about this year. Don’t Punt, unless you have to. Don’t kick Field Goals and use every trick you know.

Pick: Vikings. I was ready to pick Detroit when it looked like they might be able to run the ball. I don’t see it now. As long as Gus Frerotte doesn’t turn the ball over three times (which he shouldn’t as he should only be asked to throw it about 10-15 times) I don’t see how the Lions win.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Announcers: Ian Eagle and Solomon Wilcots

Storylines: The Colts nearly slipped last week against the Browns, something which they can not afford to do. Their road into the playoffs is not a difficult one as long as they get the easy ones done.

Howthe Bengals Will Win: Silly though it may sound against Peyton Manning, the Bengals should put 8 in the box and take away the Colt Run Game. Look at how bad the Colts looked early in the season before Joseph Addai got healthy. Peyton is going to get his, don’t let Addai add to the hurt.

How the Colts Will Win: As long as Manning rebounds from a sorry week against the Browns it shouldn’t be hard to beat the one-win Bengals.

Pick: Colts. I almost went the other way here, and if Palmer were coming back I would. The Colts are decimated on defense and their offense is still not really clicking, but the Bengals just don’t have the talent to take advantage of either of those facts.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) @ New York Giants (11-1)

Announcers: Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston

Storylines: The Giants attempt to continue to overcome the off-field issues and clinch the NFC East, much earlier than anybody could have expected. They can actually clinch a first-round bye with a win this week. The Eagles try to get back into the hunt by going on the kind of late season run they had last year.

How the Eagles Will Win: If Donovan McNabb continues to be positively motivated by his short-term benching a couple of weeks ago and takes his act on the road then the Eagles could very easily win this game.

How the Giants Will Win: First of all by keeping their heads in the game, which shouldn’t be a problem with Tom Coughlin as their head coach. They also need to dominate the line of scrimmage. The Eagles have a very good defensive line, but they play overly aggressive at times which if exploited properly could open up some big runs.

Pick: Giants. The Giants have plenty of receivers to cover for Plax, as I’ve said all season, and their run game will have success against Philadelphia. The Eagles beat a Cardinal team who struggles to run the ball and has an average defense. They are not so fortunate this week.

Cleveland Browns (4-8) @ Tennessee Titans (11-1)

Announcers: Don Criqui and Dan Fouts

Storylines: The Titans can clinch the AFC South for the first time since 2002 by beating a Cleveland team starting their third string QB.

How the Browns Will Win: Well, if Ken Dorsey shocks the world and lights up the field they got a chance.

How the Titans Will Win: They get Kyle Vanden Bosch back this week so look for the Titans to simply dominate the line of scrimmage with a four man rush and pressure Ken Dorsey into turning the ball over a half dozen times or so.

Pick: Titans. Yeah.

Atlanta Falcons (8-4) @ New Orleans Saints (6-6)

Announcers: Dick Stockton, Brian Baldinger and Brian Billick

Storylines: The Falcons have won back to back games to become a strong Wild-Card candidate. A third straight win will have people talking division. The Saints are desperate and a loss here eliminates them from playoff contention.

How the Falcons Will Win: This game could become a shoot-out which puts the onus on Matt Ryan. He needs to be able to find his receivers downfield and come up with big plays against a Saints team that will likely play without their two best pass rushers.

How the Saints Will Win: They need Reggie Bush to put in the kind of performance that he was drafted for. He was lackluster last week and that hurt the entire offense, he needs to create plays in order to beat a better Atlanta Team.

Pick: Falcons. The suspensions of Will Smith and Charles Grant are the clincher here. The Falcons were already going to be able to run. Now the door is open for Ryan to connect on big pass plays to a very talented group of receivers especially Roddy White and the emerging Harry Douglas.

Houston Texans (5-7) @ Green Bay Packers (5-7)

Announcers: GUS JOHNSON!!! and Steve Tasker

Storylines: Who would have thought in September that these two teams would have the same record in December? The Packers face a must-win situation at home against a Houston Team that isn’t playing for much but still appear to be playing hard.

How the Texans Will Win: Steve Slaton needs to go over 1,000 yards. Not in the game, though that would be incredible. 96 rushing yards will get him over the plateau and give the Texans their best chance to win.

How the Packers Will Win: The Packers need to treat this game like a playoff Sunday in Lambeau. They need to establish a run game and put pressure on the QB. Two things that they have not always done well this season.

Pick: Packers. Aaron Rodgers has been great at Lambeau and asking a Houston team to travel to Wisconsin in December is asking a lot.

Miami Dolphins (7-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-6)

Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon

Storylines: Playoff Football between two AFC East Rivals. It doesn’t get much better than that for a fan who came up in the late 80’s and early 90’s. Except that the damn game is being played in Canada. A Dolphin Win puts them right in the thick of things for the wild-card and maybe even division. A Bills loss eliminates them from the conversation.

How the Dolphins Will Win: Chad Pennington needs to get the ball out of his hands early and into the hands of his playmakers. Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn and Daevon Bess are all capable of turning quick hits into big plays and the Bills defense has been prone to giving up some big plays in the past two months.

How the Bills Will Win: Screen Passes to Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Miami likes to get after the QB and they play a very aggressive form of defense. You don’t have to be a football genius to know that screens are the counter to that.

Pick: Dolphins. I don’t care what they say, the Bills lose the home-field advantage by travelling north of the border. Their are probably as many Dolphins fans in Canada as Bills. Buffalo is really struggling to consistently move the football, so look for Miami to win another hard-fought game.

New York Jets (8-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-8)

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. Look for no further evidence of how far up Brett Favre’s ass the NFL and it’s partners are than the fact that CBS top Broadcast duo is doing this game instead of Buffalo vs. Miami.

Storylines: The Jets look to shake off not only the loss to Denver last week, but their poor performances against San Diego and Oakland the last two times they had to head west. The 49ers have players playing for jobs next year, not the least of which is Shaun Hill who for the second straight season has played well when his number was called.

How the Jets Will Win: The 49ers have the 28th ranked pass defense in the league, which bodes well for Brett who is 7-0 against them in his career in the regular season. Look for them to avoid the gadget plays and produce a quick and efficient pass attack against the Niners.

How the 49ers Will Win: Hill is 4-1 as a starter on a team that has been horrible otherwise. If he protects the football and makes some plays the Niners actually have a really good chance to win this game.

Pick: Jets. I think New York does enough to get it done, though I think it might be a lot closer than some may expect.

New England Patriots (7-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-10)

Announcers: Dick Enberg and Randy Cross

Storylines: The Patriots and all of their fans (looking at you Goodell) are salivating as their last four games look winnable and they expect to have a fairly easy road into the playoffs. The Seahawks and their crowd hope to spoil that party.

How the Patriots Will Win: The Patriots try to overcome the coast-to-coast troubles as well and their best plan to travel is by ground. They need to focus the run attack on Sammy Morris who is their most consistent runner. The Hawks don’t do much well, but they can attack the passer. The Patriots need to run to set up the pass this week.

How the Seahawks Will Win: Hasselbeck needs to protect the football and get it out of his hand quickly. The Patriots linebackers are not built to cover in the 10-15 yard range which should leave some things open over the middle.

Pick: Patriots. Possible upset alert here. In the end, I just think the Patriots are still too good to lose this game. I think they probably do win out and could still very easily win the East.

St. Louis Rams (2-10) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-5)

Announcers: Matt Vasgersian and JC Pearson

Storylines: The Cardinals can clinch the division with a win, of course that’s been the case for a couple of week and they haven’t pulled it off yet. They get their best chance this week against the Rams.

How the Rams Will Win: They need to get Steven Jackson 27-30 touches and hope for the best. He has been beat up all year, but still gives them their best chance to win.

How the Cardinals Will Win: They need to balance their offense better. Tim Hightower had just 7 carries last week. He needs to be more around 22 which he got against the Rams in Week 7 and went for 109 yards.

Pick: Cardinals. Arizona finally clinches their first division title in my lifetime.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Denver Broncos (7-5)

Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beurlein

Storylines: The Broncos try to snap a three-game home losing streak and avenge an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs earlier this year. If the Raiders pull off the upset on Thursday, the Broncos could also be in line to clinch the division with a win.

How the Chiefs Will Win: Larry Johnson had 198 rushing yards in the week 4 win over Denver and Tony Gonzales had a touchdown. The Chiefs will have to go with their two old warriors to pull out the upset in Mile High.

How the Broncos Will Win: Jay Cutler obviously needs to play better than he did in September, but the key is showing a continued dedication to running the ball. Peyton Hillis had his first 100 yard game last week and while he’s not a home run threat, giving him 18-24 carries a game keeps the Chiefs honest and opens up the bootleg for Cutler.

Pick: Broncos. Call me a sucker, but I”m buying into Denver again. Not as a Super Bowl Contender, but at least as a team that can beat the Chiefs at home.

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2)

Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Storylines: A possible Super Bowl Preview and a match-up between two of the most celebrated franchises in the history of the league.

How the Cowboys Will Win: DeMarcus Ware needs to be in Ben’s face all day. The Steelers still have problems on their O-line and Dallas at times has been very good at pressuring the QB. Maybe they can even make him throw a pick to the returning Pac Man Jones.

How the Steelers Will Win: Steelers Football. They need to pound the ball using either Parker or Moore and pick up the tough yards on third and short or goal to go situations.

Pick: Cowboys. I don’t love the Cowboys, but I think PIttsburgh is due for a slight letdown. I think Roethlisberger does make some mistakes in this game and the Cowboys do just enough to take advantage of their opportunities.

Washington Redskins (7-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

Announcers: Al Michaels and John Madden

Storylines: A playoff caliber game as the Redskins need to win here to stay in the hunt and the Ravens can not afford to lose a home game with their tough schedule down the stretch if they hope to get in.

How the Redskins Will Win: The Redskins need to find a way to create points in this one. The best way may be through special teams, which is Baltimore’s weakest unit.

How the Ravens Will Win: The Ravens also need to be creative on both sides of the ball. They need to find ways to get into Jason Campbell’s head and continue to find ways into the end zone.

Pick: Ravens. With Clinton Portis nursing so many injuries I don’t see the Redskins hanging in there too long. Their offense is nearly non-existant since Portis starting slowing down.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) @ Carolina Panthers (9-3)

Announcers: Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski

Storylines: Game of the Week. For First place in the NFC South.

How the Bucs Will Win: They need to establish their own one-two punch which they started last week. Cadillac and Warrick Dunn compliment each other well and Atlanta had great success against Carolina by spelling their backs at the right time.

How the Panthers Will Win: Jake Delhomme needs to play better. He needs to protect the football and make more plays. The run game might struggle against a very good TB defense, which means Delhomme will have to lead them to victory.

Pick: Panthers. I think this will be a heck of a game. In the end I just think Carolina has the more potential for an explosive play to put the game away.

Looking Back at Week 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Why the Steelers Won: For just the second time this season, the Steelers offensive line went the entire game without giving up a sack.

Why the Bengals Lost: On Cincinnati’s touchdown drive they were 3 for 3 on third down. They were 1-12 the rest of the game.

MVP: James Farrior had 11 tackles and led a dominant defensive effort by the Steelers.

What It All Means: The Steelers sweep the season series and are currently in line for a first-round bye. The Bengals put in their worst effort in a couple of weeks and looked completely outmatched in PIttsburgh.

Baltimore Ravens 36

Philadelphia Eagles 7

Why the Ravens Won: The Ravens defense allowed seven points and created 5 turnovers, turning those mistakes into 17 points.

Why the Eagles Lost: Trailing 10-7 at halftime, Andy Reid benched Donovan McNabb and turned instead to Kevin Kolb to lead the team. He did not inform the team of this at halftime and most players didn’t know until Kolb ran into the huddle at the start of the third quarter. The Eagles looked dejected from that point on.

MVP: Ed Reed set an NFL Record with a 108 yard interception return for a TD.

What It All Means: Good win for the Ravens, but the aftermath of this game will be focused on the Eagles. McNabb has been named the starter for Thursday Night against the Cardinals, which makes the move on Sunday even more curious. The Coach, QB and franchise seem to be in a state of shock and confusion at this point.

Houston Texans 16

Cleveland Browns 6

Why the Texans Won: Houston entered Sunday 32nd in the league in turnover ratio. On Sunday they won that battle 5-2.

Why the Browns Lost: The Browns used both QB’s both struggled. Meanwhile, Jamal Lewis was averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He had just 10 carries.

MVP: Kevin Walter had 7 catches for 93 yards and the game’s only touchdown.

What It All Means: Which coach from the Belicheat Tree gets fired first? Crennel or Weis?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

Detroit Lions 20

Why the Bucs Won: Special teams was key for Tampa Bay. They had 230 return yards and scored a 70 yard punt return for a TD in the third quarter that provided a cushion.

Why the Lions Lost: Detroit QB’s were a combined 10/26 which led to too many 3 and outs early and let the Bucs not only get back into the game, but run away with it.

MVP: Veteran Ronde Barber had two interceptions in the game and both resulted in points for Tampa Bay.

What It All Means: The Bucs have won 3 in a row and are the quietest 8-3 team in the league. With it being more and more likely that they will make the playoffs, and Atlanta looking strong, the fact that every talking head in the world said that three playoff teams would come from the NFC East looks kind of stupid, huh? Oh and the Lions are going 0-16.

Buffalo Bills 54

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Why the Bills Won: Buffalo’s defense created 5 turnovers, Buffalo’s offense committed none.

Why the Chiefs Lost: This game was not a blowout until late, yet Larry Johnson had just 7 rushes.

MVP: Trent Edwards ran for 38 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 273 yards and another pair of scores.

What It All Means: Herman Edwards is one of the smartest coaches in the league. Despite never building a winner he keeps his job or gets a new one each year. Why? He always finds a scapegoat. This year it is Larry Johnson, who did make mistakes off the field, but has barely been used even when on the field. Herm will call him a distraction at the end of the year and get rid of him and lead the Chiefs to a 6-10 record next year.

Chicago Bears 27

St. Louis Rams 3

Why the Bears Won: The Bears run defense stiffened considerably on Sunday, allowing just 14 yards to the Rams.

Why the Rams Lost: This team needs torn down as they appear to have quit, as is testified to by the way they come out of the gate each week. They have been outscored 99-16 in the first half the last three weeks.

MVP: If not for the other Matt, Forte would be a lock for Rookie of the Year. He went for 132 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.

What It All Means: The Bears are in first place and Kyle Orton appears healthy, which is good news for them. If they get into the playoffs they are a dangerous team.

New York Jets 34

Tennessee Titans 13

Why the Jets Won: They beat the Titans at their own game. They shut down the run and then ran it down the throat of the number one rush defense in the league. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington combined for 178 yards and two touchdowns.

Why the Titans Lost: The Titans ran the ball just 11 times partly because they once again found themselves in a hole. They punted on their first five possessions.

MVP: Brett Favre was 25-32 for 224 yards and two touchdowns.

What It All Means: The Jets last two weeks were the most impressive back-to-back wins by any team this season. They are playing lights out football and were the best team in the league in November. The Titans have some serious question marks as their run defense and offense has fallen off in the past three weeks. They may not be as strong as many think heading into the playoffs.

New England Patriots 48

Miami Dolphins 28

Why the Patriots Lost: Matt Cassel threw for 400 yards for the second straight week and the offense looked like the juggernaut that it was last season.

Why the Dolphins Lost: They got just 25 yards out of 8 wildcat plays.

MVP: Randy Moss had 8 catches for 125 yards and three touchdowns.

What It All Means: The Dolphins had been showing signs of slipping for a couple of weeks so this should have come as no surprise. The media of course loves the opportunity to slobber all over Belicheat and the Patriots, but before we crown them we should remind ourselves why Matt Cassel had to throw for over 400 yards two weeks in a row. Their run game is still very inconsistent and their defense is far below what it once was.

Minnesota Vikings 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Why the Vikings Won: Minnesota scored two touchdowns off of Jacksonville turnovers in the first 1:30 of the game. This took the Jags completely out of their offensive game plan.

Why the Jaguars Lost: Taylor and Drew combined for just 9 carries in the game.

MVP: The entire Vikings defense was terrific, Antoine Winfield had 11 tackles and a forced fumble.

What It All Means: It is officially over for Jacksonville. Minnesota is tied for first and host the Bears on Sunday Night with an opportunity to create some seperation.

Dallas Cowboys 35

San Francisco 49ers 22

Why the Cowboys Won: The Cowboys scored on long drives and on big plays and looked like the offense we expected to see all along.

Why the Niners Lost: Frank Gore had just 15 touches and continues to be the most criminally underused talent in the league.

MVP: First Moss and now TO. He had 213 receiving yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

What It All Means: The importance of Tony Romo can no longer be glossed over, yeah it was just the Niners, but remember the Romo-less Cowboys lost to the Rams. The Cowboys are firmly back in contention in the NFC and the return of Felix Jones, as well as figuring out how WR Roy Williams fits will make them an even more dangerous team.

Atlanta Falcons 45

Carolina Panthers 28

Why the Falcons Won: The Falcons not only ran the ball extremely well, but Matt Ryan played a fantastic game spreading the ball around and making no big mistakes.

Why the Panthers Lost: The Panthers committed 8 penalties and converted just 5 third downs.

MVP: Rookie Harry Douglas had 4 catches for 92 yards and a rushing touchdown.

What It All Means: The toughest division in football is far from wrapped up. The Falcons are very much alive in the division and three teams could easily come out of the South.

Washington Redskins 20

Seattle Seahawks 17

Why the Redskins Won: As Portis goes, so go the Skins. He had 143 yards rushing in this game.

Why the Seahawks Lost: They had just 22 minutes of possession. That means the Skins defense was much more fresh than the Hawks at the end of the game and it showed.

MVP: Despite his knee injury Portis had 143 yards on 29 carries.

What It All Means: Clinton Portis should be getting more MVP Love.

New York Giants 37

Arizona Cardinals 29

Why the Giants Won: The Giants started five drives in Arizona territory and all of them ended with scores.

Why the Cardinals Lost: They were unable to run the ball at all to compliment their potent pass attack. They ran for just 23 yards.

MVP: I said earlier in the year that I thought Domenik Hixon was good enough to make Plax expendable and he showed it again in a big game here, coming up with 270 all purpose yards.

What It All Means: I still think the Cardinals are good, but the Giants are clearly the class of the Conference as they won this game without Plax or Brandon Jacobs.

Oakland Raiders 31

Denver Broncos 10

Why the Raiders Won: The points came in bunches after a long drought for the Raiders they were able to catch the Broncos reeling for 21 points on just 18 plays in the second half.

Why the Broncos Lost: They couldn’t get up for this game? The Raiders at home? A chance to just about put the division to bed? A must win before having to travel to New York? For the third consecutive game at Mile High, the Broncos just didn’t seem to care that much.

MVP: Justin Fargas ran for 107 yards and set up both 4th quarter touchdowns.

What It All Means: The Raiders wanted this one way more than the Broncos and that definitely showed. Denver continues to be unable to overcome early mistakes. It happened against Jacksonville, Miami, New England and Oakland. If they turn the ball over before they score, they are unable to bounce back from it. Denver is going to win the West. But, it’s going to be with an 8-8 record.

Indianapolis Colts 23

San Diego Chargers 20

Why the Colts Won: Going for it on fourth down late in the game and throwing a 13 yard out route to Marvin Harrison was a very gutsy call that paid off with a win.

Why the Chargers Lost: They’re just not that good. They played their best game on Sunday and still got beat at home.

MVP: Peyton Manning threw for 255 yards and a pair of scores and was 4-6 on the game winning drive.

What It All Means: The Colts are a dangerous team right now and are building momentum for a playoff run. The Chargers are done and everybody that keeps waiting for them to turn it around shouldn’t hold their breath.

New Orleans Saints 51

Green Bay Packers 29

Why the Saints Won: New Orleans averaged an amazing 12 yards per pass play against a very good GB secondary.

Why the Packers Lost: Aaron Rodgers couldn’t keep up. In a shoot-out, his second half turnovers were key.

MVP: Lance Moore had 5 catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns.

What It All Means: The Packers are hanging on by a thread. But, so are the Saints.

Week 11 Preview

Detroit Lions (0-9) @ Carolina Panthers (7-2)

Announcers: Ron Pitts and Tony Boselli

Storylines: The Panthers try to bounce back from an ugly win over a terrible Raiders Team and establish some dominance against another terrible team in Detroit. The Lions are looking for their first win of the season to keep Rod Marinelli from being the first coach to go 0-16 in a season. They will start Daunte Culpepper for a second straight week.

Key to the Game: Quarterback Play. Jake Delhomme can not play like he did last week and expect another victory. Daunte Culpepper was not terrible last week, especially considering that he started on 3 days practice for the entire season.

Fantasy Note: Look for DeAngelo Williams to get a lot of touches against a bad run defense, when he has 80 yards in his career the Panthers are 9-0.

Pick: Panthers. I’ve said before that the Lions won’t get their first win on the road and I stand by that. Look for Delhomme to bounce back here and have a nice game en route to maintaining first place in the South.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-8)

Announcers: Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston

Storylines: The Eagles look to bounce back from a close loss to the Giants. The Eagles are now 0-4 this year in games decided by less than a touchdown. They are 1-8 over the last two years in close games. The Bengals had a week off to celebrate their first win of the season over Jacksonville in week 9.

Key to the Game: Brian Westbrook. He needs to touch the ball more than 13 times, like he did last week. If he can get more than 20 touches, the Eagles have an excellent chance to win.

Fantasy Note: Chad Johnson is averaging 6 catches per game over his last four and has scored touchdowns in three of those four games.

Pick: Eagles. I look for the Eagles defense to dominate this game. They will blitz young Ryan Fitzpatrick all day long and Cincinnati does not have the run game to counter that.

New Orleans Saints (4-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick

Storylines: The Saints are at the point where even the most dim-witted pundit has to see that their season is hanging by a string. Though many have been unwilling to give up on the preseason favorites, they are in a spot where they will need to go at least 6-1 to make the playoffs. The Bengals have played well in recent weeks, but have no wins to show for it. They will look to get it done at Arrowhead.

Key to the Game: Larry Johnson. He will return as the featured back this week and the Chiefs will need him to be effective in order to control the clock and keep the Saints offense off the field.

Fantasy Note: Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record. He has thrown for 300 yards in three consecutive starts against the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs. Tyler Thigpen has played well enough in the past couple of weeks. The Chiefs will put up enough points to upset a very one-dimensional Saints offense. Remember what they did to Cutler and the Broncos in week 4.

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) @ New York Giants (8-1)

Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

Storylines: Baltimore rides a four game win streak into the Meadowlands to face the team that many believe is the best in the league. A rematch of Super Bowl XXXV. The Ravens will be without a league high 16 players due to season ending injuries.

Key to the Game: Strength vs. Strength. The Ravens are the number one rush defense in the league. The Giants are the number one rushing offense. The Ravens haven’t given up a 100 yard rusher in 28 games.

Fantasy Note: Joe Flacco has played well recently and has gotten picked up in most leagues. Don’t start him here. He hasn’t faced a top 12 pass defense in over a month. This week he faces the second best pass defense in the league and number 3 in sacks.

Pick: Giants. The Giants defense will win this game by a close margin. They can take away the Ravens run game and force rookie Flacco to beat him. Something I don’t think he is ready to do yet.

Minnesota Vikings (5-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Announcers: Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan

Storylines: The Vikings try to make it 5 out of 6 against a Tampa team coming off a bye. The two old NFC Central Rivals are both right in the hunt for playoff spots and both need wins here to maintain that position. Cadillac Williams makes his 2008 debut.

Key to the Game: Garcia’s Mobility. Jared Allen has been dominant in recent weeks and will be taking on Donald Penn this week. Jeff Garcia will have to be aware of him at all times and use his legs to make some plays.

Fantasy Note: Adrian Peterson is not as strong a start as you think this week. He has, in his young career, shown a trend of inconsistency. He has never run for 80 yards in five straight games. He has over 100 in his last four. The Bucs have only given up 66 yards per game on the ground at home and are 4-0 in those games.

Pick: Vikings. Look for Chester Taylor to actually play a bigger role than Peterson this week. The Bucs are susceptible to screens and short passes, so look for Brad Childress to return to his true west coast roots. Both teams could struggle to run the ball and Gus Frerotte is the more likely QB to come up with the deep balls taht could be the difference in what will likely be a low-scoring game.

Oakland Raiders (2-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-4)

Announcers: Ian Eagle and Solomon Wilcots

Storylines: The Dolphins are just one of several teams who had top 10 picks last year and are now driving for the playoffs. After a 1-15 season in 2007, The Dolphins could be in second place in the East with a win here. Yet, the Raiders will have their seventh straight losing season.

Key to the Game: Oakland’s Offensive LIne. They gave up 3 sacks and a forced fumble to John Abraham. They gave up 3 sacks and a forced fumble to Julius Peppers. This week they face NFL Sack Leader Joey Porter.

Fantasy Note: Both Miami running backs should be starts. Oakland has struggled against the run and Ricky Williams is becoming a bigger part of the offense, coming off his first 100 yard game. Ronnie Brown hasn’t gotten huge yards in recent weeks, but has 10 touchdowns in his last 8 games.

Pick: Dolphins. It’s hard enough to travel across the country and play in Miami, it’s harder when you’re an awful team.

Chicago Bears (5-4) @ Green Bay Packers (4-5)

Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Storylines: The first meeting of the season in one of the game’s best rivalries. The Bears have won five of the last six meetings. The Packers, once the favorites in the North, try to just get back into the picture. The Bears seek some consistency.

Key to the Game: Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are terrific against the run, but are ranked 30th against the pass. Rodgers will need a Kerry Collins-esque performance to get his team back in the win column.

Fantasy Note: The Packers have given up 178 and 220 yards on the ground the last two weeks. Now they’ll have to play without MLB Nick Barnett. Look for Rookie RB Matt Forte to have a huge game for Chicago.

Pick: Bears. Lambeau is not quite as intimidating as it used to be, but Brian Urlacher is. Look for him to get into Rodgers face and possibly his head. The Packers can not stop the run and will not win against a smashmouth team like Chicago until the relearn how to do just that.

Houston Texans (3-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-4)

Announcers: GUS JOHNSON!!! and Steve Tasker

Storylines: The Streaky Texans look to get back into the win column against a team that has dominated them since their debut in the league. The Colts are 12-1 in the series, including a gift win courtesy of Sage Rosenfels earlier this season. Rosenfels played well last year, but has turned the ball over 7 times in 3 starts this season.

Key to the Game: Colts Secondary. They will have the unenviable task of covering Andre Johnson, who is averaging 120 yards per game over the last 6. If they can come up with the interceptions, as they did against the Steelers last week, the short field will mean a lot to a suddenly inconsistent Colts Offense.

Fantasy Note: Dallas Clark has 3 touchdowns in the past 3 games.

Pick: Colts. If you can’t win the division game at home, it is very hard to win it on the road. This time Bob Sanders will be on the field, which won’t make it any easier for Sage.

Denver Broncos (5-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon

Storylines: At the beginning of the year, you probably would not have expected the Falcons to be the overwhelming favorites in this game. Rookie Matt Ryan has played very well and a win here solidifies them in the playoff picture. The Broncos try to build off a very impressive fourth quarter against the Browns last week and had another 10 days to get ready for this game. Could the game be a shoot-out that culminates in a last second Jason Elam field goal attempt?

Key to the Game: Broncos Run Game. The way the Broncos can pull off the upset here is by establishing a run game that has been marred by injuries. They will start back-up fullback Peyton Hillis at Halfback and spell in recently returning Tatum Bell.

Fantasy Note: Michael Jenkins will line up against a struggling Karl Paymah this week. Jenkins is averaging over 16 yards per catch this season.

Pick: Falcons. If Denver came up with a game-plan that catches Atlanta completely off guard, during their ten day layoff, then they’ve got a chance. As things stand though, it’s hard to envision how the Broncos can win this game with all their injuries and having to travel to what will be a very excited Georgia Dome.

St. Louis Rams (2-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-7)

Announcers: Matt Vasgersian and JC Pearson

Storylines: Ugh. Martz and Isaac Bruce vs. The Rams. Martz vs. Singletary. Singletary vs. The Overwhelming Need to Drop His Drawers in Front of Grown Men.

Key to the Game: Focus. A game like this between two teams with no hopes of the playoffs will always come down to which team still decides to show up.

Fantasy Note: How will Frank Gore respond to not being called on for that Goal Line Carry on Monday?

Pick: 49ers. Shaun Hill has played well in his two starts and this one will be against a team that appears to have quit. Steven Jackson will not play which means the game is on Marc Bulgers Sore Shoulder and that has been bad news the past couple of seasons for the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-7)

Announcers: Dick Stockton and Brian Baldinger

Storylines: Arizona travels to Qwest Field in their continuing Journey to grab the torch from the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has won the NFC West four straight years. Arizona has not had a division champion in 33 years. Their magic number is 3. The Return of Matt Hasselbeck.

Key to the Game: Penalties. Arizona was flagged 10 times on Monday. They will not get two straight wins playing that sloppy.

Fantasy Note: The return of Matt makes Bobby Engram a solid contender for your third receiver slot.

Pick: Seahawks. I don’t think Matt Hasselbeck being back under center for the Seahawks can be overstated. They will look like a different team and should be the kind of team that is hard to beat at home once again.

Tennessee Titans (9-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)

Announcers: Dick Enberg and Randy Cross

Storylines: The Titans are not hunting down perfection, just another win this week. The Jaguars try to get on track before it is too late. A loss here eliminates the Jags from the division title race.

Key to the Game: Chris Johnson. The Titans dynamic running back will need to bounce back from a terrible week against Chicago and set the tone. The Jags have a much better pass defense than Chicago, so they do not want to ask Kerry Collins to win again this week.

Fantasy Note: Bo Scaife caught ten passes last week and is averaging nearly 50 yards per game. In a weak Tight End year, he is an every week starter.

Pick: Jaguars. Jacksonville is a tough place to play and you have to believe at some point that we will get a glimpse of the Jacksonville team we thought we’d see this year.

San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Storylines: The inconsistent Chargers travel to Heinz Field to take on a Pittsburgh team nursing a lot of injuries. Including those to Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker.

Key to the Game: The Running Backs. Neither The Other LT or Willie Parker has lived up to their expectations this year. If one of them can go for 100-120 yards in this game, that team will win.

Fantasy Note: Tyler Thigpen threw 3 touchdowns in San Diego Last Week. Big Ben, even hurt, is better than Tyler Thigpen.

Pick: Steelers. The Steelers have lost consecutive games at home. They seem unlikely to lose a third. For the talking heads who keep assuming that at some point the Chargers will suddenly become a great team again and are still the favorites to win the west, here’s some things to consider.

The Broncos have the 27th ranked pass defense. The Chargers are 32nd.

The Broncos stink against the run, but the Chargers give up over 100 yards per game as well.

The terrible Broncos defense gives up just 3 more points per game than San Diego.

The Broncos are the Third Best Pass Team in the League. The Chargers are 6th.

The Broncos are struggling at running the ball and are 18th in the league. The Chargers, with their hall of fame back, are 25th.

The Chargers are a sub .500 team. What is it that everybody still loves about them?

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) @ Washington Redskins (6-3)

Announcers: Al Michaels and John Madden

Storylines: It’s the Cowboys-Redskins, what more could you ask for? How about the return of Tony Romo? Will Portis gut it out and play hurt? Will the Cowboy season be saved or ended in Prime Time?

Key to the Game: Jason Campbell. With Portis unlikely to play, it will be up to Jason Campbell who hopes to get his biggest win as a Redskin. He threw two interceptions at home on a Monday Night in his last start.

Fantasy Note: Santana Moss averages 8 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in his last three games against Terrance Newman and the Cowboys.

PIck: Cowboys. I don’t think Romo playing is the difference maker here. Portis not playing is. The Cowboys willl put eight it the box and pin back their ears and get after Campbell. He struggled against the blitz vs. the Steelers.

Cleveland Browns (3-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-4)

Announcers: Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski

Storylines: The Bills try to stop the bleeding at home against a desperate Browns team.

Key to the Game: Brady Quinn. If he can play as smart and efficiently again he gives his team an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Fantasy Note: Kellen Winslow obviously has great chemistry with Quinn. Don’t worry about the mistakes, he will still be a big part of the game plan this week.

Pick: Browns. The Browns play well in Prime Time and Buffalo is still missing some key pieces (most notably Aaron Schoebel). This game could look a lot like the Cleveland-Denver game, though I don’t think the Bills can score 34 right now.

Top 50 Quarterbacks of the Past 25 Years: Number 4

Peyton Manning- Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning was the first overall pick in the 1998 draft and has started every game since. The Colts were very bad in 1998, going 3-13, but the signs that they had their quarterback did not take long to come. Peyton Manning set 5 NFL rookie records, including most touchdowns thrown (26). Peyton was named the QB of the NFL All-Rookie Team. The records continued to come in 1999 when Manning led the best turnaround in NFL History. The Colts went 13-3, improving by 10 wins, and got home-field advantage in the playoffs. Manning lost his first playoff game to the Tennessee Titans and did not play well, completing just 44% of his passes. Manning had his first of a record eight 4,000 yard seasons and threw 26 touchdowns.

In 2000 Manning made his second straight Pro-Bowl and led the league in both yards (4,413) and Touchdowns (33). The Colts went 10-6 and visited Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Manning threw his first playoff touchdown, but again fell short, this time in overtime. Manning threw for 4,100 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2001, but the Colts finished 6-10 and Manning threw 23 interceptions. Much of that can be chalked up to the introduction of the no-huddle offense and their adjustments to it. In 2003, Manning threw for 4,100 yards and 27 touchdowns en route to his third Pro Bowl and the NFL MVP Award. He also had the third perfect quarterback rating of his career and won his first two playoff games. Against the Denver Broncos in the wildcard round, Manning threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns and another perfect QB rating. He also was excellent against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round Shoot-Out. Manning struggled quite a bit against New England in the AFC Title Game and despite his performances in the previous two games was labeled as unable to win the “big one”.

Manning won the MVP Award again in 2004. He broke the NFL Single Season Records for passing touchdowns (49) and passer rating (121.1). The Colts won 12 games and the AFC South. Manning once again destroyed Denver in the opening round throwing for 458 yards and four touchdowns. However, he also once again bombed against New England. Manning lost for the seventh straight time in Foxboro and while most agreed he could someday win the Big Game, most agreed it would never be at the expense of the New England Patriots.

Peyton led the Colts to wins in their first 13 games in 2005. He threw for less than 4,000 yards for the first time in years (3,754) but a lot of that was due to the fact that he played sparingly in the final two games of the season. Manning led the league with a 104.1 Quarterback Rating and threw 28 touchdowns. Though heavily favored against Pittsburgh in the playoffs the Colts lost on a last second field goal miss by Mike Vanderjagt. Manning did make his fifth Pro Bowl.

The Colts won their first 9 in 2006. They finished 12-4 and were the third seed in the AFC Playoffs. Peyton threw for 4,400 yards and 31 touchdowns and led the league in passer rating for the third consecutive season. After defeating the Chiefs and Ravens in the first two rounds, Manning and the Colts prepared to host their rivals the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. After falling behind 21-3, Manning led the biggest comeback in championship game history to win 38-34, after an 80 yard game-winning drive. The Colts defeated the Chicago Bears 29-17 in Super Bowl XLI. Manning was named the game’s MVP throwing for 247 and a touchdown.

Manning made his eighth Pro Bowl in 2007 throwing for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns. The Colts once again earned a first-round bye in the playoffs, but played disappointingly against the San Diego Chargers in loss.

Manning owns sole possession or a share of 38 NFL Passing Records. He owns sole possession or a share of 61 Colts Franchise Records. He is on pace to be the most prolific passer in the history of the league. Nobody has ever run the no-huddle offense better. Manning has thrown for almost 44,000 yards and has thrown 321 touchdowns. His career record is 105-55. Manning is a two-time NFL MVP and a one-time Super Bowl MVP. He will be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer and the BEST Quarterback of his Era. The Brady vs. Manning argument is in many ways a ridiculous one. Who is a better quarterback Terry Bradshaw or Dan Marino? Bob Griese or Warren Moon? Troy Aikman or Brett Favre? It is not all about rings. Peyton Manning is a better quarterback. He is not better than the three above him though, but we’ll save those arguments for later.

Looking Back at Week 3

Atlanta Falcons 38     Kansas City Chiefs 14

Why the Falcons Won: Game Plan. The Falcons ran the ball twice as many times as they threw it. A good strategy when you’re a great running team and have a rookie QB. An even better strategy when the defense is giving up over 5 yards per carry this season. Matt Ryan has done a great job of taking advantage of his strong running game by throwing the deep ball when it’s open down field.

Why the Chiefs Lost: Unlike the Falcons the Chiefs did not protect their rookie QB. They threw the ball 36 times and ran it only 33. Despite conventional knowledge they actually ran it more after they were down by two scores. Herman Edwards continues to not be able to put his team, which is already lacking in talent, in a position to win.

Fantasy Note: Here’s one you may not be expecting. The Falcons Defense. They’ve actually played well this season. They’ve sacked the QB and forced turnovers. Even against the Bucs when the Falcon offense was unproductive, the defense played well.

What It All Means: The Chiefs are terrible. Herm said before the game that if Thigpen struggled he would go back to Huard. I’d love to hear his definition of struggling. They also continued to rein Larry Johnson in until it’s too late for him to matter. This team lacks an identity and it is getting worse. The Falcons meanwhile, are really not a bad team. They play decent defense and they run the ball extremely well. I don’t know if they’re a playoff contender, but they are a team that will compete each week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27     Chicago Bears 24

Why the Bucs Won: Going against the grain. In a game that looked about as old fashioned as possible, the Bucs aired it out. Not only did Brian Griese throw the ball 67 times, he frequently threw in situations that looked like running downs. The Bears were unprepared for this type of offense and it showed especially in the fourth quarter.

Why the Bears Lost: Not for lack of effort. The Bears actually played well especially on the offensive side of the ball. If anything it was purely exhaustion in the fourth quarter and in overtime. It is a lot more tiring to defend the pass than the run and the Bucs exploited that.

Fantasy Note: Sign Antonio Bryant. Jon Gruden likes to throw the ball and feels good about having Griese do that. Bryant was obviously his favorite target on Sunday and figures to remain so. Remember, Griese practiced all summer with the second team along with Bryant, thus the good chemistry.

What it All Means: The Bears are still a playoff contender. Kyle Orton has played fairly well and they have a strong defense and running game, this one got away from them though and may have exposed some weaknesses. The Buccaneers have to feel like they made the right move in going to Griese. He has won both games and played well. Griese had a lot of success previously in the Gruden offense and stretches the field better than Garcia.

Minnesota Vikings 20     Carolina Panthers 10

Why the Vikings Won: The move to Frerotte was certainly part of it as he played really well in the second half and loosened up the box for the Viking run game. The bigger deal though was that Minnesota was finally able to apply pressure. We finally saw an impact from Jared Allen as the Vikings sacked Jake Delhomme 5 times.

Why the Panthers Lost: Crowd Noise. The Panthers had six false start penalties and a critical delay of game i the fourth quarter.

Fantasy Note: Probably most Vikings WR’s are available in your league. Grab Berrian or Sidney Rice as they are much more valuable now that Frerotte is the starter.

What It All Means: Everybody’s pumped up that the Vikings are now what they were supposed to be, but this may have been more a case of the Panthers doing what they always do. The Panthers beat the Chargers and Bears, two teams they were underdogs against. They lost when favored against the Vikings. This team has historically had big problems getting up for teams they’re supposed to beat.

Miami Dolphins 38     New England Patriots 13

Why the Dolphins Won: Creativity. It’s something that we lack in the copycat NFL. The Dolphins ran the single-wing back 8 times in this game and each time with success. The Patriots had no answer for it because they never expected to see it. The Patriots get a lot of credit for adjustments in game, but they made none in this one.

Why the Patriots Lost: Small Field. None of the Patriots backs have the ability to bounce a ball outside and be a home run threat. The passing game is all underneath and all in the middle of the field. Randy Moss had 4 catches for just 25 yards and on the bench started looking like he did in Oakland, sitting away from everybody else.

Fantasy Note: If you have Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams on your bench you clearly have to feel better about each after this game. They work better with Brown starting and Williams coming in to abuse a softened defense.

What It All Means: I think this one is more about the Patriots than the Dolphins. The Dolphins certainly can come out of this one feeling like they have a good 1-2 punch at RB and the right coach as Sparano clearly outcoached Belicheat. The Patriots defense meanwhile was exposed as I’ve been saying it would be. They are very weak in the middle of the field and are old. Anybody who still thinks that the NE system can go on without Brady is crazy.

New York Giants 26     Cincinnati Bengals 23

Why the Giants Won: The Giants offensive line is quickly becoming acknowledged as the best in the league. Not only did they not give up a sack in this game but the Giants Running backs averaged over 6 yards per carry.

Why the Bengals Lost: Questionable clock Management. The Bengals had plenty of time to play for the winning touchdown in regulation, but as is almost always the case in the NFL when a team only needs a field goal, that’s what they play for.

Fantasy Note: Amani Toomer very rarely gets starts in fantasy leagues. I don’t really understand this as he is a very solid 2 or 3 on your team.

What It All Means: While everybody is quick to anoint  the Cowboys as the best team in the NFC, the Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions and  have been very impressive this year.  They continue each week to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Bengals played their best game of the year and still fell short.  One has to believe that we are getting close to this team being broken down and rebuilt.

Tennessee Titans 31     Houston Texans 12

Why the Titans Won: Playing Titans Football. They have the best defense in the league and a running game that can beat you up with LenDale White or explode with Chris Johnson. Kerry Collins is the perfect quarterback for this team as he can make throws that Vince Young was never capable of and does not make the critical mistakes.

Why the Texans Lost: Because Matt Schaub has yet to earn the hype. He was 17 of 37 and threw three interceptions. How this guy became so coveted I never understood and he has never played like the quarterback the Texans thought they were getting.

Fantasy Note: If Steve Slaton can run for over 100 yards on this defense it is scary to think what he’ll do against some other teams.

What It All Means: The Titans are the best team in the AFC right now. They can’t score like Denver, but they don’t have to. They score enough to win and are dominant on defense. The Texans meanwhile are really having problems on offense and while it looks like they may have their running back, I’m not so sure about their quarterback.

Washington Redskins 24    Arizona Cardinals 17

Why the Redskins Won: Turnovers. The Redskins forced two turnovers and turned them into ten points. The Cardinals were not able to come up with any takeaways for the first time this season.

Why the Cardinals Lost: Lack of Rhythm. Kurt Warner has always been a quarterback who excelled when he could get into a tempo within the game. The Redskins took that away by forcing three-and-outs and applying just enough pressure to force Warner to move his feet more than he is comfortable with.

Fantasy Note: Jason Campbell is worth starting at this point. He has gotten better each week and has really gotten things going with Santana Moss.

What It All Means: I don’t usually like to buy into ESPN hyperbole but there is little question as to how tough the NFC East is. So the Redskins looked good the past couple of weeks, but are they even good enough to compete in this division. The Cardinals are better than they used to be, but still not as good as we thought they could be.

Buffalo Bills 24     Oakland Raiders 23

Why the Bills Won: Trent Edwards played poorly for 3 quarters, but found his mojo in the fourth quarter for the second straight week. He is quickly becoming the kind of quarterback that keeps Bills fans in their seats until the last snap no matter what.

Why the Raiders Lost: While the Raiders were able to come up with some big plays and played well on defense, they were extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball. They had only 10 first downs in the game and threw only 3 passes in the second half, despite the fact that one of those passes was an 80+ yard TD. The defense played well, but couldn’t get stops when they needed them in the fourth quarter.

Fantasy Note: If you took Manning or Palmer early and got Edwards late, you may want to think about doing the unthinkable. Edwards has been consistent and gets more comfortable in the offense every week.

What It All Means: The Bills are in that conversation for best AFC team. They are good in all three aspects of the game. They still have not given Dick Jauron a contract extension beyond this season. The Raiders do not look to be giving Lane Kiffin an extension either, but rather his walking papers. Same Old Raiders.

San Francisco 49ers 31     Detroit Lions 13

Why the Niners Won: Aggressiveness. Certain 49er fans I know complained all last season about the Niners running draws on 3rd and 11 and never throwing down field. That does not seem to be an issue anymore. Mike Martz clearly held some animosity towards the Lions. On 4th and 1 with a two touchdown lead the Niners ran an End Around to Allen Rossum for a TD. Then with a 15 point lead and six minutes left in the game the 49ers recovered their own onside kick.

Why the Lions Lost: The Lions could not create any pressure in this game and were once again down by two touchdowns early in the game.

Fantasy Note: Rudi Johnson replaced Kevin Smith in the game and had 117 yards and a touchdown.

What It All Means: To me the 49ers are the favorite to win the NFC West. They have a very good defense and the offense is starting to come together. The Lions meanwhile are terrible and are showing no signs of improving.

Seattle Seahawks 37     St. Louis Rams 13

Why the Seahawks Won: They found their running game. Julius Jones ran for 140 yards and as a team they ran for 240. TJ Duckett added 2 TD’s and for at least a week they answered how they can win without their prolific pass game.

Why the Rams Lost: No offense. 65 rushing yards and another week with a subpar passing game. This team has steadily gone downhill since Scott Linehan got there and you have to wonder when he will join Kiffin on the scrap heap.

Fantasy Note: Julius Jones had his second straight really good week with 140 yards and a TD. He is proving that he was really under appreciated in  Dallas.

What It All Means: I don’t know how much it means. I think we knew we couldn’t completely count out Holmgren or the Hawks, but beating a dismal Ram team does not mean they are back. Is Chase Daniel the best QB playing in the state of Missouri?

Baltimore Ravens 28     Cleveland Browns 10

Why the Ravens Won: Ball Control. The Ravens held the ball for 15 minutes longer than the Browns. That’s a full quarter more of ball possession. The Browns meanwhile went three-and-out or turned the ball over on half of their drives.

Why the Browns Lost: Weren’t the Browns supposed to be good now? In truth they closed last season 1-2 and scored just 3 touchdowns in those games. This year they are 0-3 and have just 33 points. It’s time for a change in Cleveland.

Fantasy Note: If you haven’t already, bench your Browns. Derek Anderson’s days as a starter are short, Jamal Lewis needs a strong pass game to open lanes for him and sit Braylon Edwards until he convinces you otherwise. Brandon Marshall had more catches and yards in the first half last week than Braylon has all season.

What It All Means: Maybe the Dog Days aren’t over in Cleveland, but at least the old Browns look much better than expected. That’s gotta make Browns fans feel good right? Right?

Jacksonville Jaguars 23     Indianapolis Colts 21

Why the Jaguars Won: By being the team they were last year. Second half time of possession was 16 minutes for Jax and only 4 for the Colts. Yeah, the Colts made the most of their time with the ball, but it is hard to beat the Jaguars when they are able to control the clock.

Why the Colts Lost: An over-dependence on Bob Sanders. This team’s run defense is built around a safety. They are weak at DT and MLB, which is exposed any time Sanders is not in the lineup and this week was no different as the Jags ran for 220 yards on the Colts.

Fantasy Note: If you were getting nervous about the Jaguars running tandem, hopefully this game put you at ease. The Jaguars played the Titans and Bills in the first two weeks, most weeks will not be against defenses that strong.

What It All Means: I called for it in the pre-season but didn’t really believe it. I am really starting to think this current Colts team’s run is over. The defense does not look good and the offense just doesn’t have the same rhythm. The Jaguars are the 0-2 team that I thought was still a strong playoff contender and this game only makes me more confident of that fact.

Philadelphia Eagles 15     Pittsburgh Steelers 6

Why the Eagles Won: 4th Quarter Field Position. The Eagles didn’t do anything in the fourth quarter on offense and in fact had to punt three times in the quarter. But each of those punts pinned the Steelers inside the twenty and the Philadelphia front seven took over from there.

Why the Steelers Lost: Offensive Line Breakdown. It was the biggest concern about the Steelers coming into the season and for the second straight week the Pittsburgh O-Line was underwhelming. The Eagles recorded 8 sacks and the Steelers were unable to run the ball.

Fantasy Note: Not much fantasy news to come out of this kind of game. If Brian Westbrook is out, go ahead and pick up Buckhalter.

What It All Means: After a dominant week 1 performance over the Texans, everybody thought the Steelers might be the favorite in the AFC. After the past two weeks you have to start asking if they are the favorites in their division. They probably are, but do not look like a Super Bowl contender. The Eagles on the other hand are as they have proven they can compete in shoot-outs or this kind of hard-hitting affair.

Denver Broncos 34     New Orleans Saints 32

Why the Broncos Won: Believe it or not I’m going with the defense. I know they gave up way too many yards and points, but the truth is they came up big when they had to. Not only did they score points, but they got the goal line stand that provided a 5 point swing in the game and kept the Saints from getting into an easier field goal position at the end of the game.

Why the Saints Lost: To Be Or Not To Be Aggressive. Sean Payton was very aggressive at the end of the first half going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 and coming up short. Had he kicked the field goal this game may have already been tied when the Saints were driving late. Then with nearly two minutes left in the game and facing 3rd and 1 instead of trying anything creative or aggressive the Saints simply tried to run off-tackle which they had been unable to do all day. Not only did that keep them from getting closer to the field goal, it also kept the clock from running down. Even if Gramatica had hit the field goal, anybody want to bet against Cutler getting his team in field goal position with two minutes left?

Fantasy Note: Brandon Marshall is currently the best receiver in the game. I don’t care what the match-up is or who else you have on your team, start Marshall. I say this because on Yahoo! last week Marshall was only starting in 84% of the leagues. What the hell are the rest of you doing?

What It All Means: ESPN had every show asking if the Broncos were good or lucky. Last week was debatable, this week was certainly not. If you only watched SportsCenter highlights or listened to the analysts you may think the Broncos but if you watched the game you know they got more critical stops than the Saints and were clearly the better team on the field. If not for a questionable fumble call against Tony Scheffler The Saints aren’t even in the game at the end.

Dallas Cowboys 27         Green Bay Packers 16

Why the Cowboys Won: Ground Control. The Cowboys outrushed the Packers 217-84.

Why the Packers Lost: Lack of Balance. The Packers started to believe their own press about Rodgers. He’s played well but their is no reason for them to call 44 pass plays to only 16 rushes.

Fantasy Note: If you have a three back league or a weak backfield Felix Jones is worth starting, particularly if your league counts return yards.

San Diego Chargers 48         New York Jets 29

Why the Chargers Won: Offensive consistency. The Chargers had the ball 11 times, they punted only once. They scored TD’s in the red zone and were very good at converting on the few times they were actually taken to third down.

Why the Jets Lost: Offensive Inconsistency. The Jets came up with good plays early and late but disappeared in the middle of the game. A note I didn’t know but found on NFL.com, Brett Favre who is known as somewhat of a comeback guy has never won a game where his team trailed by 14 or more points.

Fantasy Note: If anybody is playing as well as Cutler right now it is, unfortunately, Philip Rivers. You should definitely be starting him. All the talk of LT be back is greatly exaggerated, yeah he had 2 TD’s which looked good on fantasy teams, but again averaged under 3 yards per carry.

What It All Means: The Chargers are still a contender and if Denver doesn’t cure their defensive woes then they could still win the west. The Jets meanwhile are still a work in progress. In their favor, in a couple of weeks their schedule gets easier and could enable them to get back into contention.

Steals from Fantasy Drafts after two weeks

We are two weeks into the season and as every year there are late round Fantasy Draft picks that make or break your season. I will go into in this article draft picks after the 6th round that may have been available and are really making an impact in the Fantasy World.

These average draft positions are based off of a Standard 10 team league.

The first guy I need to touch base on is making me bleed Orange and Blue and craving (as Thec says) some orange kool-aid. Jay Cutler was ranked on most pre-draft boards no higher than 10th for quarterbacks. Coming into week 3 he is ranked as a must start and nabbing tons of votes for best Fantasy QB option. TMR (from ESPN) fantasy panel (4 panelists) gave him 2 out of 4 1st place votes and a 2nd and a 3rd only behind Tony Romo and Peyton Manning (Probably based off of a matchup). Cutler averaged being taken in the 6th to 7th round. I got him in my family draft in the 4th round because I expected big things from Cutler and there were a few Bronco fans ahead of me that I knew would grab him. In another league I got him in the 7th round. He is on pace to have “Brady like” numbers this year. He will NOT be a sleeper next year. More than likely ranking in the top 5 unless there is a falloff. Doubtful.

Santana Moss the past couple of years has been dismal at best. Often getting ranked high and drafted high and never producing huge numbers. He didn’t catch a touchdown last year until week 7 or 8. This year he has had two decent games. He grabbed a touchdown in week 1 against a good Giants D. He had a monster game against the Saints. So far he has 12 receptions, 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was available in most leagues after the 7th to 8th round. He and Jason Campbell seem to be working really well together.

Hines Ward so far has been a steal, producing better numbers than Holmes who went higher than Ward in most draft rooms. Ward has 11 catches for 135 yards and 3 TD’s. I do see his numbers falling off. So far he is producing above his value.

The next guy is another QB from the AFC West. I don’t think his numbers will hold up but so far he has Fantasy owners salivating. Philip Rivers was being taken either late 9th round or early 10th round averaging around the 98th pick in the draft. So far he matches Cutler’s TD to INT ratio 6/1. He has thrown for 594 yards in the 2 week span. A lot of this has to do with the shootout against Denver and Denver’s secondary not playing to it’s potential yet. Just think, these guys were drafted above Rivers. Bulger, Shaub, Garrard, Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson.

Chris Chambers was picked right around round number 9. So far this year he has 5 catches for 127 yards and 3 TD’s. If Rivers keeps playing at this high level it could be big things to continue for Chambers.

Chris Johnson is a rookie playing for the Tennessee Titans. Johnsons average draft round was rounds 12-13. Some leagues he isn’t even owned yet. If he isn’t you should grab him immediately. He is averaging over 100 yards a game in his first two NFL starts and over 5 yards a carry. Lendale White is vulturing goal line carries currently, but Johnson is a threat from any spot on the field to go the distance and he is a solid receiver out of the backfield.

There are other guys that have been putting up good numbers so far but I cannot cover everyone. After week 3, I will look at guys who were taken too high or given to much value. The ever dreadful… bust of Fantasy Drafts. Some of these names may include Larry Johnson, LT, Ryan Grant, Carson Palmer, Ocho Cinco and others.

Hardcore

Fantasy Football Rankings

Today we will use the Fantasy Football Toolbox to assess who the experts think is stronger at various positions in the AFC West this year. You can then compare notes with the posting I made several weeks ago on that subject.

Quarterbacks

1. Jay Cutler- Number 11 overall quarterback.

2. Philip Rivers- Number 20 overall quarterback.

3. Brodie Croyle- Number 28 overall quarterback.

4. JaMarcus Russell- Number 31 overall quarterback.

People smarter than me think Jay Cutler is nearly a top 10 quarterback in the league already. 21 starts in. The only starter Russell is projected higher than is Kyle Boller and that’s only because they’re not sure he’ll start. Grossman, Tarvaris, Chris Redman and John Beck are all seen as better than JaMarcus Russell. Not me saying so, that’s according to the Number 1 Fantasy Football draft site on the internet.

Running Backs

1. Ladainian Tomlinson- Number 1 overall running back.

2. Larry Johnson- Number 7 overall running back.

3. Darren McFadden- Number 17 overall running back.

4. Selvin Young- Number 20 overall running back.

5. Ryan Torain- Number 44 overall running back.

6. Justin Fargas- Number 49 overall running back.

Tomlinson is obvious. Johnson is the second most talented back in the division, although health is a concern. Raiders fans should note that Toolbox projects Darren McFadden to exactly one more point than Selvin Young per week. The difference between them is McFadden was a top 5 pick and Selvin Young was undrafted. The experts were also so blown away by by Fargas’ 1000 yard season that they project an unproven and injured rookie ahead of him.

Wide Receivers

1. Brandon Marshall- Number 15 overall wide receiver.

2. Dwayne Bowe- Number 25 overall wide receiver.

3. Javon Walker- Number 36 overall wide receiver.

4. Chris Chambers- Number 37 overall wide receiver.

5. Vincent Jackson- Number 48 overall wide receiver.

. Brandon Stokely- Number 60 overall wide receiver.

Once again you’ll notice a lack of depth for the Raiders and Chiefs. Javon Walker got a healthy contract in the offseason. He is projected behind 4 number two receivers. If he plays all year, this projection of Marshall will end up being low also.

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates- Number 1 overall Tight End.

2. Tony Gonzales- Number 4 overall Tight End.

3. Tony Scheffler- Number 8 overall Tight End.

4. Zach Miller- Number 17 overall Tight End.

5. Daniel Graham- Number 34 overall Tight End.

Even I’m surprised to see Scheffler listed so high. But again, they’re the experts. I’m often accused of basing my blogs on blinded opinion. I would disagree and say I offer up for more facts and stats than most, but you’ll see here that those with no bias still have the Raiders listed 3rd or fourth in every offensive position. Daniel Graham being the fifth tight end just goes to show again that Denver has great depth. An asset missing last year.